Texas Winter 2024-2025

[TropicalTundra]

I’ve seen several reports of flurries in Mineral Wells tonight posted on Facebook

There’s a decent area of precip west of FW which might be what they’re talking about. Still not moist enough for any real snow despite radar looking pretty

[Ntxw]

I’ve seen several reports of flurries in Mineral Wells tonight posted on Facebook

There’s a decent area of precip west of FW which might be what they’re talking about. Still not moist enough for any real snow despite radar looking pretty

https://ibb.co/Lh0L6qC

Nothing overhead here falling. Maybe someone out west where returns are a little stronger from Mineral Wells to Palo Pinto.

[rwfromkansas]

Upon seeing the RAP, to quote Seinfeld….I think it moved.

Geez. Good to see some QPF increases.

The GFS even gets me back into it in Tarrant.

Hoping for more western expansion for folks out there.

[Brandon8181]

The challenge now moves to our NWS office. I truly feel for them as I think this is one of the most difficult winter storm forecast I’ve seen since I’ve been following weather since I was about 8 years old. Based on more recent runs are they confident enough to move into warning criteria by Wednesday night, or do they put an advisory out across the area?

My opinion is as long as there isn’t severe changes in the morning which is certainly possible, I think there is enough information to move forward with a Winter Storm warning area wide.

[Ralph's Weather]

The challenge now moves to our NWS office. I truly feel for them as I think this is one of the most difficult winter storm forecast I’ve seen since I’ve been following weather since I was about 8 years old. Based on more recent runs are they confident enough to move into warning criteria by Wednesday night, or do they put an advisory out across the area?

My opinion is as long as there isn’t severe changes in the morning which is certainly possible, I think there is enough information to move forward with a Winter Storm warning area wide.

What the heck does SHV do with the southern tier of its watch? I think you go warning but some argument that a lot could fall as plain rain.
By tomorrow night depending on models tomorrow much of the state could be under advisories. Or the other direction and it's just advisories north of I20. So many questions.

[Ntxw]

UKMET is still a no for anyone south of the Red River.

[txtwister78]

WRF-FV3

[txtwister78]

WRF-ARW (48 hours)

[cstrunk]

The challenge now moves to our NWS office. I truly feel for them as I think this is one of the most difficult winter storm forecast I’ve seen since I’ve been following weather since I was about 8 years old. Based on more recent runs are they confident enough to move into warning criteria by Wednesday night, or do they put an advisory out across the area?

My opinion is as long as there isn’t severe changes in the morning which is certainly possible, I think there is enough information to move forward with a Winter Storm warning area wide.

What the heck does SHV do with the southern tier of its watch? I think you go warning but some argument that a lot could fall as plain rain.
By tomorrow night depending on models tomorrow much of the state could be under advisories. Or the other direction and it's just advisories north of I20. So many questions.

My heart is telling me it'll work out for us along I-20 but my brain is telling me trillions of wet tears will fall from the sky...

Need to see some kind of consensus before going all in. I can already hear everyone complaining if we get placed under warnings and we end up with 1.5" cold rain and 13 ice pellets. Hopefully tomorrow provides more clarity than mud.

[Stratton23]

An hour later and the CMC is still not loading, seems like wxman57 hacked it

[txtwister78]

SRF Mean (wild swings on this one)

[txtwister78]

And last one...just out NBM (blend of models). Little uptick in snow further south on this one compared to previous run.

[Ralph's Weather]

My heart is telling me it'll work out for us along I-20 but my brain is telling me trillions of wet tears will fall from the sky...

Need to see some kind of consensus before going all in. I can already hear everyone complaining if we get placed under warnings and we end up with 1.5" cold rain and 13 ice pellets. Hopefully tomorrow provides more clarity than mud.

I know it, range of outcome is large down here.

[Harp.1]

Looking ahead, there is nothing on the op GFS. I hope the ensembles look differently.

[Cpv17]

Looking ahead, there is nothing on the op GFS. I hope the ensembles look differently.

The op GFS had one good run yesterday at 18z. Crickets since. Been showing troughing in Alaska, no bueno. Ensembles have looked better though, which is more important in the LR anyway.

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 do not focus on the operational run that far out, the ensembles are in very good agreement on the overall patterm with the trough over the central US and a -EPO Alaskan ridge, this far out the operational models are going to be extremely volatile and not that reliable

[DW5522]

I mowed my backyard as short as I could today just in case we don’t get much. 1” and she will at least be pretty to look at.

[txtwister78]

CMC coming in a tad bit warmer upstairs...as a result puts down some sleet and more freezing rain into DFW with temps around 30-32.

[Brandon8181]

CMC coming in a tad bit warmer upstairs...as a result puts down some sleet and more freezing rain into DFW with temps around 30-32.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/instant_ptype/1736294400/1736478000-QUWapoA5xkA.png

I would still say overall a positive run especially compared to how early today and last night have been.

[Stratton23]

CMC has freezing rain in parts of northern houston, some sleet down near i-10 lol