SIO: DIKELEDI - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

STRONG TROPICAL STORM number 5

(DIKELEDI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 130 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 990 hPa.

Position on January 10 at 10 a.m. local time: 14.2 South / 56.7 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 750 km to the sector: NORTH

Distance from Mayotte: 1260 km to sector: EAST

Movement: WEST, at 30 km/h.


System Information:

- During the morning, the structure of DIKELEDI improved and it reached the stage of Severe Tropical Storm at 10:00 local time. The system is expected to continue to intensify in the coming hours to reach the stage of tropical cyclone probably during the next night.

- DIKELEDI is currently located a little over 700km east of the Malagasy coast and is continuing its movement towards the West.

- The system is currently generating dangerous sea conditions over Tromelin today and tonight.

- Then it should land in northern Madagascar, in the province of Antsiranana late Saturday or in the evening, probably between Sambava and Antsiranana. Strong winds are expected from early Saturday afternoon, with possible damaging winds Saturday evening near the impact zone. Heavy rain is also expected in the province of Antsiranana and the north of the province of Toamasina. A dangerous sea state is also expected near the impact zone. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecast through their national meteorological service.

- After passing over the lands of northern Madagascar, the system should re-emerge on the western side in the Mozambique Channel, having lost some of its intensity. The trajectory forecast from Sunday is more uncertain and will be refined as time goes on. Indeed, we are seeing a tendency for the trajectory to shift a little further north and towards the centre of the channel.

- Concerning Mayotte, a rainy and windy deterioration is expected on Sunday, but its extent remains to be quantified and will depend directly on the distance of the meteor's passage. The uncertainty on the trajectory at 2 days' notice is of the order of a hundred kilometers.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE number 5

(DIKELEDI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 165 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 983 hPa.

Position on January 10 at 10 p.m. local time: 13.4 South / 54.1 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 845 km to the sector: NORTH

Distance from Mayotte: 970 km to sector: EAST

Movement: WEST, at 28 km/h.


System Information:

- DIKELEDI continues to intensify and reached the tropical cyclone stage this Friday evening. It is located a little over 400 km from the coast of Madagascar and is moving towards the west to west-northwest between 25 and 30 km/h.

- DIKELEDI is expected to continue to intensify, reaching a peak intensity during the day on Saturday off the northeastern coast of Madagascar, probably in the upper tropical cyclone stage. It is expected to land in Antsirana province between late afternoon and evening on Saturday between Vohemar and Antsiranana. Damaging winds are expected from early Saturday afternoon, with possible damaging winds in the evening near the impact area. Heavy rains are also expected in Antsiranana province and northern Toamasina province. Dangerous sea conditions are also expected near the impact area. Residents are advised to monitor the evolution of the forecast through their national weather service.

- After a brief passage over the lands of the northern tip of Madagascar, the system should re-emerge in the Mozambique Channel, probably at the stage of a strong tropical storm, before circulating off the south of Mayotte during the day on Sunday. From Monday, the trajectory becomes very uncertain, being able to approach more or less the coast of Mozambique. The forecasts will be refined as we go along.

- Concerning Mayotte, significant rain and wind deterioration is expected on Sunday. Very heavy rains that could cause flooding are likely. The extent of the wind deterioration is more uncertain and will depend on the distance of the meteor's passage. A dangerous sea state could also accompany this deterioration. The uncertainty on the trajectory at 1 or 2 days' notice is of the order of 80 to 100 km.

- Disturbed weather is likely between Monday and Tuesday on the coast of Mozambique's Nampula province, but given the high uncertainty over the track, it is too early to quantify the extent of the impacts.

Here are the expected intensities and positions of this low pressure system over the next few days.

[cycloneye]

Getting better as it approaches Madagascar.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE number 5

(DIKELEDI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 165 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 984 hPa.

Position on January 11 at 10 a.m. local time: 12.7 South / 51.5 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1005 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 690 km to sector: EAST

Movement: WEST, at 22 km/h.


System Information:

- DIKELEDI remains at the lower end of the tropical cyclone stage, its intensification being a little slower than initially expected. It is located less than 200 km off the coast of Madagascar's Antsiranana province and is moving towards the west-northwest at about 30 km/h.

- DIKELEDI could still intensify slightly this Saturday, remaining at the tropical cyclone stage, before making landfall in the province of Antsiranana, between Vohemar and Antsiranana, during the afternoon or early evening (chronology slightly accelerated compared to previous forecasts). Destructive winds are expected from late Saturday morning or midday, with possible damaging winds during the afternoon and evening near the landing zone. Heavy rains are also expected in the province of Antsiranana and the north of the province of Toamasina. A dangerous sea state is expected near the impact zone. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service.

- After a brief passage over the lands of the northern tip of Madagascar, the system should re-emerge into the Mozambique Channel during the night from Saturday to Sunday, probably weakening to the stage of a strong tropical storm, before circulating off the south of Mayotte during the day on Sunday. From Monday, the trajectory becomes more uncertain, being able to approach more or less the coast of Mozambique while making a turn towards the southwest then south. The forecasts will be refined as we go along.

- Concerning Mayotte, significant rain and wind deterioration is expected tomorrow Sunday. Very heavy rains that could generate flash floods, floods and landslides are likely. The extent of the wind deterioration is more uncertain and will depend on the distance of the meteor's passage. A dangerous sea state could also accompany this deterioration. The uncertainty on the trajectory at 24-36 hours is of the order of 80 km.

- In the Comoros, cumulative rainfall of more than 100mm in 24 hours is expected across the entire archipelago.

- Over Mozambique, current forecasts indicate that this is a mature system that could approach quite close to the coast of Nampula province between Monday and Tuesday, likely bringing unsettled weather. Given the uncertainty over the track, it is too early to quantify the extent of these impacts. Residents are encouraged to follow the evolution of the forecast through their national weather service.

- DIKELEDI is likely to move south of the Mozambique Channel mid-next week while maintaining significant intensity.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE number 5

(DIKELEDI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 130 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 185 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 984 hPa.

Position on January 11 at 4 p.m. local time: 12.6 South / 50.5 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1060 km to the sector: NORTH-NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 580 km to sector: EAST

Movement: WEST, at 19 km/h.


System Information:

- DIKELEDI remains at the lower end of the tropical cyclone stage, its intensification being a little slower than initially expected. It is located less than 100 km off the coast of Madagascar's Antsiranana province and is moving westward at about 15 km/h.

- Tropical Cyclone DIKELEDI will make landfall in Antsiranana Province, between Vohemar and Antsiranana, in the early evening. Damaging winds are expected from late Saturday morning or midday, with very damaging winds possible in the evening near the landfall area. Heavy rains are also expected in Antsiranana Province and northern Toamasina Province. Dangerous sea conditions are expected near the impact area. Residents are encouraged to monitor the forecast through their national weather service.

- After a brief passage over the lands of the northern tip of Madagascar, the system should re-emerge into the Mozambique Channel and circulate with a west-southwest trajectory, passing 100km south of Mayotte on Sunday. From Monday, the trajectory should approach more or less the coast of Mozambique while making a turn towards the southwest, then towards the south on Tuesday and finally towards the south-southeast on Wednesday.

- During its journey over land during the night from Saturday to Sunday, the system should probably weaken to the stage of a moderate tropical storm, before moving off the coast south of Mayotte during the day on Sunday. The system should then gradually re-intensify to reach the stage of a strong tropical storm on Sunday evening. Then on Monday, the intensification would be faster and it could return to the stage of a tropical cyclone, or even an intense tropical cyclone. The forecasts will be refined as we go along.

- Concerning Mayotte, significant rain and wind deterioration is expected tomorrow, Sunday. Very heavy rains that could generate flash floods, floods and landslides are expected from the end of tomorrow night and for a good part of tomorrow. Gusts of up to 80 to 90 km/h or even locally 100-110 km/h are likely, particularly in the southern part of the island. A dangerous sea state, particularly in the western lagoon, could also accompany this deterioration with a risk of marine submersion. The uncertainty on the trajectory at 24 hours' notice is of the order of 80 km.

- Heavy rains are expected in the Comoros, particularly in the highlands.

- Over Mozambique, current forecasts indicate that this is a mature system that could approach quite close to the coast of Nampula province between Monday and Tuesday, likely bringing unsettled weather. Heavy rain, strong winds and dangerous sea conditions with marine flooding are likely. Residents are advised to monitor the evolution of the forecast through their national weather service.

- DIKELEDI is likely to move south of the Mozambique Channel mid-next week while maintaining significant intensity.

[Hurricane2022]

Omg he's so crazzzzzzyyyy!!! Love him!!!

[Hurricane2022]

https://imageshack.com/i/pnokiMY2p https://imageshack.com/i/poszvZVAp https://imageshack.com/i/pmNzWVJmp https://imageshack.com/i/poV0A94Rp
Omg he's so crazzzzzzyyyy!!! Love him!!!

 https://x.com/Sausius_wx/status/1878200284691792178

[cycloneye]

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE PERIPHERAL
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT,
GRADUALLY ERODE THE STEERING RIDGE, AND INDUCE A BREAK OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. TC 07S WILL TURN POLEWARD TOWARD THE BREAK IN
THE RIDGE BY TAU 36 AND CONTINUE TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
THEREAFTER. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE AND BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST, INDUCING THE
FIRST STAGE OF A LIKELY PROLONGED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS PROBABLE IN THE NEAR TERM DESPITE HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT AS THE SYSTEM IS
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
PERSISTENT, MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 24,
STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
UNDER THE UPPER-RIDGE AXIS AND BENEFITS FROM LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER.
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL INDUCE WEAKENING IN
THE LATER TAUS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, INCLUDING A
POLEWARD TURN AROUND THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS AND PASSAGE OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE IS BRACKETED ON THE WEST
BY THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND ON THE
RIGHT BY THE GALWEM SOLUTION. THE DISTRIBUTION OF CONSENSUS MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER TRACKS IS FAIRLY EVEN, REFLECTING SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED AND ORIENTATION OF THE EXPECTED POLEWARD
TURN BUT A CONSISTENT OVERALL PICTURE. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING AND LIES
JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE SPREAD IS
EVIDENT IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WITH A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FROM
SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE GFS AND SHIPS FORECASTS TO STEADY TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE LATEST HAFS AND HWRF RUNS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST ALIGNS ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS GIVEN ANTICIPATED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND SUPPORT FROM THE AVAILABLE
MESOSCALE MODELS. THE SYSTEM COULD EASILY PEAK ABOVE 105 KNOTS IN
THE CENTRAL MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IF CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE,
WARRANTING FURTHER UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INTENSITY IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

[cycloneye]

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE APPROACHING THE STR AXIS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ALTER
COURSE SOUTHEASTWARD, CONTINUING TO ROUND THE RIDGE. THE INTENSITY
OF TC 07S WILL STAGNATE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH MOVES OUTBOUND EASTWARD. AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE IN, ALLOWING FOR A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
TO FORM BETWEEN TAU 24-72, IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WILL REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE UNTIL TAU 72.
THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS WILL
LEAD TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100KTS BY TAU 72. BY TAU 96, AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM WILL BEGIN TO INDUCE HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND BAROCLINIC FORCING, INITIATING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST AND
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL COMPLETE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK CLOSELY TO THE COAST OF
MOZAMBIQUE WITHIN THE FIRST 48 HOURS, BUT GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER AS
TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER LAND OR NOT. GFS DEPICTS THE
SYSTEM SKIRTING THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, BUT ECMWF KEEPS TC 07S
OVER WATER. HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR BOTH GEFS AND EC-EPS
DEPICT MOST MEMBERS KEEPING THE SYSTEM OVER WATER. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT THE TRACK MOVES OVER
LAND OR NOT, THUS GFS AND HWRF GUIDANCE DEPICT A SLOWER RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION WHILE COAMPS-TC AND HAFS-A INDICATE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE FIRST 72 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

STRONG TROPICAL STORM number 5

(DIKELEDI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 996 hPa.

Position on January 12 at 1 p.m. local time: 13.9 South / 45.2 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1325 km to the sector: NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 120 km to sector: SOUTH

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 30 km/h.


System Information:

- DIKELEDI landed on the northern tip of Madagascar in the province of Antsiranana between the towns of Antsiranana and Vohemar yesterday evening around 16:30 UTC and then emerged on the Mozambique Channel side a few hours later in a weakened form. At 10:00 local time, it is located approximately 140 km southeast of Mayotte at the stage of a strong tropical storm and is continuing its movement towards the West-Southwest.

- Over the next few hours, DIKELEDI will move towards the West-Southwest, gradually intensifying at first. It should then pass a little over 110km south of Mayotte at the stage of a strong tropical storm before being classified again as a tropical cyclone on Monday during the day. Subsequently, it will continue to intensify, possibly reaching the stage of an intense tropical cyclone, turning towards the South and then the Southeast at the beginning of next week, more or less close to the African or Malagasy coasts.

- In terms of impacts, Antsiranana province in Madagascar has experienced the most intense conditions in recent hours. Winds are expected to gradually decrease, as well as intense rains. Seas remain dangerous on the west coast while they are easing on the east coast. Conditions are expected to continue to improve during the morning. Residents are encouraged to monitor the evolution of the forecast through their national weather service.

- Concerning Mayotte, the rainy and windy deterioration is confirmed for the morning. Very heavy rains that could generate flash floods, floods and landslides are expected in the coming hours and a good part of the day. Gusts of up to 80 to 90 km/h are possible, particularly on the southern part of the island. A dangerous sea state, particularly on the western lagoon, could also accompany this deterioration with a risk of marine submersion. The distance of the closest passage seems to be stabilizing at more than 100km south of the archipelago.

- Heavy rains are expected during the day in the Comoros, particularly in the highlands.

- Over Mozambique, even if the trend is for the system to turn a little more towards the centre of the channel, it is a mature system that could approach the coast of Nampula province on Monday, probably bringing disturbed weather. Heavy rains, strong winds and dangerous sea conditions with marine submersion are possible. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service.

Here are the expected intensities and positions of this low pressure system over the next few days:

[cycloneye]

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE APPROACHING THE STR AXIS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ALTER
COURSE SOUTHEASTWARD, CONTINUING TO ROUND THE RIDGE. THE INTENSITY
OF TC 07S WILL STAGNATE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH MOVES OUTBOUND EASTWARD. AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE IN, ALLOWING FOR A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
TO FORM BETWEEN TAU 24-72, IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WILL REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE UNTIL TAU 72.
THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS WILL
LEAD TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100KTS BY TAU 72. BY TAU 96, AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM WILL BEGIN TO INDUCE HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND BAROCLINIC FORCING, INITIATING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST AND
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL COMPLETE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK CLOSELY TO THE COAST OF
MOZAMBIQUE WITHIN THE FIRST 48 HOURS, BUT GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER AS
TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER LAND OR NOT. GFS DEPICTS THE
SYSTEM SKIRTING THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, BUT ECMWF KEEPS TC 07S
OVER WATER. HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR BOTH GEFS AND EC-EPS
DEPICT MOST MEMBERS KEEPING THE SYSTEM OVER WATER. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT THE TRACK MOVES OVER
LAND OR NOT, THUS GFS AND HWRF GUIDANCE DEPICT A SLOWER RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION WHILE COAMPS-TC AND HAFS-A INDICATE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE FIRST 72 HOURS.

[Hurricane2022]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE number 5

(DIKELEDI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 165 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 979 hPa.

Position on January 13 at 10 a.m. local time: 15.2 South / 41.5 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1580 km to the sector: WEST-NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 470 km to sector: SOUTH-WEST

Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 17 km/h.


System Information:

- DIKELEDI intensified to the stage of minimal tropical cyclone this early morning while evolving on a west-southwest trajectory approaching the Mozambican coast.

- DIKELEDI is expected to curve its trajectory to the southeast in the short term while continuing its intensification. Thus, on this forecast it should touch the coast of the province of Nampula during the following day and night before migrating into the southern Mozambique Channel while accelerating its course.

- From Tuesday, DIKELEDI should encounter beneficial environmental conditions to continue its intensification and reach the stage of intense tropical cyclone. In this context it will cross off the southwest coast of the province of Toliara, before reaching more southern latitudes from Thursday / Friday.

- In the short term, the provinces of Nampula and Cabo Delgado are experiencing very poor weather conditions. The official trajectory forecast does not predict the system landing on the land of Mozambique, however this possibility cannot be totally excluded at this time due to the great proximity of the system and the precision of the location of the center of the system. Thus, very heavy rains or even torrential rains are expected in the province of Nampula. Destructive or very destructive winds as well as dangerous sea conditions with a risk of marine submersion are also very likely as the system approaches. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service. In addition, heavy rains are still possible in the peripheral bands, along the Malagasy provinces (Antsiranana and Mahajanga) over the next 24 hours.

- In the longer term (Wednesday/Thursday), DIKELEDI could potentially threaten the southwest of the Malagasy coast, but this will be specified later, as it will depend on the final trajectory of the system.

- Regarding Juan de Nova, heavy rains and dangerous sea conditions with risk of marine submersion are possible on Monday and Tuesday.

- Regarding Europa, heavy rains, strong to destructive winds and dangerous sea conditions with risk of marine submersion are possible on Wednesday and Thursday.

[cycloneye]

The eye shows up despite being at the Mozambique coastline.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/NOAASatellites/status/1878797620795281846

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE number 5

(DIKELEDI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 140 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 195 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 971 hPa.

Position on January 13 at 4 p.m. local time: 15.2 South / 40.6 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1680 km to the sector: WEST-NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 560 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 13 km/h.


System Information:

- DIKELEDI slowed down while intensifying in recent hours. It finally landed at the tropical cyclone stage on the province of Nampula, south of Ihla de Mozambique in the early afternoon.

- The system will now transit over the province of Nampula this afternoon and tonight, gradually curving its trajectory towards the south. The transit over land will logically weaken the system and its intensity over the next few hours will depend closely on the duration of this terrestrial phase.

- DIKELEDI should end up returning to the warm waters of the Mozambique Channel late tonight, or even tomorrow morning, near the town of Angoche. To this end, it should regain activity up to the potential stage of cyclone or even intense cyclone during the day on Tuesday / Wednesday thanks to a favorable context, while accelerating its course towards the south-southeast, which would bring it closer to the west coast of the Malagasy province of Toliara. In the longer term (Thursday / Friday) the system should cross towards the southern latitudes taking a south-easterly direction.

- Currently the provinces of Nampula, Cabo Delgado and Zambezia are experiencing very degraded weather conditions, particularly close to the impact zone. Very heavy rains or even torrential rains affect these provinces and in particular Nampula. Destructive or very destructive winds as well as a dangerous sea state with a risk of marine submersion are currently in progress between Ihla de Mocambique and the north of Quelimane. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service. In addition, heavy residual rains are still possible in the peripheral bands, along the province of Mahajanga over the next 24 hours.

- In the longer term (Wednesday/Thursday), DIKELEDI could potentially threaten the southwest of the Malagasy coast, but this will be specified later, because it will depend on the final trajectory of the system, about which there are still uncertainties.

- Regarding Juan de Nova, heavy rains and dangerous sea conditions with risk of marine submersion are possible on Monday and Tuesday.

- Regarding Europa, heavy rains, strong to destructive winds and dangerous sea conditions with risk of marine submersion are possible on Wednesday and Thursday.

[cycloneye]

It has gone more inland inside Mozambique that expected and may not turn into the strong cyclone it was forecasted.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/Earth42morrow/status/1878829905586360325

[cycloneye]

WDXS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING
NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.5S 40.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 61 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NACALA,
MOZAMBIQUE
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: OVER LAND

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) AS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM JUST ONSHORE OF THE
COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. AN EYE BREIFLY APPEARED AROUND 131200Z AS 07S
MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE TOWN OF CALAJULO. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS
QUICKLY ERODED SINCE MAKING LANDFALL, INITIATING A BRIEF RAPID
WEAKENING TREND. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 07S IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GREATLY OFFSET BY
THE TERRAIN INTERACTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR AND A 131828Z GMI 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON SPARSE
CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW AND THE WEAKENING TREND OVER
LAND.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
CIMSS DPRINT: 61 KTS AT 131730Z
CIMSS MW SOUNDERS: 79 KTS AT 131638Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: OVER LAND
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: TERRAIN INTERACTION WITH MOZAMBIQUE

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD, ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER
TAU 48, 07S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
RIDGE AXIS AND HEADS TOWARD THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UPPER-LEVEL
JET. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 96
WITH COMPLETION AROUND TAU 120, AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. REGARDING INTENSITY, 07S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRAVERSE OVER EASTERN MOZAMBIQUE. AFTER TAU 12, TERRAIN INTERACTION
WILL CEASE AND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE. LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO AROUND
90 KTS AT TAU 48. A PEAK INTENSITY MAY OCCUR NEAR TAU 60 (NOT
PICTURED IN WARNING GRAPHIC DUE TO TEMPORAL LIMITATIONS). STARTING
AT TAU 72, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO RISE OVER 20 KTS AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES START TO DROP. THIS WILL CAUSE 07S TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS CONDITIONS WILL
ONLY WORSEN. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 45 KTS AS THE
SYSTEM FULLY TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TRACK OF 07S THOUGH TAU 72 WITH A 70 NM CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD AT THAT TIME. AFTER TAU 72, ALONG TRACK SPREAD INCREASES DUE
TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE VORTEX INTERACTS WITH THE JET. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH TAU 72 AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT WITH A SPLIT BETWEEN THE MESOSCALE MODELS
AND GLOBAL MODELS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFICATION
TREND THOUGH TAU 60. HWRF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF AROUND 115 KTS WHILE HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC SUGGEST A
PEAK OF 90-95 KTS. GFS DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY WITH A 60 KNOT
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 96. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED
CLOSER TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS DUE TO THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

[cycloneye]

Looks like the center is almost in the water.

STRONG TROPICAL STORM number 5

(DIKELEDI)


Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 130 km/h.

Estimated pressure at center: 993 hPa.

Position on January 14 at 04:00 local time: 16.2 South / 39.9 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1695 km to the sector: WEST-NORTH-WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 670 km to sector: SOUTH-WEST

Movement: SOUTH-WEST, at 11 km/h.


System Information:

- The strong tropical storm DIKELEDI has evolved over the last 12 hours on land in the province of Nampula, gradually curving its trajectory towards the south.

- DIKELEDI should return to the warm waters of the Mozambique Channel within a few hours, near the town of Angoche. Subsequently, the system should re-intensify to the potential stage of cyclone then intense cyclone during the day on Tuesday / Wednesday thanks to a favorable context, while accelerating its course towards the south-southeast, which would make it approach the west coast of the Malagasy province of Toliara. In the longer term (Thursday / Friday) the system should cross towards the southern latitudes taking a south-easterly direction.

- Currently the provinces of Nampula, Cabo Delgado and Zambezia are experiencing very poor weather conditions. Very heavy rains or even torrential rains are affecting these provinces and in particular Nampula. Destructive or very destructive winds as well as a dangerous sea state with a risk of marine submersion are currently underway between Ihla de Mocambique and the north of Quelimane. Residents are invited to follow the evolution of the forecasts through their national meteorological service. In addition, heavy residual rains are still possible in the peripheral bands, along the province of Mahajanga over the next 24 hours.

- In the longer term (Wednesday/Thursday), DIKELEDI could potentially threaten the southwest of the Malagasy coast, but this will be specified later, because it will depend on the final trajectory of the system, about which there are still uncertainties.

- Regarding Juan de Nova, heavy rains and dangerous sea conditions with risk of marine submersion are possible on Monday and Tuesday.

- Regarding Europa, heavy rains, strong to destructive winds and dangerous sea conditions with risk of marine submersion are possible on Wednesday and Thursday.