Texas Winter 2024-2025

[snownado]

Agree on Evan Andrews. Another subtle jab at followers of weather. He was once the same thing without social media. Had he grown up in the era of exploding social media, guaranteed he would be all over it, just like we are.
If you can check out the Fox4 noon weather report from young Dylan Federico. It's a thought out report with a couple of informative descriptions of the effects of cross polar flow and snowpack to the north. More information rather than bitterness in my opinion. Again, I've been watching Evan for years but I think more professionalism is needed on his part. Follow social media but ignore it on air . Obviously he follows social media quite a bit.

Say what you will about his crass style of communication, but he ultimately had the last laugh with the last storm, lol...

EDIT: And I just watched the video. He wasn't factually incorrect...

[Texas Snow]

It's inappropriate to be criticizing professional meteorologists in this forum, correct?

They aren’t criticizing anything to do with his forecasting, they are criticizing his need to be a jerk to other people. I think we need to move on, but I don’t think their posts need to be removed or anything.

[gpsnowman]

Agree on Evan Andrews. Another subtle jab at followers of weather. He was once the same thing without social media. Had he grown up in the era of exploding social media, guaranteed he would be all over it, just like we are.
If you can check out the Fox4 noon weather report from young Dylan Federico. It's a thought out report with a couple of informative descriptions of the effects of cross polar flow and snowpack to the north. More information rather than bitterness in my opinion. Again, I've been watching Evan for years but I think more professionalism is needed on his part. Follow social media but ignore it on air . Obviously he follows social media quite a bit.

Say what you will about his crass style of communication, but he ultimately had the last laugh with the last storm, lol...

I agree and his talents as a forecaster are quite obvious. He just needs to stick to his outlooks and explain things more professionally IMO. It would be frivolous to gripe about something you can't control. Personally I have been watching TV Mets since the late 70s and have the utmost respect for them and what they deliver. Just stop getting personal. Seems petty and petulant to me on air

[cheezyWXguy]

Agree on Evan Andrews. Another subtle jab at followers of weather. He was once the same thing without social media. Had he grown up in the era of exploding social media, guaranteed he would be all over it, just like we are.
If you can check out the Fox4 noon weather report from young Dylan Federico. It's a thought out report with a couple of informative descriptions of the effects of cross polar flow and snowpack to the north. More information rather than bitterness in my opinion. Again, I've been watching Evan for years but I think more professionalism is needed on his part. Follow social media but ignore it on air . Obviously he follows social media quite a bit.

Say what you will about his crass style of communication, but he ultimately had the last laugh with the last storm, lol...

Maybe, but the higher totals we, and I’m sure the rest of social media, were discussing weren’t some fantasy run 300 hours out. With the high qpf amounts verifying, the variance of a degree or two was what separated him from getting the last laugh and being the last laugh.

It’s actually almost comical to me how well the nws forecast verified, knowing they basically had to split the difference between boom and bust. With the early phase of the event over performing and the remainder underperforming, reality effectively ended up splitting the difference right along with them.

[Stratton23]

18z ICON through hour 120 has a stronger arctic high ( 1057 mb on this run) last run was 1053 fwiw

[snownado]

Agree on Evan Andrews. Another subtle jab at followers of weather. He was once the same thing without social media. Had he grown up in the era of exploding social media, guaranteed he would be all over it, just like we are.
If you can check out the Fox4 noon weather report from young Dylan Federico. It's a thought out report with a couple of informative descriptions of the effects of cross polar flow and snowpack to the north. More information rather than bitterness in my opinion. Again, I've been watching Evan for years but I think more professionalism is needed on his part. Follow social media but ignore it on air . Obviously he follows social media quite a bit.

Say what you will about his crass style of communication, but he ultimately had the last laugh with the last storm, lol...

I agree and his talents as a forecaster are quite obvious. He just needs to stick to his outlooks and explain things more professionally IMO. It would be frivolous to gripe about something you can't control. Personally I have been watching TV Mets since the late 70s and have the utmost respect for them and what they deliver. Just stop getting personal. Seems petty and petulant to me on air

There's an old-fashioned saying that goes "A hit dog will holler," and I think that applies here.

Now granted, I know some aren't a fan of the "direct" or "blunt" messaging, but I wouldn't describe his messaging as "unprofessional" or "personal" either. He is correct that there are many people on social media guilty of spreading misinformation about the upcoming potential pattern (I'm quite sure that doesn't apply to anyone here) and he is also technically correct about what the CPC map that is being spread around by others actually means. Now sure, we might think what he's doing is petty, but I'm sure he's only expressing the same sentiment that most meteorologists have (but are too polite to say it), as these individuals are doing them a disservice in a certain kind of way.

Me personally, I respect that he doesn't mince words and I know where we he stands.

[Ntxw]

18z ICON through hour 120 has a stronger arctic high ( 1057 mb on this run) last run was 1053 fwiw

And it's still digging the trough far to the west.

[snownado]

Agree on Evan Andrews. Another subtle jab at followers of weather. He was once the same thing without social media. Had he grown up in the era of exploding social media, guaranteed he would be all over it, just like we are.
If you can check out the Fox4 noon weather report from young Dylan Federico. It's a thought out report with a couple of informative descriptions of the effects of cross polar flow and snowpack to the north. More information rather than bitterness in my opinion. Again, I've been watching Evan for years but I think more professionalism is needed on his part. Follow social media but ignore it on air . Obviously he follows social media quite a bit.

Say what you will about his crass style of communication, but he ultimately had the last laugh with the last storm, lol...

Maybe, but the higher totals we, and I’m sure the rest of social media, were discussing weren’t some fantasy run 300 hours out. With the high qpf amounts verifying, the variance of a degree or two was what separated him from getting the last laugh and being the last laugh.

It’s actually almost comical to me how well the nws forecast verified, knowing they basically had to split the difference between boom and bust. With the early phase of the event over performing and the remainder underperforming, reality effectively ended up splitting the difference right along with them.

True, but in Evan's defense, he did (and still does with this potential upcoming pattern) have climo on his side to back up his skepticism (we and others on social media did not) and it was still far enough out (72 hours) to justify not putting a ton of stock into those extreme runs from a professional & presentation standpoint.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

18z ICON through hour 120 has a stronger arctic high ( 1057 mb on this run) last run was 1053 fwiw

And it's still digging the trough far to the west.

This is what would bring me really cold temps.

[Portastorm]

It's inappropriate to be criticizing professional meteorologists in this forum, correct?

Here is the rule:

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act respectfully at all times.

I think this discussion has gotten fairly close to crossing the line ... but IMO we are not there yet. But wearing my moderator hat, I would like to see us drop the subject and get back to the weather.

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro literally rinses and repeats for the end of the month to have another arctic invasion

[cheezyWXguy]

Say what you will about his crass style of communication, but he ultimately had the last laugh with the last storm, lol...

Maybe, but the higher totals we, and I’m sure the rest of social media, were discussing weren’t some fantasy run 300 hours out. With the high qpf amounts verifying, the variance of a degree or two was what separated him from getting the last laugh and being the last laugh.

It’s actually almost comical to me how well the nws forecast verified, knowing they basically had to split the difference between boom and bust. With the early phase of the event over performing and the remainder underperforming, reality effectively ended up splitting the difference right along with them.

True, but in Evan's defense, he did (and still does with this potential upcoming pattern) have climo on his side to back up his skepticism (we and others on social media did not) and it was still far enough out (72 hours) to justify not putting a ton of stock into those extreme runs from a professional & presentation standpoint.

No doubt he’s good at what he does, and in case it wasn’t clear in my previous post was praising the nws for making the right call. I just thought it was funny because having forecasting down the middle between two nearly equal chance options is a hedging tactic to minimize error in either direction, and it ended up being close to exactly in the middle.

I think the reason why his choice of words has resulted in the reaction some of us have had today is when he showed the cpc’s map and said (paraphrased) “no one besides me will tell you that it means confidence in below normal temperatures and not severity of cold” as if everyone who talks online about weather is stoking the hype machine and farming engagement. Plenty of people will and do contextualize these maps when they post them, even if others don’t. This might seem like splitting hairs on his messaging, but given how frequently comments are made like that these days I could see it being enough to discourage some discussion on social media if everyone who does so is labeled as a clickbaiter by the people they look up to.

Back on topic, I like that the icon looks to be sticking to its guns on the 18z run with the trough set up to dig farther to the southwest. Would give it more credibility if we see the gfs follow.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro literally rinses and repeats for the end of the month to have another arctic invasion

EPS keeps the US/Canadian border cold. It's consistent with retrogression of trough, and a little more Nina tendencies. I do hold reservations on deep -PNA since the SOI is not corresponding.

[rwfromkansas]

If we can keep the cold going at some point moisture will come, even if it's a small shortwave. Small storms can squeeze out decent snow even with limited moisture in Arctic cold. However, it does look like we can't count on a mid-February storm this year as it may be an early warm-up based on the MJO progression etc.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Also, FYI, I've been using the LuckGrib app for forecast point weather data and I love it. Able to put in my exact location and get weather data for exactly where I live. Helpful since even a few miles either direction, temps and weather change quickly here due to the mountains.

00z Euro has a low of -17.2 degrees for me Next Monday morning.

That app is so awesome! Thank you

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro literally rinses and repeats for the end of the month to have another arctic invasion

EPS keeps the US/Canadian border cold. It's consistent with retrogression of trough, and a little more Nina tendencies. I do hold reservations on deep -PNA since the SOI is not corresponding.

It also keeps the -EPO going, we could be in for a very long winter

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXJ5b.gif

[Ntxw]

So the next question is, is the -20s and -30s going to be held up in the Dakotas with ~1050s HP?

[Stratton23]

I dont see that happening, clearly the GFS is struggling big time with this , if you have a 1050+ arctic high coming down the central plains, its going to force that bitter cold to come down further south than depicted

[snownado]

Maybe, but the higher totals we, and I’m sure the rest of social media, were discussing weren’t some fantasy run 300 hours out. With the high qpf amounts verifying, the variance of a degree or two was what separated him from getting the last laugh and being the last laugh.

It’s actually almost comical to me how well the nws forecast verified, knowing they basically had to split the difference between boom and bust. With the early phase of the event over performing and the remainder underperforming, reality effectively ended up splitting the difference right along with them.

True, but in Evan's defense, he did (and still does with this potential upcoming pattern) have climo on his side to back up his skepticism (we and others on social media did not) and it was still far enough out (72 hours) to justify not putting a ton of stock into those extreme runs from a professional & presentation standpoint.

No doubt he’s good at what he does, and in case it wasn’t clear in my previous post was praising the nws for making the right call. I just thought it was funny because having forecasting down the middle between two nearly equal chance options is a hedging tactic to minimize error in either direction, and it ended up being close to exactly in the middle.

I think the reason why his choice of words has resulted in the reaction some of us have had today is when he showed the cpc’s map and said (paraphrased) “no one besides me will tell you that it means confidence in below normal temperatures and not severity of cold” as if everyone who talks online about weather is stoking the hype machine and farming engagement. Plenty of people will and do contextualize these maps when they post them, even if others don’t. This might seem like splitting hairs on his messaging, but given how frequently comments are made like that these days I could see it being enough to discourage some discussion on social media if everyone who does so is labeled as a clickbaiter by the people they look up to.

Back on topic, I like that the icon looks to be sticking to its guns on the 18z run with the trough set up to dig farther to the southwest. Would give it more credibility if we see the gfs follow.

FWIW, Evan Andrews is a native of suburban NYC (Long Island). So that would explain the tone of his messaging.

But that's the last I'll say about it, as requested by Portastorm

[Lagreeneyes03]

How could we function without Internet connected washing machines, refrigerators, microwave ovens, and door locks? How many young people know how to use a can opener?

Yeesh, if that’s the state of our young people, what does that say about the parenting from the older people?

I had to use a can opener for the first time in years this week because the pull open top on my can of beans for our 3 king's day dinner wouldn't come off lol. I felt like I was in pioneer times.