Texas Winter 2024-2025

[TropicalTundra]

Barely been a few days …

[Golfisnteasy7575]

This cold outbreak could be a big doozy! Ensembles are indicating a few days after the first initial shot of brutally cold arctic air, their will be another surge of arctic air with another trough diving down into the central us, this doesnt look to be a short lived event

Ridging in Alaska remains, and cold doesn't really deviate from the US-Canadian border and it likely won't through February. So I think you're on to something with that. Over time though the SE ridge will gradually get stronger as the trough retreats westward.

-21 daily SOI FWIW, not your typical La Nina SOI.

It's acting like a El nino then?

[Ntxw]

Sweating over here 51F feels like a heatwave.

[Ntxw]

This cold outbreak could be a big doozy! Ensembles are indicating a few days after the first initial shot of brutally cold arctic air, their will be another surge of arctic air with another trough diving down into the central us, this doesnt look to be a short lived event

Ridging in Alaska remains, and cold doesn't really deviate from the US-Canadian border and it likely won't through February. So I think you're on to something with that. Over time though the SE ridge will gradually get stronger as the trough retreats westward.

-21 daily SOI FWIW, not your typical La Nina SOI.

It's acting like a El nino then?

Somewhat, definitely neutral mix match. It has stunted Nina growth.

[Iceresistance]

Sweating over here 51F feels like a heatwave.

Yep, we are getting into the reloading phase, before it fires again.

Also, that Euro run, holy moly


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SX1J2.png

[Iceresistance]

GEFS wants a consistent -EPO pattern, I am not sure the last time the Ensembles wanted such an extended -EPO pattern


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SX1Jv.gif

[Gotwood]

Sweating over here 51F feels like a heatwave.

Yep, we are getting into the reloading phase, before it fires again.

Also, that Euro run, holy moly

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SX1J2.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SX1J2.png

I see the brunt of the cold going east again?

[Iceresistance]

Sweating over here 51F feels like a heatwave.

Yep, we are getting into the reloading phase, before it fires again.

Also, that Euro run, holy moly

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SX1J2.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SX1J2.png

I see the brunt of the cold going east again?

It's in the long range tho, so keep that in mind

Otherwise, the PNA is more neutral to negative

[Brent]

Yeah this has got to be one of the warmest after snows I can remember here. So much melting and not even remotely cold

Then again even during the storm it wasn't cold or windy like I mentioned yesterday

We are so gonna pay for this aren't we

EPS has 3 days in the 20s already starting on the 19th. That may not seem that crazy but generally in the past the ensembles have been too warm at this range

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Yeah this has got to be one of the warmest after snows I can remember here. So much melting and not even remotely cold

Then again even during the storm it wasn't cold or windy like I mentioned yesterday

We are so gonna pay for this aren't we

EPS has 3 days in the 20s already starting on the 19th. That may not seem that crazy but generally in the past the ensembles have been too warm at this range

I know it's early, but the cpc map for heavy snow is further nw of what most models have the wintry weather in that timeframe. If we have a -pna, it would seem like that system would be further nw but just imo.

[Iceresistance]

Oh good lord 12z Euro-Ensembles (I got this from a friend)


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SXAbb.gif

[Brent]

[Stratton23]

Choo Choo! All aboard the siberian air express train folks! Its coming

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Choo Choo! All aboard the siberian air express train folks! Its coming

We want some precipitation in the cold air

[Stratton23]

I wouldnt be surprised to have precipitation around, one thing ive noticed with these big arctic outbreaks, as when the trough digs into the west before moving east, it usually causes some sort of coastal low to develop in response to the cold air coming south, thats what Euro shows, CMC as well

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS has a cluster that keeps DFW below freezing for 7 days.

[Iceresistance]

I wouldnt be surprised to have precipitation around, one thing ive noticed with these big arctic outbreaks, as when the trough digs into the west before moving east, it usually causes some sort of coastal low to develop in response to the cold air coming south, thats what Euro shows, CMC as well

Right now, I am not looking for any snow chances, I am looking for the upper-level patterns, especially on the ensembles.

I only start to look at snow chances when it's within 5-6 days, unless there is an extremely consistent signal for a major event further out

[gpsnowman]

12z Euro EPS has a cluster that keeps DFW below freezing for 7 days.

The models continue to bring the goods. This is shaping up to be an all timer. Still a ways to go but the consistency is hard to ignore.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS has a cluster that keeps DFW below freezing for 7 days.

The models continue to bring the goods. This is shaping up to be an all timer. Still a ways to go but the consistency is hard to ignore.

It's not a huge cluster, but has grown a bit over the last few runs.

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro EPS has a cluster that keeps DFW below freezing for 7 days.

The models continue to bring the goods. This is shaping up to be an all timer. Still a ways to go but the consistency is hard to ignore.

It's not a huge cluster, but has grown a bit over the last few runs.

You able to check the EPO on the Euro-EPS? I am wondering if it has trended more negative