Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

Yeah the GFS is a comedy show lol, that CMC is down right ugly, that being said given the agreement with the euro, i think that might be what is closer to reality

[Throckmorton]

Icon says -34 for Denver and a winter storm for us. This might be a wild arctic blast after all.

No other operational model is colder than –4 on the same date and time.

[Stratton23]

Throckmorton keep in mind that the ICON generally has done better at seeing cold air than the globals though

[Throckmorton]

Throckmorton keep in mind that the ICON generally has done better at seeing cold air than the globals though

Not lately. In February 2021, yes. ICON is a global model, by the way.

[South Texas Storms]

Canadian continues to look way too cold for southeast TX. I highly doubt those temperatures verify unless there is snow/ice on the ground, and even that may not happen.

It showed the same thing for southeast TX with the cold blast last week and busted horribly.

[Ntxw]

Canadian continues to look way too cold for southeast TX. I highly doubt those temperatures verify unless there is snow/ice on the ground, and even that may not happen.

It showed the same thing for southeast TX with the cold blast last week and busted horribly.

May be right, but I don't buy the GFS it doesn't even get colder than this past week's cold either.

[South Texas Storms]

Canadian continues to look way too cold for southeast TX. I highly doubt those temperatures verify unless there is snow/ice on the ground, and even that may not happen.

It showed the same thing for southeast TX with the cold blast last week and busted horribly.

May be right, but I don't buy the GFS it doesn't even get colder than this past week's cold either.

Oh yeah I don't buy that either. The most likely scenario is somewhere in between those models. I'm expecting this next cold blast to be stronger than last week's, but probably not as bad as February 2021 at this point. Sure hope the grid can hold up better this time, although I have my concerns.

[cheezyWXguy]

Canadian continues to look way too cold for southeast TX. I highly doubt those temperatures verify unless there is snow/ice on the ground, and even that may not happen.

It showed the same thing for southeast TX with the cold blast last week and busted horribly.

Is a low temp of 22 that crazy? Looking at the maps posted above, the euro is the one that seems too crazy with its single digit lows.

[Stratton23]

cheezywxguy i think the difference with the euro is that it has snow/ ice on the ground from a winter storm, you get that and you could easily have teens and single digits for lows

[Ntxw]

Canadian continues to look way too cold for southeast TX. I highly doubt those temperatures verify unless there is snow/ice on the ground, and even that may not happen.

It showed the same thing for southeast TX with the cold blast last week and busted horribly.

May be right, but I don't buy the GFS it doesn't even get colder than this past week's cold either.

Oh yeah I don't buy that either. The most likely scenario is somewhere in between those models. I'm expecting this next cold blast to be stronger than last week's, but probably not as bad as February 2021 at this point. Sure hope the grid can hold up better this time, although I have my concerns.

It feels like this season the Euro has been the one to pick out the cold events and lead. It certainly has its flaws evident with the temp profiles on a more microscale, but broader out you want it on your side. I had disagreements with stratton earlier in the season because GFS kept showing cold when the Euro was not. And it was the Euro that led us to this past cold snap while the GFS was slow to the party.

[South Texas Storms]

Canadian continues to look way too cold for southeast TX. I highly doubt those temperatures verify unless there is snow/ice on the ground, and even that may not happen.

It showed the same thing for southeast TX with the cold blast last week and busted horribly.

Is a low temp of 22 that crazy? Looking at the maps posted above, the euro is the one that seems too crazy with its single digit lows.

Not necessarily, but a high of 25 is.

[Ntxw]

0z Euro went to the GFS.

[Stratton23]

Yeah that euro run is a literal crap show

[Throckmorton]

ECMWF operational (Jan 13th, 00Z) is quite a bit warmer for Texas than its previous run.

[cheezyWXguy]

Is this going to be one of those episodes where the models struggle with the pattern and underestimate the southward push of the cold air, periodically hanging it up or sending it east? Or is it a plausible possibility that the cold air could be shunted east even with the pattern setting up?

[Throckmorton]

Is this going to be one of those episodes where the models struggle with the pattern and underestimate the southward push of the cold air, periodically hanging it up or sending it east? Or is it a plausible possibility that the cold air could be shunted east even with the pattern setting up?

Either is possible.

[Stratton23]

I swear if everything starts trending to the east of us again, im just gonna flat out give up on winter, been burned too many times, looks exciting and promising at first, before eventually it just ends up in disappointment, really hoping thats not the case this time

[TropicalTundra]

Is this going to be one of those episodes where the models struggle with the pattern and underestimate the southward push of the cold air, periodically hanging it up or sending it east? Or is it a plausible possibility that the cold air could be shunted east even with the pattern setting up?

Don’t forget, we’re in the mid-period where models can’t, ya know, model

[Lagreeneyes03]

Personally i would love for that run to happen lol

I don't think you'd love being below freezing from Monday PM to Saturday PM and water pipes bursting in your attic if you left the water on for the week. If we really do get as cold as the Euro (hard to believe this far out), then I'll be shutting off water to the house on Monday and living with Home Depot buckets of water all week. Wow, that sounds like lots of fun!

The advice I got here on this board to shut of the water to my house in 2021 pretty much saved my house from flooding. My only big loss was my pool pump. I'll be forever grateful for that advice. Folks in my neighborhood had some terrible losses, they were out of their homes for nearly 9 months while repairs were done.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Parts of Texas be -50°F below normal on this 12z Euro run, I don't recall the last time the Euro was this aggressive

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXOx4.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXOx4.png

Anyone else starting to get a pit in their stomach looking at maps like this?
d
Anyone who’s seen my posts knows I’m a big fan of winter weather, but this is too much.

Same. I love snow but not this. We were 4.5 days with no power last time, honestly was one of the most traumatic things I've ever been through. We were fortunate enough to get a hotel for the last 2 of the days in a part of DFW that will pretty much never lose power, I just made a "just in case" reservation there. I'm going to start mentally preparing.