Texas Winter 2024-2025

[TeamPlayersBlue]

GFS has snow in Houston!

Pure frontgenesis. You can get those dynamics with a big HP. Not a crazy idea.

[Stratton23]

Precipitation aside, the 12z Euro came back to its senses again, cold air gets driven straight down into texas, definitely colder than 00z run

[Ntxw]

Precipitation aside, the 12z Euro came back to its senses again, cold air gets driven straight down into texas, definitely colder than 00z run

Yeah it's a little colder early next week. Snow is mostly confined to the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma.

[Harp.1]

Damn!!!

[Quicksilver17]

GEFS definitely looks colder than previous runs for early next week.

Yep. It has progressively gotten colder in the last three runs. Good sign methinks.

I don't want the pipe busting cold. Just give me 28-30F and snow...

Agreed...those are just right temps to enjoy!

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 dont worry about precipitation on an operational model 8-9 days out, you dont really look for that until you start getting within 5-6 days

[orangeblood]

Going to be really difficult to get any significant precip with this 5h look, pacific moisture is cutoff! Even on ensembles

[Stratton23]

Ensembles still have a decent precipitation signal for parts of texas, but QPF is mainly confined to central- se texas and plints eastward ( lousiana etc) ensembles really are dry for north texas

[wxman57]

GFS has snow in Houston!

Shhhh.... Don't say it too loud. 57 will send reinforcements to strengthen his wall just north of the Houston metro area.

Too late. I saw yesterday's 12Z EC run and had my wall reinforced.

[CaptinCrunch]

Harp.1 dont worry about precipitation on an operational model 8-9 days out, you dont really look for that until you start getting within 5-6 days

Actually I wouldn't be looking for precip chances until we are inside the 72 hour mark of the forecast.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Also, FYI, I've been using the LuckGrib app for forecast point weather data and I love it. Able to put in my exact location and get weather data for exactly where I live. Helpful since even a few miles either direction, temps and weather change quickly here due to the mountains.

00z Euro has a low of -17.2 degrees for me Next Monday morning.

[Gotwood]

Euro with much more realistic cold. Probably be a dry cold for the most part maybe like last last January around the same time.

[Stratton23]

Gotwood cant say the euro will be right with the dry cold, have to take into account all the other models, especially given the globals do not handle siberian air well at all, considering their is a still big disagreement, i wouldnt say any one model is right , right now, until we actually see them converge on one similar solution

[wxman57]

12Z EC is dry for TX. Low of 25F in Houston Tuesday morning then above freezing for Wednesday's low. Warming from there (so far). More reasonable than yesterday's 12Z run. Considering that every model run will have a different solution until maybe Saturday, I would say "this" or "that" will happen just yet.

[Stratton23]

Ensembles today have trended colder again

[Snowman67]

12Z EC is dry for TX. Low of 22F in Houston Tuesday morning then above freezing for Wednesday's low. Warming from there (so far). More reasonable than yesterday's 12Z run. Considering that every model run will have a different solution until maybe Saturday, I would say "this" or "that" will happen just yet.

Do you tend to put more stock in temperatures or precipitation being depicted in the models (7-8 days out from a potential winter event)?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

12Z EC is dry for TX. Low of 22F in Houston Tuesday morning then above freezing for Wednesday's low. Warming from there (so far). More reasonable than yesterday's 12Z run. Considering that every model run will have a different solution until maybe Saturday, I would say "this" or "that" will happen just yet.

Do you tend to put more stock in temperatures or precipitation being depicted in the models (7-8 days out from a potential winter event)?

Certainly not precip. 7-8 days out we can’t sample our disturbances on our side of the globe.

You get a pretty good idea which way temps are going based on upper air trends.

[cheezyWXguy]

Although most models are dry for now, the case for precip shouldn’t be ruled out. It’s kind of a crapshoot right now, and as others said, it’s a few days out from when we’ll be able to nail down if or where frozen precip occurs. One thing I’ve noticed about the systems that have passed through since late December is that they’ve tended slow and dive south a bit more than models indicated in the days leading up to them. Last week’s system was on the tail end of the cold air episode, and that slowdown screwed over Dallas and points south while points north got some good payoff. The setx tornado outbreak was aided by a slower deeper system as well.

With this next system being on the leading edge of the cold, the same factors that hindered us previously may work out in our favor this time. Just something to look for in future runs.

[Ntxw]

Although most models are dry for now, the case for precip shouldn’t be ruled out. It’s kind of a crapshoot right now, and as others said, it’s a few days out from when we’ll be able to nail down if or where frozen precip occurs. One thing I’ve noticed about the systems that have passed through since late December is that they’ve tended slow and dive south a bit more than models indicated in the days leading up to them. Last week’s system was on the tail end of the cold air episode, and that slowdown screwed over Dallas and points south while points north got some good payoff. The setx tornado outbreak was aided by a slower deeper system as well.

With this next system being on the leading edge of the cold, the same factors that hindered us previously may work out in our favor this time. Just something to look for in future runs.

GFS and Euro I would roll the dice with. It gets sheared out quickly and dries out with 850s and up so cold, but perhaps a slower dig could get us to an ICON solution like you mentioned.

[txtwister78]

My personal opinion is if we see any precip, odds favor a little further south this time with a much colder airmass in place. Now whether that is in the form of weak overrunning or perhaps a few impulses helping to generate a bit more wintery precipitation who knows at this range, but I do feel like that's still on the table. Nothing right now screams winter storm yet but still several days out.