Texas Winter 2024-2025

[txtwister78]

Definitely warmer run. Drops a bunch of sleet over DFW and still ends as snow but the accumulations continue to be laughable on its snowfall output (at least on WeatherBell).

[Cpv17]

The 18z GFS is detecting something major happening in the LR, but it’s definitely having trouble figuring it out, which is to be expected at this range.

[Iceresistance]

Are we in the mid-range still for the upcoming system? And are the models shoving the cold off too quickly?

[snownado]

Definitely warmer run. Drops a bunch of sleet over DFW and still ends as snow but the accumulations continue to be laughable on its snowfall output (at least on WeatherBell).

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/sleet_total/1736186400/1736694000-Y90G25NAQm0.png

And with that, I'm stepping back...

[txtwister78]

Are we in the mid-range still for the upcoming system? And are the models shoving the cold off too quickly?

We don't really have true arctic cold in place. The reason temps are going to be "colder" Wed and Thurs is because you have cloud cover and then very low dewpoints initially and where precip falls temps will also fall a bit (evaporative cooling/dynamic cooling) and so this event is largely driven by temps at the mid and upper levels. So if those are warmer than you're going to get rain/sleet or even freezing rain if it's cold enough at the surface. The trend with the globals has been to bring up more warm air courtesy of this coastal low to complicate precip types further north.

[TheAustinMan]

A little messy spaghetti concerning where the freezing line at 850 hPa might be Thursday morning. This was with the 12z deterministic guidance and the 15z SREF. Will be interesting (or stressful) to see how this changes, especially as we start to get into the range of more mesoscale guidance. The 18z models seemed to trend warmer relative to what's shown here, but it can just as easily trend back in the opposite direction.

[Harp.1]

Gfs drops the Arctic hammer at the end of the run. Fun for everyone.

[cajungal]

Gfs drops the Arctic hammer at the end of the run. Fun for everyone.

Not falling for it this early. got burned this week

[txtwister78]

A little messy spaghetti concerning where the freezing line at 850 hPa might be Thursday morning. This was with the 12z deterministic guidance and the 15z SREF. Will be interesting (or stressful) to see how this changes, especially as we start to get into the range of more mesoscale guidance. The 18z models seemed to trend warmer relative to what's shown here, but it can just as easily trend back in the opposite direction.

https://i.imgur.com/3xrTmTS.png

Great graphic. Yeah where this coastal low is positioned during the main precip event as you can track via various models when examining the 850 temp profile will ultimately decide precip types further north. NAM definitely one of the coldest but not in range yet of the HRRR which usually has the best handle on these.

[Cpv17]

Gfs drops the Arctic hammer at the end of the run. Fun for everyone.

It’s trying to spill Siberia into the lower 48.

[Ntxw]

Gfs drops the Arctic hammer at the end of the run. Fun for everyone.

It’s trying to spill Siberia into the lower 48.

PNA neutral going negative, MJO strengthening and slowing in P8-1-2. Interesting it is slowing down going to P1.

[Harp.1]

Gfs drops the Arctic hammer at the end of the run. Fun for everyone.

It’s trying to spill Siberia into the lower 48.

PNA neutral going negative, MJO strengthening and slowing in P8-1-2. Interesting it is slowing down going to P1.

Can you explain? Thanks

[Ntxw]

It’s trying to spill Siberia into the lower 48.

PNA neutral going negative, MJO strengthening and slowing in P8-1-2. Interesting it is slowing down going to P1.

Can you explain? Thanks

Of course! Alaskan blocking will be a little better and a deep trough can settle into the western and central US with the weaker PNA. Should be a ridge in the west Atlantic, all this angles cold air more into the heartland. Tropics with the slower MJO will linger in the 'good' phases a little longer.

[Ralph's Weather]

It never got to 40 here and now back down to 33 already.

[aggiecutter]

Nearly all the 18Z models are warmer. Stronger low in GOM and closer to the coast.

[Cpv17]

It’s trying to spill Siberia into the lower 48.

PNA neutral going negative, MJO strengthening and slowing in P8-1-2. Interesting it is slowing down going to P1.

Can you explain? Thanks

Phases 8,1,& 2 of the MJO are good phases for cold for us during the winter.

[Brent]

I drove back from Kansas City this morning and there's still ice and snow on my car even after the car wash!!

[Ntxw]

I drove back from Kansas City this morning and there's still ice and snow on my car even after the car wash!!

Are you going to do a chase south or hope for the best in Tulsa?

[rwfromkansas]

Well. I wished I moved to Denton County sometimes. Lol. I get some sleet on that Euro run.

Getting too north…

Hopefully the high-res runs help.

[TropicalTundra]

Some light strips of snow forming in the SE corner of NM. Might shift over Midland but it looks really dry