Texas Winter 2024-2025

[WacoWx]

Cloudy here near DFW airport. Vis sat shows more streaming clouds out west. Was supposed to be sunny all day.

[orangeblood]

I am just a bit surprised. I went to bed with talk that the warm nose was very shallow and could be overcome.

Now, it's a nothingburger despite the warning?

Just whiplash around here.

This is why IMO we should most closely follow the NWS and their forecasts. They don't fluctuate wildly like folks here do on every model run. Their forecasts are measured and carefully considered. Besides with Texas winter weather, it's always best to expect getting the nada enchilada even if you've ordered the fajitas.

100%. Great words of advice to follow folks for future winter weather events. Also keep in mind some of these model snowfall outputs are "contaminated" with sleet being converted to all snow and so that makes the snowfall accumulation map on various sites seem much higher than reality. That's why you'll sometime read from NWS offices in their forecast discussions about cautioning public from relying too heavily on some snowfall map plastered all over social media.

Best to go with blends which is why I share the NMB on here because it's easy to get model whiplash especially the further out one goes. NWS offices have never wavered much throughout and as mentioned before that comes with training and more importantly experience over the years of pattern recognition/ previous events and being able to forecast based off those experiences.

IMHO probably best to grade the FW NWS office performance after an event occurs, not before

[Fifty Rock]

Social Media hyped this up. They got thier clicks/payouts with no ramifications.

At this point I fully expect to be at work both Thursday and Friday and my kids to have school.

Temps are just too warm. Roads will be passable and we Texans just need to suck it up and stop expecting we just close down for one snow flake.

I mean snow is just frozen rain. Not like we haven't seen precipitation fall before........

Still though, it hurts because of how close this was to what could have been

In the words of one of the greatest minds of our time, "What can be, unburdened by what has been".

In their case I would say, “burdened by what has been, Unburdened by what will be”

[snownado]

https://youtu.be/nAiE9fJbVd4?feature=shared

My hero!

Per the comments in the video, that was a skit.

But still very convincing and funny, lol...

[snownado]

:spam:

Still though, it hurts because of how close this was to what could have been

In the words of one of the greatest minds of our time, "What can be, unburdened by what has been".

In their case I would say, “burdened by what has been, Unburdened by what will be”

You know, that wasn't even intentional. But it did occur to me after making the post that my comment was awfully similar to that quote and I suspected someone would pick up on it...

[BradKingK]

This is why IMO we should most closely follow the NWS and their forecasts. They don't fluctuate wildly like folks here do on every model run. Their forecasts are measured and carefully considered. Besides with Texas winter weather, it's always best to expect getting the nada enchilada even if you've ordered the fajitas.

100%. Great words of advice to follow folks for future winter weather events. Also keep in mind some of these model snowfall outputs are "contaminated" with sleet being converted to all snow and so that makes the snowfall accumulation map on various sites seem much higher than reality. That's why you'll sometime read from NWS offices in their forecast discussions about cautioning public from relying too heavily on some snowfall map plastered all over social media.

Best to go with blends which is why I share the NMB on here because it's easy to get model whiplash especially the further out one goes. NWS offices have never wavered much throughout and as mentioned before that comes with training and more importantly experience over the years of pattern recognition/ previous events and being able to forecast based off those experiences.

IMHO probably best to grade the FW NWS office performance after an event occurs, not before

Yes, there have been recent events (last 5-7 years) when they totally missed on a frozen precip forecast and had to pivot at literally the last minute. I understand they need to be somewhat conservative, but sometimes I think they should at least be open to discussing the possibilities on the margins.

[HockeyTx82]

https://youtu.be/nAiE9fJbVd4?feature=shared

My hero!

Per the comments in the video, that was a skit.

But still very convincing and funny, lol...

Yeah I know, it was funny. I just wanted to share. I was looking up epic weather meltdowns.

[rwfromkansas]

https://youtu.be/nAiE9fJbVd4?feature=shared

My hero!

Per the comments in the video, that was a skit.

But still very convincing and funny, lol...

Yeah, he's a comedian. But, it was very good. One of the best ones I've seen.

[snownado]

Oh, the betrayal of the heavens! The forecast, that shimmering beacon of hope, has deceived us all! We were promised a winter wonderland, a pristine blanket of white to transform our mundane existence into a magical frosty fairytale. But alas, the snowflakes have conspired against us!

Excitement bubbled in our hearts, only to be cruelly extinguished by the harsh reality of it fizzling out. The sky, once filled with the promise of a snowy embrace, now mocks us with its empty, gray void. Where are our frosted rooftops, our snow-draped trees, our perfectly Instagrammable moments of catching snowflakes on our tongues?

And what of the children, with their sleds and snow boots, eagerly awaiting their moment of winter glory? Their dreams of snowball fights and snowmen, now shattered like fragile icicles on a warm day. The sheer injustice of it all! It's as if Mother Nature herself has pulled the greatest prank of the season, leaving us with nothing but cold disappointment and wet, slushy sidewalks.

We shall remember this day, the day the snow failed us, and we will recount this tale of woe to future generations. We will endure, but the sting of this letdown will not soon be forgotten. The sky may clear, but our hearts remain clouded with the ghost of the snow that never was.

Not sure this is applicable until Friday if nothing comes to fruition. Plenty of snow is still in the cards.

Yes, I don't want anyone to get the wrong impression....this absolutely can turn into a winter wonderland with 6" plus amounts over a wide area of North Texas but it's not 2014 or 2021 ice/snow maggedon, more like Feb 2010

Yes, but it's also fair to emphasize the probability of such an outcome is now much lower than it was 48 or even 24 hours ago.

[txtwister78]

This is why IMO we should most closely follow the NWS and their forecasts. They don't fluctuate wildly like folks here do on every model run. Their forecasts are measured and carefully considered. Besides with Texas winter weather, it's always best to expect getting the nada enchilada even if you've ordered the fajitas.

100%. Great words of advice to follow folks for future winter weather events. Also keep in mind some of these model snowfall outputs are "contaminated" with sleet being converted to all snow and so that makes the snowfall accumulation map on various sites seem much higher than reality. That's why you'll sometime read from NWS offices in their forecast discussions about cautioning public from relying too heavily on some snowfall map plastered all over social media.

Best to go with blends which is why I share the NMB on here because it's easy to get model whiplash especially the further out one goes. NWS offices have never wavered much throughout and as mentioned before that comes with training and more importantly experience over the years of pattern recognition/ previous events and being able to forecast based off those experiences.

IMHO probably best to grade the FW NWS office performance after an event occurs, not before

Well to be fair IMHO, I don't think any of them were screaming a foot of snow based off one model leading up to this or talking about shutdowns for "2-3 days" and so sure I think it's wise to evaluate post event, but I also think the point being made was keep everything in perspective when evaluating these winter weather events beforehand (especially down in this region) where complexities of all the factors at play are more real than just looking at a model run.

[Ntxw]

So is it looking like it won't be phasing after all, or is it phasing but tracking more north instead of digging enough to keep us cold enough?

Someone can correct me on this if I’m wrong, but if anything the 500mb pattern looks a little better than it did yesterday. The secondary shortwave comes down a little faster and combines with the primary to form a bit beefier of a trough. I suspect this is why most of the models at least maintain high qpfs if not slightly increase them. At this point I think we’ve improved back close to baseline and are just watching as to whether cold or warm air advection wins the battle.

I agree with you here! There's always nuances we can pick out but overall the models have converged and highlight a general area of threat in the northeastern part of the state (and adjacent areas for lighter amounts/mix issues.) At 500mb the differences are not as great, naturally, than some days ago. It's all about thermals now and what happens real time vs models. For me it's been a fascinating ride following 500mb given we have not seen a true baja cutoff in some time now. It's been fast flow all day every day.

[Ralph's Weather]

Not sure this is applicable until Friday if nothing comes to fruition. Plenty of snow is still in the cards.

Yes, I don't want anyone to get the wrong impression....this absolutely can turn into a winter wonderland with 6" plus amounts over a wide area of North Texas but it's not 2014 or 2021 ice/snow maggedon, more like Feb 2010

Yes, but it's also fair to emphasize the probability of such an outcome is now much lower than it was 48 or even 24 hours ago.

I do not think it is much lower though, if anything models have converged on the fact that there is a high likelihood of >1" QPF that mostly falls as something frozen. Yesterday there were some models still questioning that. The models that have been saying huge amounts are still showing huge amounts.

[Ntxw]

I-30 north would like the CMC run. Especially Collin County

Also wanted to reiterate again precip depiction maps are not all the same on every site, it is dependent on that site's algorithm to figure out what is snow or whatever else. Soundings is your best bet.

[TXTiger10]

:spam:

In the words of one of the greatest minds of our time, "What can be, unburdened by what has been".

In their case I would say, “burdened by what has been, Unburdened by what will be”

You know, that wasn't even intentional. But it did occur to me after making the post that my comment was awfully similar to that quote and I suspected someone would pick up on it...

[BradKingK]

So is it looking like it won't be phasing after all, or is it phasing but tracking more north instead of digging enough to keep us cold enough?

Someone can correct me on this if I’m wrong, but if anything the 500mb pattern looks a little better than it did yesterday. The secondary shortwave comes down a little faster and combines with the primary to form a bit beefier of a trough. I suspect this is why most of the models at least maintain high qpfs if not slightly increase them. At this point I think we’ve improved back close to baseline and are just watching as to whether cold or warm air advection wins the battle.

I agree with you here! There's always nuances we can pick out but overall the models have converged and highlight a general area of threat in the northeastern part of the state (and adjacent areas for lighter amounts/mix issues.) At 500mb the differences are not as great, naturally, than some days ago. It's all about thermals now and what happens real time vs models. For me it's been a fascinating ride following 500mb given we have not seen a true baja cutoff in some time now. It's been fast flow all day every day.

What are the potential ramifications/differences of this being a cutoff low versus not?

[bubba hotep]

I-30 north would like the CMC run. Especially Collin County

Also wanted to reiterate again precip depiction maps are not all the same on every site, it is dependent on that site's algorithm to figure out what is snow or whatever else. Soundings is your best bet.

RGEM & Can put that 2" QPF band farther NW than the American models. Put 2" of QPF IMBY and I'm booking 10"+ of snow.

[Ntxw]

Here is an example of mismatch depending on your source's algorithm.

[Ralph's Weather]

Here is an example of mismatch depending on your source's algorithm.

https://i.imgur.com/xLRGAWH.png

https://i.imgur.com/9RS84WR.png

https://i.imgur.com/XHhLqOq.png

The pretty maps are good for a quick overview. If you can read skewT charts you can much more accurately get an idea of what precip types may actually occur.
PSA to others: models do not depict precip types, that is based on the individual site's algorithm.

[cstrunk]

Here is an example of mismatch depending on your source's algorithm.

https://i.imgur.com/xLRGAWH.png

https://i.imgur.com/9RS84WR.png

https://i.imgur.com/XHhLqOq.png

The pretty maps are good for a quick overview. If you can read skewT charts you can much more accurately get an idea of what precip types may actually occur.
PSA to others: models do not depict precip types, that is based on the individual site's algorithm.

I appreciate y'all pointing this out because this is something I was unaware of until a couple of days ago when it was brought up.

[HockeyTx82]

Here is an example of mismatch depending on your source's algorithm.

https://i.imgur.com/xLRGAWH.png

https://i.imgur.com/9RS84WR.png

https://i.imgur.com/XHhLqOq.png

The pretty maps are good for a quick overview. If you can read skewT charts you can much more accurately get an idea of what precip types may actually occur.
PSA to others: models do not depict precip types, that is based on the individual site's algorithm.

I appreciate y'all pointing this out because this is something I was unaware of until a couple of days ago when it was brought up.

Oh, the absolute madness of weather models! It's like a chaotic orchestra where each instrument plays its own tune, leading to a cacophony of confusion. One model predicts a serene snowfall, the other a torrential downpour, and yet another claims it's going to be a sunny day perfect for a picnic. How are we supposed to trust any of them?

These models, each driven by their own algorithms and data feeds, might as well be reading tea leaves. A slight difference in the initial conditions or a tweak in the algorithm and voilà, the entire forecast shifts! It's like putting together a jigsaw puzzle where the pieces keep changing shape. One minute, you're sure of a snowstorm; the next, it seems you're preparing for a warm breeze.

The sheer lunacy of it all is enough to make anyone lose their cool. How can sophisticated technology, with all its computational prowess, still leave us hanging by a thread of uncertainty? It's like asking a room full of artists to paint a landscape, each coming up with a wildly different masterpiece.

What’s worse is that these models sometimes have the audacity to update multiple times a day, each new version contradicting the previous one. It's like a weather soap opera with never-ending plot twists. Just when you think you have the forecast figured out, it throws you a curveball, leaving you scrambling to adjust your plans once again.

To rely on weather models is to embrace the beautiful chaos of nature. Yet, it remains an infuriating endeavor to untangle their predictions. One thing's for sure: the lunacy of weather models keeps us perpetually on our toes, ready to adapt to whatever whim the heavens decide to throw our way next.