Texas Winter 2024-2025

[TarletonTexan]

How are we still expecting several inches of snow for the DFW area? I'm no expert, but won't we be just a bit too warm?

[Ralph's Weather]

Haha I found a SkewT chart on Pivotal with a unknown precip type haha. I see now models trending towards a mostly sleet with some snow mix around here. Low levels seem a touch drier so less QPF but that allows for wet bulbing to maybe below freezing in heavier showers.

[mmmmsnouts]

Is 10:1 even the right ratio for this kind of snow? Seems like it would be on the wetter side, meaning a lower ratio.

[orangeblood]

EPS ticked up again. It's about as good as I've seen for our region for that model set. At least since Feb 21 down south/east.

Yep, it's now clustering in the 6-10" range for DFW and continues to send a stronger signal to the FW NWS office. That office is now chasing totals and will likely continue doing so towards this ENS Mean range

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/indiv_snow/1736337600/1736337600-hZtkYu4z3dU.png

"That office is now chasing totals" No, they're not! They've mentioned in their last few forecast discussions that excessive snowfall totals are possible in isolated areas. What they're not doing is forecasting a general 6-10" snowfall just to go along with a computer model.

They're forecasting 2-4" along and north of I-20 with isolated amounts possibly higher. That seems pretty generous actually considering what the latest model blends suggest.

I'm not suggesting they forecast 6-10" but looking at the latest blends, it likely needs to be higher than 2-4".

[dhweather]

The King or the Jester ? 12Z ECMWF. It's backed down quite a bit from the 10-14" a couple of days ago.

[losf1981]

Wichita Falls is now under a winter weather advisory for up to 2 inches.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
1233 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

OKZ004>031-033>040-044-TXZ086-089-090-091200-
/O.EXB.KOUN.WW.Y.0002.250109T1200Z-250110T1400Z/
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Cotton-Wichita-Archer-Clay-
Including the cities of Alva, Buffalo, Kingfisher, Blanchard,
Prague, Enid, Arnett, Stroud, Temple, Guthrie, Medford,
Weatherford, Seiling, Oklahoma City, Scotland, Granite, Wewoka,
Frederick, Duncan, Cherokee, Gage, Okarche, Wellston, Tuttle,
Walters, Watonga, Blackwell, Stillwater, Leedey, Cheyenne,
Newcastle, Helena, Archer City, Wakita, Geary, Woodward, Norman,
Shattuck, Hammon, Hobart, Laverne, Perry, Taloga, Carmen, Hinton,
Lamont, Seminole, Wynnewood, Elk City, Lakeside City, Henrietta,
Vici, Moore, Holliday, Chickasha, Mustang, Cordell, Purcell,
Hennessey, Yukon, Clinton, Fargo, El Reno, Altus, Pauls Valley,
Fairview, Sheppard AFB, Shawnee, Hollis, Wichita Falls, Okeene,
Chandler, Burns Flat, Anadarko, Sentinel, Lawton, Meeker,
Lindsay, Concho, Davenport, Pond Creek, Snyder, Ponca City,
Sayre, and Mangum
1233 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM CST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to 2 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, northern, northwest,
southern, southwest, and western Oklahoma and northern Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Thursday to 8 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Thursday morning and evening commutes.

Feeling confident WXMan22? I was telling my wife this day, with being sunny and cold, reminds of the day before the 2010 blizzard. I had to go down to DFW to pick up a puppy I bought my wife for christmas and the friend that went with me was wearing just a tshirt and a very light jacket. I told him "you're not going to be able to wear that tomorrow with the possible snow". He laughed at me and said, "dude we might get a dusting or an inch". Long story short by the time we got back to wichita falls it had started sleeting pretty hard and it didnt stop snowing until sometime the next day or evening on christmas eve.

[Ralph's Weather]

Yep, it's now clustering in the 6-10" range for DFW and continues to send a stronger signal to the FW NWS office. That office is now chasing totals and will likely continue doing so towards this ENS Mean range

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/indiv_snow/1736337600/1736337600-hZtkYu4z3dU.png

"That office is now chasing totals" No, they're not! They've mentioned in their last few forecast discussions that excessive snowfall totals are possible in isolated areas. What they're not doing is forecasting a general 6-10" snowfall just to go along with a computer model.

They're forecasting 2-4" along and north of I-20 with isolated amounts possibly higher. That seems pretty generous actually considering what the latest model blends suggest.

I'm not suggesting they forecast 6-10" but looking at the latest blends, it likely needs to be higher than 2-4".

18Z HRRR looks really solid. 3-6" snow for DFW, 4-8" snow for I-30, 1-3" sleet/snow for I-20.

[txtwister78]

Haha I found a SkewT chart on Pivotal with a unknown precip type haha. I see now models trending towards a mostly sleet with some snow mix around here. Low levels seem a touch drier so less QPF but that allows for wet bulbing to maybe below freezing in heavier showers.

I really think most of the day tomorrow it's going to be sleet or even a cold rain mix for DFW. The time period to watch is basically (give or take depending on the model) Thursday evening into very early Friday (5-6 hour window) where if enough precip hangs around you transition over. Keep in mind 90% of the models I've seen keep most of DFW at or just above freezing so a lot of this melts because it's going to be a wet snow even if you get a few burst of moderate to heavy snow rates in that, so 2-4 inches seems on the higher end as Porta mentioned.

Your best bet is going to be watching radar obviously to see where these precip bands setup because they may be narrow at first before filling in but where all that establishes itself will be important too. This will be very similar to our event down here in Dec 2017 where that was entirely upper level driven as well. It snowed for several hours with even a few thunder claps over northern SA but in the end we accumulated just 1-3 inches across the county despite the snowfall rates at times because the surface temp never dropped below 32. Roads were just fine but it was nice to look at while it lasted. Gone by morning.

[orangeblood]

Is 10:1 even the right ratio for this kind of snow? Seems like it would be on the wetter side, meaning a lower ratio.

Probably not, 8:1 seems more reasonable better matching the Kuchera ratios forecast

[snownado]

The King or the Jester ? 12Z ECMWF. It's backed down quite a bit from the 10-14" a couple of days ago.

https://i.ibb.co/hcVStfV/sn10-acc-imp-us-sc01.png

That it did.

And even those amounts may still be sleet contaminated...

[Ralph's Weather]

Haha I found a SkewT chart on Pivotal with a unknown precip type haha. I see now models trending towards a mostly sleet with some snow mix around here. Low levels seem a touch drier so less QPF but that allows for wet bulbing to maybe below freezing in heavier showers.

I really think most of the day tomorrow it's going to be sleet or even a cold rain mix for DFW. The time period to watch is basically (give or take depending on the model) Thursday evening into very early Friday (5-6 hour window) where if enough precip hangs around you transition over. Keep in mind 90% of the models I've seen keep most of DFW at or just above freezing so a lot of this melts because it's going to be a wet snow even if you get a few burst of moderate to heavy snow rates in that, so 2-4 inches seems on the higher end as Porta mentioned.

Your best bet is going to be watching radar obviously to see where these precip bands setup because they may be narrow at first before filling in but where all that establishes itself will be important too. This will be very similar to our event down here in Dec 2017 where that was entirely upper level driven as well. It snowed for several hours with even a few thunder claps over northern SA but in the end we accumulated just 1-3 inches across the county despite the snowfall rates at times because the surface temp never dropped below 32. Roads were just fine but it was nice to look at while it lasted. Gone by morning.

For E TX I-20 corridor, I expect rates in the 4:1 range with mostly sleet. DFW more like 6-8:1. I-30 maybe 10:1. With 1" QPF those rates still give hefty amounts. And sleet accumulates better than snow at above freezing temps.

[TropicalTundra]

I will absolutely take the 18z HRRR. A little sleet throughout the day, then maybe like 2-3 hours of snow as it lifts NE. Sounds fun

[Gotwood]

I’m honestly surprised they issued a WSW considering the temps. NAM makes this thing a mostly rain event.

[HockeyTx82]

I’m honestly surprised they issued a WSW considering the temps. NAM makes this thing a mostly rain event.

And on the inverse. How many conditional hype events in the spring never played out because a thin layer of a cap kept things in check and NAM said all hell would break loose?

[orangeblood]

I’m honestly surprised they issued a WSW considering the temps. NAM makes this thing a mostly rain event.

And on the inverse. How many conditional hype events in the spring never played out because a thin layer of a cap kept things in check and NAM said all hell would break loose?

I've ruined many golf outings based on the NAM spring hype events

[Gotwood]

I’m honestly surprised they issued a WSW considering the temps. NAM makes this thing a mostly rain event.

And on the inverse. How many conditional hype events in the spring never played out because a thin layer of a cap kept things in check and NAM said all hell would break loose?

It’s more of a temp issue here. My area is at 40 now will probably make it to 42-44 before sun starts to set. Clouds will probably roll in around 8pm or so and then the south wind kicks off. I seriously doubt it gets back to freezing around my area.

[dhweather]

18Z NAM coming in hot

[Tireman4]

18Z NAM coming in hot

https://i.ibb.co/0q41g3k/namconus-asnow-scus-17.png

Interesting ( Says the folks in SE Texas..LOL)

[HockeyTx82]

18Z NAM coming in hot

https://i.ibb.co/0q41g3k/namconus-asnow-scus-17.png

Interesting ( Says the folks in SE Texas..LOL)

We'll see my oldest (he's 9) asked Alexa this morning will it snow in Ponder tomorrow.

It said yes there's a 97% chance, to which I quickly said, so that means there's a 3% chance it won't.

You have to teach them young. Otherwise, they'll go make a stupid bet somewhere.

[wxman22]

The 18z HRRR shows several hours of snow here (6+ hours) fwiw.