Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Brent]

at the end of the day it is just weather.

How dare you

Right? I'm offended

[txtwister78]

0z HRRR 2m temps at 0z Thu are 5-6 degrees colder than the gfs, 4-5 degrees colder than the icon, and 2-3 degrees colder than the euro.

This is the bigger trend you want to watch really. 850 temps HRRR vs GFS at 6pm Wednesday evening. Surface temps not really as critical for this particular event other than where freezing rain may be an issue. Still no precipitation on the HRRR at this range which you sort of want to start seeing soon show up if this is going to go more snow across areas further north.

[cheezyWXguy]

0z HRRR 2m temps at 0z Thu are 5-6 degrees colder than the gfs, 4-5 degrees colder than the icon, and 2-3 degrees colder than the euro.

This is the bigger trend you want to watch really. 850 temps HRRR vs GFS at 6pm Wednesday evening. Surface temps not really as critical for this particular event other than where freezing rain may be an issue. Still no precipitation on the HRRR at this range which you sort of want to start seeing soon show up if this is going to go more snow across areas further north.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/t850/1736186400/1736380800-CuwGoqM4KBU.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/t850/1736208000/1736380800-PYrELIoEJuc.png

Ha, agreed. I’m using TT since I’m on mobile right now, and they don’t have 850mb temps on that site for the HRRR so I’m stuck with 2m. Thanks for posting those.

[TropicalTundra]

Not on other radars yet but on NWS Radar there are slight bands of some sort of precip slightly SW of Abilene and NNE of Midland.

[txtwister78]

Incoming NAM...system looks a bit deeper and a little further south. Could be a decent run.

[wxman22]

The 0z NAM

[TropicalTundra]

Not on other radars yet but on NWS Radar there are slight bands of some sort of precip slightly SW of Abilene and NNE of Midland.

[txtwister78]

Definitely warmer though upstairs. Not as much sleet indication of that except over DFW.

[snownado]

Let's lock in the 00z NAM and call it good....

[bubba hotep]

DFW getting NAM'ed!

[bubba hotep]

Also, a crippling ice storm

[cheezyWXguy]

DFW getting NAM'ed!

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2025010700/078/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Yeah, I’m good with that lol. And if taken verbatim the only reason Dallas county’s accumulations are lower here is because of that brief period that it changes over to sleet. If it stays all snow it should be fairly consistent with Tarrant and Collin. I don’t mind rolling dice with amounts like that on the table.

[cheezyWXguy]

Also, a crippling ice storm

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2025010700/084/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Not as big of a fan of this part though…

[rwfromkansas]

Lock it in. I would get more snow than my hometown with that run. Lol.

[iorange55]

NAM looks colder. I saw one met mention a moderate concern for a major ice storm from Austin to Waco area.

Still not seeing a ton of opportunity for freezing rain though? I’d think it would mainly be sleet. Perhaps that’s changing though?

In any event, temps down here would like be at 32, so side streets would likely be fine. But one thing to remember is that trees and power lines ice easily, so that’s something to consider, even if temps are hovering around 31 or 32.

[Brent]

Suddenly up here our met is now hyping the storm and said the weekend may not warm up...

TWC has mid 40s this weekend

[bubba hotep]

On the 00z ICON, the Baja Low continues to trend slower, and the vort max crashing down the Rockies is also slower but looks more consolidated.

[Texas Snow]

850 freezing line on ICON Thursday moves NW from its 18z. I may go to bed and try again tomorrow with hi res.

Wish I would have shut down after that NAM at my house.

[bubba hotep]

850 freezing line on ICON Thursday moves NW from its 18z. I may go to bed and try again tomorrow with hi res.

Maybe a slower ejection allows for a longer period of return flow.

[Gotwood]

Damn ICON says no snow for DFW lol