Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Yukon Cornelius]

Clay County. Still coming down hard.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/nBSKvZt/IMG-9868.jpg [/url]

That's a beautiful picture. Longhorn looks content in his world.

Thanks! He loves this weather.

[wxman22]

I’m at 2 inches now. The HRRR shows back building snow bands moving through the area into tonight.

[GeauxTigers]

I’m at 2 inches now. The HRRR shows back building snow bands moving through the area into tonight.

So is the main event still tonight? Or has that changed?

[bubba hotep]

Oh wow

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXYl8.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXYl8.png

I don't know how accurate that is, but some portions of DFW are probably already over their forecasted totals.

[dhweather]

SPC weighs in with a MD for freezing rain




Mesoscale Discussion 0024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025

Areas affected...Central/North-Central TX

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 091730Z - 092130Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain will be possible across portions of central
and north-central Texas, with from 0.05" to 0.10" expected over the
next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows increasing precipitation
coverage across southwest TX, coincident with strengthening warm-air
advection and large scale ascent ahead of the shortwave trough
moving out of northern Mexico. The northeasterly motion of this area
of precipitation should continue, taking it into
central/north-central TX over the next few hours. Temperatures
across central/north-central TX are near freezing, but an additional
degree or two of cooling is possible as precipitation cools the
column, helping to offset some of the low-level warm-air advection.
As such, the surface wet-bulb temperature, which has been gradually
shifting northward, will likely stall along its current location,
which is roughly along a line from BBD to SLR. Freezing rain will be
possible north of this line over the next several hours, with total
precipitation from 0.05" to 0.10" expected.

..Mosier.. 01/09/2025

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON 31179947 31839918 32429838 32869728 33039617 32329621
31139873 31179947

[orangeblood]

I’m at 2 inches now. The HRRR shows back building snow bands moving through the area into tonight.

So is the main event still tonight? Or has that changed?

Yes, main show is coming this evening...change over to all snow should occur starting around 7-8 pm across the metroplex, transition line moving from northwest to southeast as the upper levels cool way down. Here is snapshot of latest HRRR at 9pm...can see the dividing line moving directly thru DFW at this time:

[snownado]

SPC weighs in with a MD for freezing rain

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0024.png


Mesoscale Discussion 0024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025

Areas affected...Central/North-Central TX

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 091730Z - 092130Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain will be possible across portions of central
and north-central Texas, with from 0.05" to 0.10" expected over the
next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows increasing precipitation
coverage across southwest TX, coincident with strengthening warm-air
advection and large scale ascent ahead of the shortwave trough
moving out of northern Mexico. The northeasterly motion of this area
of precipitation should continue, taking it into
central/north-central TX over the next few hours. Temperatures
across central/north-central TX are near freezing, but an additional
degree or two of cooling is possible as precipitation cools the
column, helping to offset some of the low-level warm-air advection.
As such, the surface wet-bulb temperature, which has been gradually
shifting northward, will likely stall along its current location,
which is roughly along a line from BBD to SLR. Freezing rain will be
possible north of this line over the next several hours, with total
precipitation from 0.05" to 0.10" expected.

..Mosier.. 01/09/2025

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON 31179947 31839918 32429838 32869728 33039617 32329621
31139873 31179947

Sigh...

[bubba hotep]

16z HRRR really bumped up QPF across DFW and, correspondingly, bumped snow totals.

[rwfromkansas]

SPC weighs in with a MD for freezing rain

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0024.png


Mesoscale Discussion 0024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025

Areas affected...Central/North-Central TX

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 091730Z - 092130Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain will be possible across portions of central
and north-central Texas, with from 0.05" to 0.10" expected over the
next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows increasing precipitation
coverage across southwest TX, coincident with strengthening warm-air
advection and large scale ascent ahead of the shortwave trough
moving out of northern Mexico. The northeasterly motion of this area
of precipitation should continue, taking it into
central/north-central TX over the next few hours. Temperatures
across central/north-central TX are near freezing, but an additional
degree or two of cooling is possible as precipitation cools the
column, helping to offset some of the low-level warm-air advection.
As such, the surface wet-bulb temperature, which has been gradually
shifting northward, will likely stall along its current location,
which is roughly along a line from BBD to SLR. Freezing rain will be
possible north of this line over the next several hours, with total
precipitation from 0.05" to 0.10" expected.

..Mosier.. 01/09/2025

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON 31179947 31839918 32429838 32869728 33039617 32329621
31139873 31179947

Sigh...

That actually sounds not bad for DFW....it says the freezing line should stay fairly stable due to wet-bulbing keeping it from moving too north.

[snownado]

SPC weighs in with a MD for freezing rain

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0024.png


Mesoscale Discussion 0024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025

Areas affected...Central/North-Central TX

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 091730Z - 092130Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain will be possible across portions of central
and north-central Texas, with from 0.05" to 0.10" expected over the
next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows increasing precipitation
coverage across southwest TX, coincident with strengthening warm-air
advection and large scale ascent ahead of the shortwave trough
moving out of northern Mexico. The northeasterly motion of this area
of precipitation should continue, taking it into
central/north-central TX over the next few hours. Temperatures
across central/north-central TX are near freezing, but an additional
degree or two of cooling is possible as precipitation cools the
column, helping to offset some of the low-level warm-air advection.
As such, the surface wet-bulb temperature, which has been gradually
shifting northward, will likely stall along its current location,
which is roughly along a line from BBD to SLR. Freezing rain will be
possible north of this line over the next several hours, with total
precipitation from 0.05" to 0.10" expected.

..Mosier.. 01/09/2025

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON 31179947 31839918 32429838 32869728 33039617 32329621
31139873 31179947

Sigh...

That actually sounds not bad for DFW....it says the freezing line should stay fairly stable due to wet-bulbing keeping it from moving too north.

It's still all sleet here under those heavy returns, and DFW is already reporting Freezing Rain....

[Ntxw]

Sigh...

That actually sounds not bad for DFW....it says the freezing line should stay fairly stable due to wet-bulbing keeping it from moving too north.

It's still all sleet here under those heavy returns, and DFW is already reporting Freezing Rain....

I'm about 1 mile from the airport. It's a rain/sleet mixture that's just recently started to become a sleet/snow mix now.

[GeauxTigers]

I’m at 2 inches now. The HRRR shows back building snow bands moving through the area into tonight.

So is the main event still tonight? Or has that changed?

Yes, main show is coming this evening...change over to all snow should occur starting around 7-8 pm across the metroplex, transition line moving from northwest to southeast as the upper levels cool way down. Here is snapshot of latest HRRR at 9pm...can see the dividing line moving directly thru DFW at this time:

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/dallas/refc_ptype/1736438400/1736478000-wS3oJdXoStg.png

Thanks so much! I’m far N TX so should be fun.

[orangeblood]

There is a small warm nose at the 800-925mb level moving from southwest to northeast with this next line of precip, turning over to mostly Frz Rain with some sleet. Should last until 5-6pm tonight until transitioning back over to sleet then all snow, heavy at times

Here's a snap shot of that 850mb warm layer later this afternoon :

(note: the HRRR continue to cool this layer down it gets closer into range so take it for what it's worth, maybe not much)



925mb warming for the southeast half of metroplex as well:

[Wthrfan]

It is snowing like crazy outside

29°F

I was in downtown OKC and just drove back up to Edmond. Much heavier accumulations, probably twice as much downtown as in Edmond. NWS showing 4-6 in for OKC I-44 and points south and east, about 2-3 in for me. You should get some really good totals!

[WantSnow]

I just figured out how to log in again after years of lurking.
Here in Uptown Dallas. Looks like mostly rain at the moment. Ready for everything to turn white!

[txtwister78]

Won't be long before we're tracking more cold and perhaps more winter weather events?

[Cpv17]

Won't be long before we're tracking more cold and perhaps more winter weather events?

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_c_anom/1736424000/1737309600-DEJME8wlStE.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_c_anom/1736424000/1737331200-HhErpfBnTXg.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t2m_c_anom/1736380800/1737396000-nsJ03nxDYSc.png

That’s a pretty strong signal for an ensemble at that range.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 nope, and the time frame is starting to move up on the models, could be a very interesting stretch ahead, im especially intrigued by the EPS because it usually is pretty conservative when it comes to showing potentially big cold

[Iceresistance]

The snow has really lightened up outside, but I still think that a 2nd wave is coming to give me more snow

30°F

[Quixotic]

Oh wow

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXYl8.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXYl8.png

I don't know how accurate that is, but some portions of DFW are probably already over their forecasted totals.

I am. And I threw the towel in way early. I’m at 4-5”. I haven’t measured but just eyeballing flat surfaces. No drifting so this is an easy one to gauge. Big flakes.