Texas Winter 2024-2025

[wxman57]

Has the Canadian ever been right? Stupid temps it’s putting out.

Yes, most famously in February 2021.

Canadian is generally terrible for temps, at least in Houston. In the most recent event, it was forecasting 5F in Houston on the morning it was 39F. For the last event, Canadian was coldest (worst) and ICON was second coldest (second worst). Operational Euro and NBM not too bad. I just finished plotting 00Z model forecasts. Once again, CMC is crazy cold (meaning very unlikely) and ICON is second coldest (also unlikely).

I just checked my 2021 spreadsheet and the Canadian, once again, was WAY too cold down here in Houston. Toss it.

Ignore the browser warnings and continue to my images. However, if you view too many of my images you'll start to love July...

https://wxman57.com/images/Models00ZJan14.jpg

[3090]

The accumulations in southern Louisiana on the GFS 06Z forecast map consist almost entirely of sleet. So, the 21 inches of predicted snow is actually about 2 inches of sleet.

Not a nice time, that would be for certain.

[wxman57]

While I tend to not believe that south LA will be buried in sleet and freezing rain next week (6Z GFS), the upper-air pattern of the GFS and Euro are becoming similar. Both indicate temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s next Tue/Wed with a short wave digging into NW TX. That would generate another west Gulf low. Air may be cold enough for snow here in Houston this time.

Temps don't look cold enough that I'd have to shut the water off to the house. We signed a contract for a whole-house generator in early August, with the promise of installation in 4-7 months. It's been 5 months. Six weeks ago, there were 1100 homes ahead of us. I'm figuring they'll get to us by April. Fortunately, my portable generator is repaired and ready to go this time. That's just in case ERCOT has an issue.

[HockeyTx82]

While I tend to not believe that south LA will be buried in sleet and freezing rain next week (6Z GFS), the upper-air pattern of the GFS and Euro are becoming similar. Both indicate temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s next Tue/Wed with a short wave digging into NW TX. That would generate another west Gulf low. Air may be cold enough for snow here in Houston this time.

Temps don't look cold enough that I'd have to shut the water off to the house. We signed a contract for a whole-house generator in early August, with the promise of installation in 4-7 months. It's been 5 months. Six weeks ago, there were 1100 homes ahead of us. I'm figuring they'll get to us by April. Fortunately, my portable generator is repaired and ready to go this time. That's just in case ERCOT has an issue.

Are you seeing any type of chance that this becomes a 2021 type event anywhere in Texas?

[Tireman4]

While I tend to not believe that south LA will be buried in sleet and freezing rain next week (6Z GFS), the upper-air pattern of the GFS and Euro are becoming similar. Both indicate temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s next Tue/Wed with a short wave digging into NW TX. That would generate another west Gulf low. Air may be cold enough for snow here in Houston this time.

Temps don't look cold enough that I'd have to shut the water off to the house. We signed a contract for a whole-house generator in early August, with the promise of installation in 4-7 months. It's been 5 months. Six weeks ago, there were 1100 homes ahead of us. I'm figuring they'll get to us by April. Fortunately, my portable generator is repaired and ready to go this time. That's just in case ERCOT has an issue.

Well, young man, we purchased a whole house generator June 26, 2024. I told the salesman, I will bet you dimes to donuts we will get something before we get it installed. Hello Beryl. We finally got it installed October 16, 2024. It was not officially up and running ( connected to the gas line) until November 22, 2024. I feel your pain.

[Tireman4]

I wish I could post this tweet, but the HGX NWS is stating there is at least a 20 percent chance of some type of frozen P Type next week

Very cold weather is set to arrive in SE Texas early next week with Hard Freeze temperatures and very low wind chill values likely. We are also monitoring the potential for winter precipitation during this period. Stay tunned for updates. #TXwx #HOUwx #Houston

[cstrunk]

A lot of folks in here are going to be waking up happy this morning

6z GFS shows a winter storm developing in TX early next week and then spreading eastward across much of the Southern U.S.

A casual foot and a half for Deep E TX haha.

My people in Longview rejoice.

I’m off to Kansas City. Keep the winter weather runs coming folks!

If this were 2-3 days out that would be perfect, since there always seems to be a NW trend... but since it's a week out it'll probably end up in Kansas.

[Snowman67]

While I tend to not believe that south LA will be buried in sleet and freezing rain next week (6Z GFS), the upper-air pattern of the GFS and Euro are becoming similar. Both indicate temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s next Tue/Wed with a short wave digging into NW TX. That would generate another west Gulf low. Air may be cold enough for snow here in Houston this time.

Temps don't look cold enough that I'd have to shut the water off to the house. We signed a contract for a whole-house generator in early August, with the promise of installation in 4-7 months. It's been 5 months. Six weeks ago, there were 1100 homes ahead of us. I'm figuring they'll get to us by April. Fortunately, my portable generator is repaired and ready to go this time. That's just in case ERCOT has an issue.

When 57 says this, I can't help but get my hopes up a little...

[Ralph's Weather]

A casual foot and a half for Deep E TX haha.

My people in Longview rejoice.

I’m off to Kansas City. Keep the winter weather runs coming folks!

If this were 2-3 days out that would be perfect, since there always seems to be a NW trend... but since it's a week out it'll probably end up in Kansas.

A 1050mb high will suppress the surface low enough that that is unlikely. My biggest question is moisture. I think track will stay south. All depends if a piece of the trough digs SW into MX to supply moisture.

[Ralph's Weather]

I wish I could post this tweet, but the HGX NWS is stating there is at least a 20 percent chance of some type of frozen P Type next week

Very cold weather is set to arrive in SE Texas early next week with Hard Freeze temperatures and very low wind chill values likely. We are also monitoring the potential for winter precipitation during this period. Stay tunned for updates. #TXwx #HOUwx #Houston

SHV is also mentioning the precip threat without including it in the forecast.

[HockeyTx82]

I still have snow on the ground in the shaded areas around my house. Same with areas in the neighborhood. Crazy

[Ralph's Weather]

Just took a glance at current conditions in Angel Fire, NM: -4F and snowing.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville

A strong cold front is expected to pass through Deep South Texas
later Saturday into Sunday, bringing another round of arctic air
into the region. Current guidance is showing that this particular
system is taking on a McFarland shape, which is a notorious
troughing pattern for effectively bringing much colder air to the
Rio Grande Valley, with the potential for freezing low temperatures.
No precipitation is expected with the frontal passage itself, but
rain chances could return early next week in the wake of this cold
front, as another inverted coastal low may develop offshore.

[wxman57]

While I tend to not believe that south LA will be buried in sleet and freezing rain next week (6Z GFS), the upper-air pattern of the GFS and Euro are becoming similar. Both indicate temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s next Tue/Wed with a short wave digging into NW TX. That would generate another west Gulf low. Air may be cold enough for snow here in Houston this time.

Temps don't look cold enough that I'd have to shut the water off to the house. We signed a contract for a whole-house generator in early August, with the promise of installation in 4-7 months. It's been 5 months. Six weeks ago, there were 1100 homes ahead of us. I'm figuring they'll get to us by April. Fortunately, my portable generator is repaired and ready to go this time. That's just in case ERCOT has an issue.

Are you seeing any type of chance that this becomes a 2021 type event anywhere in Texas?

Temperatures don't look nearly as cold as 2021, and the precipitation not as heavy and confined to the southern part of the state where there will be more moisture.

[Ntxw]

0z GEFS. It's been showing a signal for awhile.



As far as the GFS goes the s/w is a fairly new thing.

[orangeblood]

Has the Canadian ever been right? Stupid temps it’s putting out.

Yes, most famously in February 2021.

Canadian is generally terrible for temps, at least in Houston. In the most recent event, it was forecasting 5F in Houston on the morning it was 39F. For the last event, Canadian was coldest (worst) and ICON was second coldest (second worst). Operational Euro and NBM not too bad. I just finished plotting 00Z model forecasts. Once again, CMC is crazy cold (meaning very unlikely) and ICON is second coldest (also unlikely).

I just checked my 2021 spreadsheet and the Canadian, once again, was WAY too cold down here in Houston. Toss it.

Ignore the browser warnings and continue to my images. However, if you view too many of my images you'll start to love July...

https://wxman57.com/images/Models00ZJan14.jpg

https://wxman57.com/images/Models00ZJan14.jpg

The Canadian being too cold for 2021 in Houston may have been the case but for Dallas and comparing it to the other globals, it and the ICON were the better performers by a long shot. Was discussed extensively in that 2021 Winter Thread.

[Rgv20]

While I tend to not believe that south LA will be buried in sleet and freezing rain next week (6Z GFS), the upper-air pattern of the GFS and Euro are becoming similar. Both indicate temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s next Tue/Wed with a short wave digging into NW TX. That would generate another west Gulf low. Air may be cold enough for snow here in Houston this time.

Temps don't look cold enough that I'd have to shut the water off to the house. We signed a contract for a whole-house generator in early August, with the promise of installation in 4-7 months. It's been 5 months. Six weeks ago, there were 1100 homes ahead of us. I'm figuring they'll get to us by April. Fortunately, my portable generator is repaired and ready to go this time. That's just in case ERCOT has an issue.

Are you seeing any type of chance that this becomes a 2021 type event anywhere in Texas?

Temperatures don't look nearly as cold as 2021, and the precipitation not as heavy and confined to the southern part of the state where there will be more moisture.

What are your thoughts on Winter Precipitation for the Rio Grande Valley? More often than not with Arctic Air we have enough moisture just not cold enough

[Portastorm]

I have seen some references to February 2021 when discussing future cold outbreaks. When I have seen them I have thought "I'm not sure everyone understands just how incredible that event was and how unlikely it is we will see something like that in our lifetimes!" In Austin, we had 5-6 days below freezing and 6" of snow and snow drifts several feet high! I know, I lived it and still have the videos.

But truth be told ... and there have been scientific papers written about it ... the depth, duration and scope of the cold in Texas was worse in December 1989 than February 2021. The cold snaps in 1951 and 1983 were very close to that as well.

I guess my perspective on 2021 as well as other Austinites is more severe due to the collapse of our local infrastructure (no water) and the near collapse of the state power grid. Also I have never seen 6" of snow and snow drifts of 2 feet in Austin in my 41 years here until that event. So all of that colors my perception.

Just some random thoughts this morning. If you're interested in reading a paper about comparing the events, here is a good one and the link:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0278

[orangeblood]

Lots of winter weather "noise" from the GFS and Canadian Ensembles for next week. Not so much from the Euro ENS members. However, considering it's been trending towards the GFS 5h pattern, the GEFS seems to have a better handle on the medium range at this point.

GEFS




GEPS

[Gotwood]

Looks like this is going to shake out pretty similar to last January.