Texas Winter 2024-2025

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS has a 5-day below freezing cluster for DFW.

[Gotwood]

12z Euro EPS has a 5-day below freezing cluster for DFW.

The bad news is this will be the end of winter so we have one more week worth of cold to cash in it looks like.

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro EPS has a 5-day below freezing cluster for DFW.

The bad news is this will be the end of winter so we have one more week worth of cold to cash in it looks like.

I mean, February can go insane too, we saw that from multiple winters, and snow can go as late as March or April.

[869MB]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1877702180435874053

[Ntxw]

12z Euro EPS has a 5-day below freezing cluster for DFW.

The bad news is this will be the end of winter so we have one more week worth of cold to cash in it looks like.

I mean, February can go insane too, we saw that from multiple winters, and snow can go as late as March or April.

February with the global circulations and progressions will be in a less favorable MJO positioning. Early signs it will be more Nina like than we have been which means cold will load up and sit in W-Can but the lower latitude pattern will tend to block it. But cold can still spill with an opening, that's very far out though. Changes in the Atlantic (AO/NAO) are less predictable.

The one caveat if La Nina atmospheric resembles more of the moderate to stronger Ninas then we can see the cold spill into the west and bleed west of the Mississippi but that requires some -EPO/AO like Feb 21, or Feb 11.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1877702180435874053

Bring it and bring it hard!

I want below freezing for a solid week, and a storm wouldn’t hurt.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS has a 5-day below freezing cluster for DFW.

The bad news is this will be the end of winter so we have one more week worth of cold to cash in it looks like.

I don't know. The Euro Weeklies keep WCAN below normal well into February. It's hard for WCAN to stay below normal and chunks of cold not to get forced south into Texas.

[cajungal]

It’s south Louisiana’s turn, along with SE Texas!!!

Don’t leave me out of that lol 1/2 an inch of snow just isn’t enough lol

I would have even took a dusting. Nothing since Dec 8,2017. And before that it was 2004 for me and 1989 before that

[txtwister78]

That's pretty far south at this range for CPC to be highlighting already.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

The bad news is this will be the end of winter so we have one more week worth of cold to cash in it looks like.

I mean, February can go insane too, we saw that from multiple winters, and snow can go as late as March or April.

February with the global circulations and progressions will be in a less favorable MJO positioning. Early signs it will be more Nina like than we have been which means cold will load up and sit in W-Can but the lower latitude pattern will tend to block it. But cold can still spill with an opening, that's very far out though. Changes in the Atlantic (AO/NAO) are less predictable.

The one caveat if La Nina atmospheric resembles more of the moderate to stronger Ninas then we can see the cold spill into the west and bleed west of the Mississippi but that requires some -EPO/AO like Feb 21, or Feb 11.

I'm probably wrong with this, but we can't discount the pdo being less negative to allow it to be colder later in February, regardless of mjo.

[Gotwood]

12z Euro EPS has a 5-day below freezing cluster for DFW.

The bad news is this will be the end of winter so we have one more week worth of cold to cash in it looks like.

I don't know. The Euro Weeklies keep WCAN below normal well into February. It's hard for WCAN to stay below normal and chunks of cold not to get forced south into Texas.

Don’t get your hopes up we live in Texas we only have a couple weeks of real cold a year these years so I wouldn’t expect different

[Cpv17]

That's pretty far south at this range for CPC to be highlighting already.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

A snowpack over that area can do crazy things to temperatures as well!

[bubba hotep]

12z euro is cold for the mentioned period. Snow along the frontal boundary and then .

Pushing single digits for DFW

Let’s get that LES going on area lakes. AO and NAO for now look to go positive so my guess is the next big shot will have SE ridge at play.

Yap, Pacific Jet shifting equatorward, -EPO, -PNA, -WPO all point to cold centered down the spin of the Rockies.

[Ntxw]

Pushing single digits for DFW

Let’s get that LES going on area lakes. AO and NAO for now look to go positive so my guess is the next big shot will have SE ridge at play.

Yap, Pacific Jet shifting equatorward, -EPO, -PNA, -WPO all point to cold centered down the spin of the Rockies.

When you see those deeper -anoms hugging those mountains you know it's blue norther.

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm optimistic for a cold first half of February, but looking to my bday on the 26th, probably going to be shorts and a T-shirt

[Brent]

Man this snow is melting quickly... Already bare spots after 6 inches allegedly

So when's the next one

[Golfisnteasy7575]

I'm optimistic for a cold first half of February, but looking to my bday on the 26th, probably going to be shorts and a T-shirt

OK. Have fun in Orlando

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Man this snow is melting quickly... Already bare spots after 6 inches allegedly

So when's the next one

Maybe in 9-10 day range. If it pans out, I'm thinking more sleet and fzr. Just imo. Some will see snow

[Throckmorton]

In keeping with many forecasts of cold weather for the western half United States during the second half of January, Judah Cohen said the equivalent of "not so fast" in his January 6th blog:

The theme of this winter seems to be the stretched polar vortex (PV) and how the PV got on this ridiculous infinite loop of “lather, rinse repeat.” ... [T]he ride continues with the PV alternating between a stretched PV and a relaxation to a more circular shape. And just maybe the PV throws in a quick Canadian warming to show it isn’t just a one trick pony. Regardless the transition to different PV phases or modes at breakneck speed continues for the foreseeable future. ... The current stretched PV (fifth of the season) has been by far the most impressive of the season. In last week’s blog, I tried to show this with the wave reflection diagnostics and show it again in today’s blog. During wave reflection, wave energy goes up over Asia, bouncing off the stratospheric PV and then downward over North America. The downward wave energy amplifies the ridge–trough wave over North America and determines the strength or amplitude of the North American wave and the axis or position. This wave reflection event is quite robust, and I do think that is contributing to the severity of the cold air outbreak predicted for the Eastern US this week. This is also likely helping to overcome some shortcomings with this stretched PV (as in producing extreme winter weather) including a lack of antecedent cold air in both Siberia and the North American Arctic, well below normal North American snow cover extent, and a PV that is normal to strong. Also, remarkably the wave reflection is predicted to continue for two weeks! I really don’t recall such a long duration wave reflection event. I think this is why the PV stretch merry go round isn’t over just yet.

The resultant ridging with the wave reflection ... is around 120º W and the resultant trough starting to take shape ... is around 60º W. Interestingly, the GFS is predicting that the wave reflection will shift westwards with time so that during the third week of January, the ridging shown in orange shading is now around 150º W and the more mature trough is around 80º W. I think that this westward shift in the wave reflection explains why the GFS is predicting the cold air to become increasingly focused further to the west as January progresses.

The energy diagnostics ... are very volatile and can change from day to day so caution is needed when using them to forecast, but this upcoming forecast of wave reflection has been unusually consistent. Stretched PVs are not only associated with extreme cold but also snowstorms and one snowstorm is ongoing today in the Eastern US and another is possible over the weekend....

Stretched PVs deliver severe winter weather not only to North America but also East Asia. This event is clearly more impressive in North America than East Asia but seems no one told Japan as the record snowfall keeps going.

The Canadian warming from the end of December did spawn blocking high pressure over Northeastern Canada and Greenland. The resultant Greenland high pressure has resulted in colder weather across Northern Europe and even snowfall. ... But the high pressure is predicted to expand towards Europe. This will likely result in the cold weather for Europe to be short lived. Interestingly the models do predict the Greenland blocking to return at the end of the forecasts. So colder weather could return to Europe in the second half of January as it is predicted for the US.

All the models are predicting another stretched PV starting in the second half of January (sixth of the winter). This should help to build cold air in Alaska and Western Canada, and this is showing up in all the weather models. One thing that is very curious to me is that the models are predicting the next stretched PV to be in two parts with one on January 15th and 16th and another at the end of the run on January 20th and 21st with a quasi-Canadian warming in between the two PV stretches. The models look less impressive with the Canadian warming in their latest runs, and I am not really sure what to make of it. I think this might be best considered as one PV stretched event, but it might come in two separate pieces. Maybe its impact on the weather is that the cold entering the US comes in pieces rather in just one fell swoop.

The other curiosity is where the cold is focused in the US, the Western US or the Eastern US. The GFS has been consistently the furthest west with the cold. You can see that the stretched PV is directed at the Western US and based on the wave reflection we can understand why the GFS is becoming more westward shifted in its cold forecast. The Canadian and European models have been more skittish but overall have been focused more in the Eastern US. In the latest European operational forecast of the polar vortex, the stretched PV is directed at the Eastern US and not the Western US in contrast to the GFS. Based on the orientation of the ensemble PV forecasts,I am inclined to side with the model forecasts that are more eastward shifted and not with the more westward shifted GFS forecasts.

So far, no signs of a weakening PV so the stretched PV for week three and possibly four of January should quickly wind down allowing for a relaxation of the cold pattern or even allowing for a mild pattern. But the stretched PVs have been happening in such short frequency there is hardly time to notice the warm-up. Will that continue hard to know but I see no convincing signs we are getting off this merry go-round just yet.

I think the best way to break this cycle is to either have a strong and durable Ural–Scandinavian block coupled with deep downstream troughing across Northeast Asia and out into the North Pacific that would lead to a larger disruption of the PV. But so far, no model is predicting this. Instead, the models are predicting Ural troughing and Siberian ridging, and this should help to strengthen the PV even further and potentially reduce the possibility of further PV stretches. Something definitely to watch but the models have been pretty awful with their forecasts beyond a week of high latitude blocking this winter, so for now I am skeptical.

Wednesday Update

Not much changed since Monday other than I get to pat myself on the back. The next stretched PV event is really looking like two distinct events with one like I wrote around the 15th and a second beginning on the 20th. They seem to be separated by some quasi-Canadian warming or muted Canadian warming.

And we can see in the models, two separate Arctic outbreaks one more modest one on January 15th and 16th and a more significant one beginning on January 20th. In fact, the second Arctic outbreak on the most European ensemble forecast looks to be fairly significant.

Also, pretty much all the models are in agreement now bringing the cold air further to the East. In fact, there are some signs in the model the cold can get even deeper and if the forecasts stay fairly consistent will be a focus of next week’s blog. My one reason for skepticism at the moment is that the stretched PV event in all the model forecasts is underwhelming. I interpret that as the models have a large spread in their PV forecasts and other outcomes are also likely. So I feel good putting the tally of stretched PVs at six so far this winter and maybe up to seven before the end of January.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

[Stratton23]

therockmorton its going to get really cold regardless of what judah said, I wouldn’t think too much of it