Texas Winter 2024-2025

[cheezyWXguy]

I think RAP overdoes snowfall

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXV21.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXV21.png

Totals like that would require the entire column and surface to be below freezing for the full duration, so I’d say you’re right. One can hope though

[WacoWx]

NTXW, when are you going to make your accumulation prediction?

I'll go bullish due to the QPF this storm is producing. Hope I am wrong and we get more !

1.25" QPF, of which .25 I think will be rain or freezing rain/sleet. 6-8" of snow for Dallas/Tarrant.

Denton County should be a little less qpf but colder profile slightly so I'll match 6-8" there.

Collin and Hunt I think will jackpot 6-10" with both higher qpf and good profile longer.

Thanks for goin out on a limb!

[snownado]

NTXW, when are you going to make your accumulation prediction?

I'll go bullish due to the QPF this storm is producing. Hope I am wrong and we get more !

1.25" QPF, of which .25 I think will be rain or freezing rain/sleet. 6-8" of snow for Dallas/Tarrant.

Denton County should be a little less qpf but colder profile slightly so I'll match 6-8" there.

Collin and Hunt I think will jackpot 6-10" with both higher qpf and good profile longer.

If you're wrong, you get 70 days of 100*F+ highs this Summer.

[Ntxw]

NTXW, when are you going to make your accumulation prediction?

I'll go bullish due to the QPF this storm is producing. Hope I am wrong and we get more !

1.25" QPF, of which .25 I think will be rain or freezing rain/sleet. 6-8" of snow for Dallas/Tarrant.

Denton County should be a little less qpf but colder profile slightly so I'll match 6-8" there.

Collin and Hunt I think will jackpot 6-10" with both higher qpf and good profile longer.

Thanks for goin out on a limb!

Tomorrow night's 700-850mb frontogenesis is gonna make or break those numbers. If timed right the front can be a focus for heavy convection and extra lift on the backside. If that can produce 3-6" alone then I'd feel better.

[gpsnowman]

NTXW, when are you going to make your accumulation prediction?

I'll go bullish due to the QPF this storm is producing. Hope I am wrong and we get more !

1.25" QPF, of which .25 I think will be rain or freezing rain/sleet. 6-8" of snow for Dallas/Tarrant.

Denton County should be a little less qpf but colder profile slightly so I'll match 6-8" there.

Collin and Hunt I think will jackpot 6-10" with both higher qpf and good profile longer.

If you're wrong, you get 70 days of 100*F+ highs this Summer.

There's a good chance of that happening anyway.

[JDawg512]

I'm still rooting for just rain, however TxDot is putting de-icing treatment on area expressways, not just overpass but I35 heading into downtown. It's better to be safe than sorry..

[wxman22]

I'm paying close attention to the HRRR, even the NWS puts a lot of weight on this model. I've seen them several times change their forecast at the last minute based on the HRRR locking in with run to run consistency of an event. It doesn't always get it right but it definitely comes close a lot of times especially when the model is within 24 hours of an event.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm paying close attention to the HRRR, even the NWS puts a lot of weight on this model. I've seen them several times change their forecast at the last minute based on the HRRR locking in with run to run consistency of an event. It doesn't always get it right but it definitely comes close a lot of times especially when the model is within 24 hours of an event.

https://i.ibb.co/bdkfNvx/ref1km-ptype-us-sc-22.png

Up through 15z, this run is actually the best one yet from the HRRR, in terms of expanse of subfreezing temps - even better than this morning's 6z. With a precip shield like that on the metroplex's doorstep and dew pts of 29-30 across the area, I would say the hope is alive (though not guaranteed obviously)

[gpsnowman]

Temp has dropped at DFW three degrees in the last hour. Drop baby drop. Let's get this down into the 20s by sunup just as precip starts. All snow please.

[snownado]

Temp has dropped at DFW three degrees in the last hour. Drop baby drop. Let's get this down into the 20s by sunup just as precip starts. All snow please.

Temps will eventually level off as the clouds move back in.

How soon that will happen? Remains to be seen...

[bubba hotep]

It may have been mentioned, but the 18z ICON bumped up totals across DFW.

[orangeblood]

I'm paying close attention to the HRRR, even the NWS puts a lot of weight on this model. I've seen them several times change their forecast at the last minute based on the HRRR locking in with run to run consistency of an event. It doesn't always get it right but it definitely comes close a lot of times especially when the model is within 24 hours of an event.

https://i.ibb.co/bdkfNvx/ref1km-ptype-us-sc-22.png

Up through 15z, this run is actually the best one yet from the HRRR, in terms of expanse of subfreezing temps - even better than this morning's 6z. With a precip shield like that on the metroplex's doorstep and dew pts of 29-30 across the area, I would say the hope is alive (though not guaranteed obviously)

It’s picking up on the DGZ zone cranking up, cooling the entire column down thru these “warm noses”. All models now seem to be seeing it. HRRR and RAP will give you clues at this range

Latest has really ramped up

[gpsnowman]

Temp has dropped at DFW three degrees in the last hour. Drop baby drop. Let's get this down into the 20s by sunup just as precip starts. All snow please.

Temps will eventually level off as the clouds move back in.

How soon that will happen? Remains to be seen...

I was wondering about that. Clear right now but when do clouds thicken?

[snownado]

Temp has dropped at DFW three degrees in the last hour. Drop baby drop. Let's get this down into the 20s by sunup just as precip starts. All snow please.

Temps will eventually level off as the clouds move back in.

How soon that will happen? Remains to be seen...

I was wondering about that. Clear right now but when do clouds thicken?

They're not far off now per the Visible Satelite (they've already reached the Big & Hill Country)

[bubba hotep]

This is from the afternoon discussion before the 18z runs showed additional cooling trends:

Significant changes:
Temperatures have continued to trend cooler for Thursday, and we
have adjusted high temperatures to reflect these trends.
Additionally, while snowfall totals have not seen a significant
change, we are becoming increasingly concerned about potential ice
accumulations. Average ice accumulations up to 1/10" are still
expected, but there is an isolated (10%) chance accumulations
could be as high as 1/4". Any areas that see these higher ice
accumulations would experience more significant impacts.

[cheezyWXguy]

Temp has dropped at DFW three degrees in the last hour. Drop baby drop. Let's get this down into the 20s by sunup just as precip starts. All snow please.

Currently sitting at 38 in Dallas. RAP seems to have done the best with temps this afternoon, HRRR has been 1-2 degrees too high, NAM a bit more. Wondering if the models are coming around as they start to correct downward on temps. Though it could also be that they are seeing a larger precip shield at onset as well. Maybe both?

[Ralph's Weather]

Temp has dropped at DFW three degrees in the last hour. Drop baby drop. Let's get this down into the 20s by sunup just as precip starts. All snow please.

Currently sitting at 38 in Dallas. RAP seems to have done the best with temps this afternoon, HRRR has been 1-2 degrees too high, NAM a bit more. Wondering if the models are coming around as they start to correct downward on temps. Though it could also be that they are seeing a larger precip shield at onset as well. Maybe both?

38 from DFW to Lindale.

[Gotwood]

37.8 IMBY clouds look a ways off from me still so I have hope

[jasons2k]

I'll go bullish due to the QPF this storm is producing. Hope I am wrong and we get more !

1.25" QPF, of which .25 I think will be rain or freezing rain/sleet. 6-8" of snow for Dallas/Tarrant.

Denton County should be a little less qpf but colder profile slightly so I'll match 6-8" there.

Collin and Hunt I think will jackpot 6-10" with both higher qpf and good profile longer.

Thanks for goin out on a limb!

Tomorrow night's 700-850mb frontogenesis is gonna make or break those numbers. If timed right the front can be a focus for heavy convection and extra lift on the backside. If that can produce 3-6" alone then I'd feel better.

I would be on the lookout for this.

[SnowintheFalls]

These model runs are looking better for us up in the Falls. Hoping we can all get in on the action!