Florida Weather

[psyclone]

A quiet thread means the fantasy freeze has departed the field...for now

[gatorcane]

It's going to feel cold across Florida but so far the models have been getting warmer and warmer each run, particularly the GFS, with a freeze still possible down into interior Central Florida but even that looks less likely than just a few days ago and the GFS has dropped that idea. It certainly doesn't look like "record-breaking" cold that models were showing at first.

Also looking unlikely to see any wintry precip even for the panhandle of Florida.

[psyclone]

It is going to be stoutly chilly. We may get 3 consecutive days in my corner of the world with sub 60 highs. That is quite unusual and wayyyy colder than I prefer....But at least no freeze threat as of now

[Abdullah]

This morning a temperature of 50 degrees F was recorded at Miami International Airport for the first time since the cold snap of January 2023, nearly two years ago!

[Abdullah]

Historical climatology for Miami International Airport for the previous ten winters, Daily Minimum

Source: NOWData NWS

Winter refers to the months of December to February, since of all the days where the temperature has dipped below 60°F in the ten previous winters, 80% of them happened in those three months. Of the remaining, 11% happened in March and 8% happened in November. The temperature has never gone below 50°F outside the three core winter months.

For reference. The mean minimum temperature for a winter day in Miami from December 2014 to February 2024 was 65°F.

Days with a minimum temperature below 60°F:

Winter of 2014–2015: 32 (36% of days)
Winter of 2015–2016: 24 (26% of days)
Winter of 2016–2017: 12 (13% of days)
Winter of 2017–2018: 23 (26% of days)
Winter of 2018–2019: 25 (28% of days)
Winter of 2019–2020: 20 (22% of days)
Winter of 2020–2021: 31 (34% of days)
Winter of 2021–2022: 16 (18% of days)
Winter of 2022–2023: 16 (18% of days)
Winter of 2023–2024: 31 (34% of days)

Total: 230 (25% of days)
Average: 23 (25% of days)

Winter of 2024–2025 so far up to January 8: 11

Days with a minimum temperature below 50°F:

Winter of 2014–2015: 5 (6% of days)
Winter of 2015–2016: 1 (1% of days)
Winter of 2016–2017: 0 (0% of days)
Winter of 2017–2018: 6 (7% of days)
Winter of 2018–2019: 1 (1% of days)
Winter of 2019–2020: 3 (3% of days)
Winter of 2020–2021: 5 (6% of days)
Winter of 2021–2022: 4 (4% of days)
Winter of 2022–2023: 6 (7% of days)
Winter of 2023–2024: 0 (0% of days)

Total: 31 (3% of days)
Average: 3 (3% of days)

Winter of 2024–2025 so far up to January 8: 0

Days with a minimum temperature below 40°F:

Winter of 2014–2015: 0 (0% of days)
Winter of 2015–2016: 0 (0% of days)
Winter of 2016–2017: 0 (0% of days)
Winter of 2017–2018: 0 (0% of days)
Winter of 2018–2019: 0 (0% of days)
Winter of 2019–2020: 0 (0% of days) NOTE: January 22, 2020 had a low of 40°F
Winter of 2020–2021: 0 (0% of days)
Winter of 2021–2022: 0 (0% of days)
Winter of 2022–2023: 0 (0% of days)
Winter of 2023–2024: 0 (0% of days)

Total: 0 (0% of days)
Average: 0 (0% of days)

Winter of 2024–2025 so far up to January 8: 0

As of today, the latest day that Miami International Airport saw a temperature begin with "3" was December 28, 2010 when the low was 39°F.

[Abdullah]

Historical climatology for Miami International Airport for the previous ten winters, Daily Maximum

Source: NOWData NWS

Winter refers to the months of December to February, since of all the days where the temperature has failed to reach 70°F in the ten previous winters, 95% of them happened in those three months. Of the remaining, all happened in November. The temperature has never failed to reach 60°F outside the three core winter months.

For reference. The mean maximum temperature for a winter day in Miami from December 2014 to February 2024 was 79°F.

Days with a maximum temperature below 70°F:

Winter of 2014–2015: 8 (9% of days)
Winter of 2015–2016: 10 (11% of days)
Winter of 2016–2017: 1 (1% of days)
Winter of 2017–2018: 8 (9% of days)
Winter of 2018–2019: 6 (7% of days)
Winter of 2019–2020: 5 (5% of days)
Winter of 2020–2021: 8 (9% of days)
Winter of 2021–2022: 5 (6% of days)
Winter of 2022–2023: 5 (6% of days)
Winter of 2023–2024: 4 (4% of days)

Total: 60 (7% of days)
Average: 6 (7% of days)

Winter of 2024–2025 so far up to January 8: 1

Days with a maximum temperature below 60°F:

Winter of 2014–2015: 0 (0% of days)
Winter of 2015–2016: 0 (0% of days)
Winter of 2016–2017: 0 (0% of days)
Winter of 2017–2018: 0 (0% of days)
Winter of 2018–2019: 0 (0% of days)
Winter of 2019–2020: 0 (0% of days)
Winter of 2020–2021: 0 (0% of days)
Winter of 2021–2022: 0 (0% of days)
Winter of 2022–2023: 3 (3% of days)
Winter of 2023–2024: 0 (0% of days)

Total: 3 (Less than 1% of days)
Average: Less than 1 (Less than 1% of days)

Winter of 2024–2025 so far up to January 8: 0

As of today, the latest day that Miami International Airport saw its temperature fail to reach 60°F occurred in December 26, 2022, where a maximum temperature of 56°F was recorded. It was a part of an exceptional three-day stretch, with its most prominent day, December 25, 2022, had a temperature range from 45°F to 50°F.

The latest day that Miami International Airport saw its temperature fail to reach 50°F (although Christmas 2022 was very close!) occurred in January 10, 2010, which had a temperature range of 35°F to 48°F!

[chaser1]

Thats a pretty interesting look back at MIA's Winter temps during the past 14 years. Growing up in the Kendall area since about 1970, I seem to clearly recall that local Winter low temps were colder than recent years. In particular, I'm pretty sure that most years had one or more nights where temperatures dipped into the 30's. To be fair though, there are two reporting stations down there that I paid attention to and they were MIA airport and also the Kendall Tamiami airport. There typically is a decent nighttime low temp gradient between the two since the W Kendall Tamiami airport location is a good deal further inland. Still, I'd be interested to verify what the Mia airport recorded low temps events where lows were in the 30's for the 30 year span from 1970 - 2010.

[psyclone]

This is a marathon chill sesh. We may be looking at several weeks below normal at the coldest time of the year. It's the first time in years. I prefer the torchy or at least more normal temps...but the cold fans have been locked out for a long time...

[chaser1]

This is a marathon chill sesh. We may be looking at several weeks below normal at the coldest time of the year. It's the first time in years. I prefer the torchy or at least more normal temps...but the cold fans have been locked out for a long time...

Sure is! At least from my perspective, this is the longest stretch of chilly weather that I have experienced during the 10 years living here in the Central Florida area. We all know it won't last but medium to long range models seem to suggest that this will continue for most of this month. I'm gonna need to beef up on my firewood lol

How about you guys down south? No doubt the overall flow pattern has impacted the entire state, but it doesn't seem like nighttime low temps have been all that cold down there.

[Abdullah]

This is a marathon chill sesh. We may be looking at several weeks below normal at the coldest time of the year. It's the first time in years. I prefer the torchy or at least more normal temps...but the cold fans have been locked out for a long time...

Sure is! At least from my perspective, this is the longest stretch of chilly weather that I have experienced during the 10 years living here in the Central Florida area. We all know it won't last but medium to long range models seem to suggest that this will continue for most of this month. I'm gonna need to beef up on my firewood lol

How about you guys down south? No doubt the overall flow pattern has impacted the entire state, but it doesn't seem like nighttime low temps have been all that cold down there.

Nothing crazy down here

[Abdullah]

As we get closer to the end of this week, Miami is anticipating two more days of lows in the 40s, coming on Thursday morning and Friday morning, along with two more days of highs in the 60s, coming on Wednesday and Thursday.

Considering the climate outlook, I believe one of these two days will likely contain the coldest day and coldest night we'll see this winter.

Current official forecast and current ECMWF forecast linked. Subject to change:


https://i.imgur.com/vjYtDM2.png


https://i.imgur.com/QzAOoF7.jpeg

This could be the event that we've been waiting for.

[Abdullah]

The very first time in a while we see probabilistic forecasts for freezing temperatures in the South Florida area and its vicinity in a long time. Maybe since the product was launched. At least I can't remember seeing anything like this.


https://i.imgur.com/OlMqdfl.png


https://i.imgur.com/tTLuaQq.png

Still no expectations for hard freeze anywhere.

---

For reference, these are the current probabilistic forecasts of the temperature at Miami (KMIA):

Wednesday high:

10th percentile: 61°F
50th percentile: 69°F
90th percentile: 73°F

Thursday morning low:

10th percentile: 40°F
50th percentile: 50°F
90th percentile: 52°F

Thursday high:

10th percentile: 61°F
50th percentile: 65°F
90th percentile: 71°F

Friday morning low:

10th percentile: 42°F
50th percentile: 47°F
90th percentile: 52°F

Wednesday is likely and Thursday is very likely to have a high in the 60s.

Thursday morning has about a half chance of being in the low 50s and a half chance of being anywhere in the 40s, with certain extreme scenarios possible. Friday morning meanwhile is likely to be in the 40s, but has a smaller chance of extreme scenarios.

---

Waiting and seeing how the situation evolves!

[chaser1]

Seems as if South Florida is getting the same extended cool weather as the rest of the state, but minus any significant cold low temps. Pretty decent Chamber of Commerce weather though

[gatorcane]

Chilly yes but overall no real freeze down into the peninsula yet and nothing record-breaking to speak of. 10 days ago it looked like the next few days were going to shatter records. The GFS also keeps coming in a bit warmer over the next week or more.

[Abdullah]

For reference, these are the current probabilistic forecasts of the temperature at Miami (KMIA):

Wednesday high:

10th percentile: 61°F
50th percentile: 69°F
90th percentile: 73°F

Thursday morning low:

10th percentile: 40°F
50th percentile: 50°F
90th percentile: 52°F

Thursday high:

10th percentile: 61°F
50th percentile: 65°F
90th percentile: 71°F

Friday morning low:

10th percentile: 42°F
50th percentile: 47°F
90th percentile: 52°F

As of today, any chances of freezing temperatures in South Florida have evaporated, now only being available in Central Florida.

The projected temperatures have raised so far that we may not, in fact, see the coldest temperatures of the winter. Below normal temperatures will begin as soon as the frontal boundary comes in (and now it is projected to be weakening) on Tuesday evening. They will end, though, by Saturday morning, reverting to the average to above normal range they often find themselves in.

Here are the new projections (10th percentile / 50th percentile / 90th percentile):

54°F / 61°F / 66°F - Wednesday morning low
69°F / 72°F / 75°F - Wednesday high
46°F / 56°F / 61°F - Thursday morning low
65°F / 69°F / 73°F - Thursday high
45°F / 53°F / 60°F - Friday morning low
68°F / 70°F / 75°F - Friday morning low

This week likely won't be one to remember. Notably, the Euro is higher on such extreme cold in the 40s as the NWS is.

---

As per the Euro, we may see conditions for extreme cold return after what looks to be an unusually warm Sunday.
However, it is too far in the future to be certain.


https://i.imgur.com/mOuVBGr.png

[psyclone]

Ahhhh yes the Euro. Go back to the prior page and you will see today (1-12) is the day it was supposed to be 20 all the way down to the glades.

[NDG]

There might be an Arctic intrusion for the US for the week of the 20th but the same drastic temps that the Euro is showing is not being forecasted to get to FL which makes sense with ensembles showing both NAO & AO going back up positive.
BTW, here's another example of forecasted lows for next Friday of not putting too much stock on drastic forecasted low temps by the models past 5-7 days.

[Patrick99]

This last cold hit, at least for us in SFL, was pretty ordinary for early January. Low in the upper 40s is really nothing special.

And now, as I always say....once you get past the middle of January, the probability of a "memorable" cold snap goes way down. It's not that surprising to me that this latest Arctic blast will only land a glancing punch on the peninsula. The vast majority of the coldest air I've experienced in my life here, has happened between December 15 and January 15. The one memorable exception to that I can think of was early December 2010.

[NDG]

This last cold hit, at least for us in SFL, was pretty ordinary for early January. Low in the upper 40s is really nothing special.

And now, as I always say....once you get past the middle of January, the probability of a "memorable" cold snap goes way down. It's not that surprising to me that this latest Arctic blast will only land a glancing punch on the peninsula. The vast majority of the coldest air I've experienced in my life here, has happened between December 15 and January 15. The one memorable exception to that I can think of was early December 2010.

It was during the middle of the month of December that FL saw the coldest temps that month, December 14 & 15 to be exact and then towards the end of the month but not as low as it was in the middle of December. It still stands as the coldest December on record in FL after record negative values of the NAO & AO during the whole month.

[Abdullah]

For reference, these are the current probabilistic forecasts of the temperature at Miami (KMIA):

Wednesday high:

10th percentile: 61°F
50th percentile: 69°F
90th percentile: 73°F

Thursday morning low:

10th percentile: 40°F
50th percentile: 50°F
90th percentile: 52°F

Thursday high:

10th percentile: 61°F
50th percentile: 65°F
90th percentile: 71°F

Friday morning low:

10th percentile: 42°F
50th percentile: 47°F
90th percentile: 52°F

As of today, any chances of freezing temperatures in South Florida have evaporated, now only being available in Central Florida.

The projected temperatures have raised so far that we may not, in fact, see the coldest temperatures of the winter. Below normal temperatures will begin as soon as the frontal boundary comes in (and now it is projected to be weakening) on Tuesday evening. They will end, though, by Saturday morning, reverting to the average to above normal range they often find themselves in.

Here are the new projections (10th percentile / 50th percentile / 90th percentile):

54°F / 61°F / 66°F - Wednesday morning low
69°F / 72°F / 75°F - Wednesday high
46°F / 56°F / 61°F - Thursday morning low
65°F / 69°F / 73°F - Thursday high
45°F / 53°F / 60°F - Friday morning low
68°F / 70°F / 75°F - Friday morning low

This week likely won't be one to remember. Notably, the Euro is higher on such extreme cold in the 40s as the NWS is.
https://i.imgur.com/mOuVBGr.png

While the Wednesday morning low came in at 59°F, below what was projected initially, new projections by the NWS give a forecast of 62°F and 60°F for the next two days, very average winter days at KMIA. The guidance has significantly warmed!

---

Our next opportunity for cold weather comes next week, as was stated in the forecast discussion released three minutes ago:

An increase in activity arrives on Sunday, as model guidance
continues to bring the broad longwave CONUS trough eastward, and a
frontal system southward into the Southeast and Florida, by daytime
Sunday. With the frontal boundary`s approach, surface low will veer
to the S/SW and the front may be close enough to our area on Sunday
for scattered showers in the Southwestern Florida Peninsula and
north of Alligator Alley. However, at the moment, most rain activity
will keep to the Central Peninsula and a 30-50% chance for isolated
to scattered rain in the southern Peninsula. There will be enough
moisture that light to moderate showers may bring a couple tenths of
rain, most likely to our region`s northern counties (PWATs 1.5-
1.8"). The pressure gradient will remain close, keeping a breezy day
across South Florida with the ensemble guidance in agreement that we
may have gusts up to 20-30KT on Sunday afternoon, especially across
the local waters.

Moving into the new week, model guidance continues to vary, but the
overall trend brings in the potential for N/NW winds ushering in
cooler temperatures (5-10 degrees below norm), as well as another
round of light rainfall. While there is still much uncertainty,
the overall impact of the upcoming arctic surge across the CONUS
does not look like it will make it`s impact across southern FL, or
to the extent expected across SE US and the FL Panhandle.

This bit of uncertainty holds the key to whether or not January 2025 can maintain its holding as being one of the coldest Januaries we have seen in a while.

As of the ending of today, the 15th of January (which had a low of 59 and a high of 75), the average values for December are as follows:

Daily Minimum: 57.9°F (compared to a ten-year mean of 62.3°F, and the closest year was 2019 which had 60.1°F)
Daily Mean: 66.5°F (compared to a ten-year mean of 69.9°F, and the closest year was 2016 which had 67.4°F; this would also be the coldest since the historic 2010 that had 64.1°F)
Daily Maximum: 75.1°F (compared to a ten-year mean of 77.4°F, with only 2016 which had 74.3°F being colder)

Although there haven't been any major cold snaps, consistent cold temperatures have been prevailing in the first half of this month, as 9/15 (60% of) mornings so far saw the thermometer dip below 60. The closest day in the last ten years was 2019 which had 16/31 (52% of) mornings seeing the thermometer dipping below 60.

However, Euro projections do not look promising. According to them, the rest of the month will likely see above-normal temperatures (although there is uncertainty from Tuesday onwards next week, by Saturday we will have a clearer picture):