Texas Winter 2024-2025

[txtwister78]

 https://x.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1878893057036485071

[Iceresistance]

I wonder if the model uncertainty is too high for snow forecasts

Didn't we have that in the last storm?

[Brent]

I wonder if the model uncertainty is too high for snow forecasts

Didn't we have that in the last storm?

A week ago the GFS had a snow hole here and at one point it was gonna snow in Florida

We see how that turned out

I mean it could be dry it's always a risk with Arctic air but it's just too far out

[gpsnowman]

 https://x.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1878893057036485071

Ahh the memories. We moved to DFW the summer before from San Antonio and I remember being extremely jealous of the snowfall down there. The winter of 84-85 really triggered my love of weather. DFW had a great winter in January and February that year. During my three year move in San Antonio from 81-84 we had one little snowfall while I was in second grade, from morning till early afternoon. A San Antonio poster had to remind me of when it was, in January of 1982. Funny I have no recollection of the December 1983 winter blast at all.

[Stratton23]

18z GEFS has a pretty decent snowfall signal in eastern texas and parts of se texas

[Ntxw]

18z Euro has 1060mb high pressure sitting in Northern Montana. That would be nuts..given most of the records are 1060s.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw yeah looks like the 18z Euro made a big shift back west with the trough, and definitely significantly colder than the 12z through hour 144, tonights runs will be very int

[Ntxw]

Ntxw yeah looks like the 18z Euro made a big shift back west with the trough, and definitely significantly colder than the 12z through hour 144, tonights runs will be very int

I just have a hard time believing -20s to -40s sitting up there with a cold high pressure system in the upper 1050s to 1060s and it's a glance.

[Iceresistance]

Ntxw yeah looks like the 18z Euro made a big shift back west with the trough, and definitely significantly colder than the 12z through hour 144, tonights runs will be very int

I just have a hard time believing -20s to -40s sitting up there with a cold high pressure system in the upper 1050s to 1060s and it's a glance.

So western trough means more overrunning events for us?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw yeah looks like the 18z Euro made a big shift back west with the trough, and definitely significantly colder than the 12z through hour 144, tonights runs will be very int

I just have a hard time believing -20s to -40s sitting up there with a cold high pressure system in the upper 1050s to 1060s and it's a glance.

So western trough means more overrunning events for us?

Yeah but even without that, this to me looks like a very cold, dense air mass that's going to bulldoze. I'm not sure it won't, have seen this story before.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ntxw yeah looks like the 18z Euro made a big shift back west with the trough, and definitely significantly colder than the 12z through hour 144, tonights runs will be very int

I just have a hard time believing -20s to -40s sitting up there with a cold high pressure system in the upper 1050s to 1060s and it's a glance.

Yeah, the temps and MSLP aren't matching up. Should try and compare it to other large arctic blasts. Trough looks deep enough for most of the cold air to head south and not to the east. I think if the HP is going to be that big, the trough will lean more towards the west.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw yeah looks like the 18z Euro made a big shift back west with the trough, and definitely significantly colder than the 12z through hour 144, tonights runs will be very int

I just have a hard time believing -20s to -40s sitting up there with a cold high pressure system in the upper 1050s to 1060s and it's a glance.

Yeah, the temps and MSLP aren't matching up. Should try and compare it to other large arctic blasts. Trough looks deep enough for most of the cold air to head south and not to the east. I think if the HP is going to be that big, the trough will lean more towards the west.

It's what happened in January 2023. The zonal/SW flow from the GFS/Euro kept saying no but ICON and a few of us here said otherwise against the grain. It's very easy for dense, cold air to slide a chunk and sit over the plains into Texas at the lower levels.

[dhweather]

In 5,948 hours the GFS has a CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!!!!

The Euro only has it as a cat 4.

[orangeblood]

18z Euro has 1060mb high pressure sitting in Northern Montana. That would be nuts..given most of the records are 1060s.

Euro locked in at 5h around this time frame for last weeks storm and didn’t budge. GFS was all over the place.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw yep, im betting the dam is going to burst again in this situation, youre just not holding back all that cold with a 1050+ mb high driving it down the central US, happens every time, and wouldnt be surprised if it happens again here

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I just have a hard time believing -20s to -40s sitting up there with a cold high pressure system in the upper 1050s to 1060s and it's a glance.

Yeah, the temps and MSLP aren't matching up. Should try and compare it to other large arctic blasts. Trough looks deep enough for most of the cold air to head south and not to the east. I think if the HP is going to be that big, the trough will lean more towards the west.

It's what happened in January 2023. The zonal/SW flow from the GFS/Euro kept saying no but ICON and a few of us here said otherwise against the grain. It's very easy for dense, cold air to slide a chunk and sit over the plains into Texas at the lower levels.

The euro sees a 1044MB high making down into C Tx. The temps are not lining up with this at all. We know the euro does not handle shallow air well, but temps will be much colder than it's showing if a high that big makes it into Texas.

[bubba hotep]

Ntxw yeah looks like the 18z Euro made a big shift back west with the trough, and definitely significantly colder than the 12z through hour 144, tonights runs will be very int

18z



vs.

12z

[Stratton23]

bubba hotep yup, 18z Euro shifted the trough axis back SW, that makes a huge difference

[Ntxw]

While we wait for the 0z suite, all of the ensembles are now highlighting the last few days of January for another cold snap. Maybe centered around the 28th with EC ridge and central trough.

This likely will guarantee January finishes below normal for most.

[Throckmorton]

The EPS mean forecast temperatures for Jan. 20th along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 13th, 12Z run):

24–08...(33–B01)...B02...0.59...Amarillo
32–20...(37–17).....17......0.39...Austin Camp Mabry
29–18...(34–14).....10......0.16...Dallas
35–25...(49–21).....20......0.08...Houston
25–10...(33–03).....01......0.24...Oklahoma City
24–10...(30–06).....B03...0.20...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, all of these stations except Tulsa would get within five degrees of the existing record lows.

On average, the EPS is 6.9° cooler than the GEFS and 5.8° warmer than the GEPS.

=====

The GEFS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 20th along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 13th, 18Z run):

28–14...(38–10)...B02...0.52...Amarillo
40–25...(49–20)...17.....0.21...Austin Camp Mabry
37–23...(45–18)...10.....0.13...Dallas
45–34...(51–30)...20.....0.05...Houston
30–21...(39–16)...01.....0.11...Oklahoma City
28–18...(37–12)...B03...0.13...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, only Austin Camp Mabry would get within five degrees of the existing record lows.

On average, the GEFS is 11.9° warmer than the GEPS.

=====

The GEPS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 20th along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 13th, 12Z run):

12–B01...(23–B10)...B02...1.10...Amarillo
27–19.....(40–10)......17.....0.28...Austin Camp Mabry
22–16.....(38–07)......10.....0.35...Dallas
39–28.....(53–19)..... 20.....0.08...Houston
12–02.....(21–B04)....01.....0.39...Oklahoma City
12–02.....(22–B05)...B03...0.39...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, all of these stations would break the existing record lows. At the 50th percentile, every station except Dallas and Houston would get within five degrees of the existing record lows.