Texas Winter 2024-2025

Winter Weather Discussion

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Gotwood
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4941 Postby Gotwood » Sat Jan 11, 2025 9:56 am

I’m not seeing any super cold temps showing on the models this morning. Looks to be a period of below normal temperatures with a few cold shots. Hopefully Winter weather will accompany.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4942 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Jan 11, 2025 9:58 am

Gotwood wrote:I’m not seeing any super cold temps showing on the models this morning. Looks to be a period of below normal temperatures with a few cold shots. Hopefully Winter weather will accompany.


My MSN weather app has next Sunday and Monday not getting above 32 with precip?

I known it's an app but I wonder what it's seeing?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4943 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 11, 2025 10:14 am

This is an absolute classic North Pacific setup for extreme cold.

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4944 Postby iorange55 » Sat Jan 11, 2025 10:24 am

Gotwood wrote:I’m not seeing any super cold temps showing on the models this morning. Looks to be a period of below normal temperatures with a few cold shots. Hopefully Winter weather will accompany.


Looks pretty darn cold to me. I guess we all have different definitions of “super cold” though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4945 Postby Gotwood » Sat Jan 11, 2025 10:28 am

iorange55 wrote:
Gotwood wrote:I’m not seeing any super cold temps showing on the models this morning. Looks to be a period of below normal temperatures with a few cold shots. Hopefully Winter weather will accompany.


Looks pretty darn cold to me. I guess we all have different definitions of “super cold” though.

Some posters were talking about single digits.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4946 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 11, 2025 10:41 am

Gotwood wrote:
iorange55 wrote:
Gotwood wrote:I’m not seeing any super cold temps showing on the models this morning. Looks to be a period of below normal temperatures with a few cold shots. Hopefully Winter weather will accompany.


Looks pretty darn cold to me. I guess we all have different definitions of “super cold” though.

Some posters were talking about single digits.


Single digits are always hard to come by in Dallas.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4947 Postby snownado » Sat Jan 11, 2025 11:04 am

Gotwood wrote:I’m not seeing any super cold temps showing on the models this morning. Looks to be a period of below normal temperatures with a few cold shots. Hopefully Winter weather will accompany.


And, god willing, we won't see any "super cold" weather with a power grid held up by glue & popsicle sticks....
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4948 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Jan 11, 2025 11:05 am

snownado wrote:
Gotwood wrote:I’m not seeing any super cold temps showing on the models this morning. Looks to be a period of below normal temperatures with a few cold shots. Hopefully Winter weather will accompany.


And, god willing, we won't see any "super cold" weather with a power grid held up by glue & popsicle sticks....


Wrong, it's Cow Manure and Wooden Fence Posts!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4949 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 11, 2025 11:09 am

TWC has the coldest air of the season here already which for beyond a week is something. It's never shown really cold air that far out all winter
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4950 Postby wxman22 » Sat Jan 11, 2025 11:14 am

There's an overrunning event setting up at the end of the 12z ICON run.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4951 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Jan 11, 2025 11:26 am

Gotwood wrote:
iorange55 wrote:
Gotwood wrote:I’m not seeing any super cold temps showing on the models this morning. Looks to be a period of below normal temperatures with a few cold shots. Hopefully Winter weather will accompany.


Looks pretty darn cold to me. I guess we all have different definitions of “super cold” though.

Some posters were talking about single digits.


No one knows how cold it’ll be yet. That’s still pretty far out there. Stick with the ensembles, not the operationals. Haven’t checked ensembles today yet, but last night they looked very cold for Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4952 Postby wxman22 » Sat Jan 11, 2025 11:38 am

The Canadian shows it also.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4953 Postby mcheer23 » Sat Jan 11, 2025 11:44 am

wxman22 wrote:The Canadian shows it also.

https://i.ibb.co/HYsSP12/gem-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-36-1.png


So does EURO AI
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4954 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Jan 11, 2025 11:48 am

wxman22 wrote:There's an overrunning event setting up at the end of the 12z ICON run.

https://i.ibb.co/rysHNSP/500h-anom-conus-4.png


That looks too far west.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4955 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 11, 2025 11:52 am

It's not just the storm, it's that cold air is coming in with it. Teens and 20s.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4956 Postby Texas Snow » Sat Jan 11, 2025 11:55 am

Caught this in the FWD AFS this morning

A slight warming trend and increasing moisture will follow
towards the end of the week with the return of the south flow.
Uncertainty increases during this period with the placement and
progression of the next upper level trough. For now, we will
continue to message a low chance for rain Friday into Saturday
across the eastern half of the region given the sufficient low-
level warm advection in place. Beyond this, some extended guidance
suggests that an active weather pattern may persist into the
following week. This could bring another surge of cold air along
with precipitation chances for portions of our area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4957 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Jan 11, 2025 11:59 am

rwfromkansas wrote:
wxman22 wrote:There's an overrunning event setting up at the end of the 12z ICON run.

https://i.ibb.co/rysHNSP/500h-anom-conus-4.png


That looks too far west.

Just hasn’t finished digging as of the end of that run. I agree with 22 that if that plays out further it would allow for a favorable streaming of moisture out of the pacific. Makes me a little concerned it would set up an ice or mixed precip event, which isn’t great if longer duration significant cold is really to follow. Too far out to do anything but speculate, hopefully if there is a storm it manages to pass through after the cold air establishes itself without too much suppression so that the full column is below freezing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4958 Postby Gotwood » Sat Jan 11, 2025 12:08 pm

wxman22 wrote:The Canadian shows it also.

https://i.ibb.co/HYsSP12/gem-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-36-1.png

Not falling for this again move that precipitation north 100 miles.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4959 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Jan 11, 2025 12:35 pm

Gotwood wrote:
wxman22 wrote:The Canadian shows it also.

https://i.ibb.co/HYsSP12/gem-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-36-1.png

Not falling for this again move that precipitation north 100 miles.


Maybe with Trudeau stepping down it'll be better
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4960 Postby wxman22 » Sat Jan 11, 2025 12:39 pm

:froze: il
rwfromkansas wrote:
wxman22 wrote:There's an overrunning event setting up at the end of the 12z ICON run.

https://i.ibb.co/rysHNSP/500h-anom-conus-4.png


That looks too far west.


It’s not too far west it’s just that the ICON run stops before the trough moves further east.
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