Texas Winter 2024-2025

[TomballEd]

18z Euro goes out 144 hours so its just starting to get in range of the system, breaking out a wintry mix across western south texas on monday, system looks a tad deeper at the end of the run as well

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conuswide/z500_anom/1736877600/1737396000-uAunr29kd3E.png

That bears some resemblance to the 'McFarland Signature' people at STX NWS offices mentioned back in the day. I haven't seen it used in a disco in a decade.

[orangeblood]

18z Euro goes out 144 hours so its just starting to get in range of the system, breaking out a wintry mix across western south texas on monday, system looks a tad deeper at the end of the run as well

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conuswide/z500_anom/1736877600/1737396000-uAunr29kd3E.png

That bears some resemblance to the 'McFarland Signature' people at STX NWS offices mentioned back in the day. I haven't seen it used in a disco in a decade.

Really interesting 5h look on the 18Z Euro, Going towards what the Canadian and ICON were showing a few runs ago….that is primed for a really strong winter storm across the south!!

[Throckmorton]

The 12Z GEFS, GEPS, and EPS ensemble means were hardly different from 06Z.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

18z Euro goes out 144 hours so its just starting to get in range of the system, breaking out a wintry mix across western south texas on monday, system looks a tad deeper at the end of the run as well

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conuswide/z500_anom/1736877600/1737396000-uAunr29kd3E.png

That bears some resemblance to the 'McFarland Signature' people at STX NWS offices mentioned back in the day. I haven't seen it used in a disco in a decade.

Yep. The NWS Brownsville guys back in the day would mention McFarland and we’d get hit with devastating agricultural freezes soon after.

[orangeblood]

The 12Z GEFS, GEPS, and EPS ensemble means were hardly different from 06Z.

18Z EPS is now going towards its OP and the GEPS, GEFS outlier

[gpsnowman]

Enjoy the relatively mild conditions for the next several days (especially Friday!) because several surges of cold air will push through north Texas sending us back to the dead of winter.

Saturday won't be too bad with highs still in the 40s, but another surge of cold air moves in dropping us into the 30s for Sunday. Then we stay in the 20s and 30s for highs for the first half of next week after climbing out of the teens and low 20s in the mornings.

It will be a struggle to get to freezing by Tuesday even in the heat island of the Metroplex! Brrr...

Although we could see some snow with this cold air surge, it is unlikely to be heavy. But since the cold air will be so deep, at least we will not have to decide if the precip will be rain, freezing rain, or sleet. It will definitiely be snow if we have anything at all.

Stay tuned...

Latest from Steve McCauley

[3090]

Austin to Waco bullseye on this run of the GFS. Some in Houston, mixing in S-Texas turns to snow. Southern storm dominant, dry up north.

Southern Louisiana appears it will take a big hit.

[cajungal]

Austin to Waco bullseye on this run of the GFS. Some in Houston, mixing in S-Texas turns to snow. Southern storm dominant, dry up north.

Southern Louisiana appears it will take a big hit.

Told you last week it is now our time to shine and show off

[JSDS]

As long as we don’t shine and show off with ice! I’d love some snow, but I’m afraid we might get more ice than snow.

[Throckmorton]

GFS operational's 18Z run is much warmer for Austin, although it still forecasts about 5 inches of snow on Tuesday.

=====

The European ECMWF model's forecast for Austin Camp Mabry beginning January 18th {Jan. 14th, 12Z run):

58–42...Saturday, 1/18
43–31...Sunday
32–26...Monday (snow; 0.6 inches)
25–22...Tuesday (snow; 2.8 new inches)
30–22...Wednesday (snow; 0.3 new inches)
36–23...Thursday
43–25...Friday
46–28...Saturday, 1/25
67–43...Sunday

=====

The American GFS model's snowy forecast for Austin Camp Mabry beginning January 18th {Jan. 14th, 18Z run):

63–43...Saturday, 1/18
45–33...Sunday
49–31...Monday
37–27...Tuesday (snow; 4.8 inches)
31–27...Wednesday
46–27...Thursday
49–38...Friday
58–38...Saturday, 1/25

=====

The Canadian GEM model's forecast for Austin Camp Mabry beginning January 18th {Jan. 14th, 12Z run):

62–41...Saturday, 1/18
35–21...Sunday
31–15...Monday
26–19...Tuesday
26–21...Wednesday (snow changing to freezing
..............rain; 0.4 inches of snow & 0.08 inches of
.............ice)
34–25...Thursday, 1/23 (freezing rain, then rain)
..............(0.04 inches of ice)

=====

The German ICON model's forecast for Austin Camp Mabry beginning January 18th {Jan. 14th, 12Z run):

57–38...Saturday, 1/18
35–22...Sunday
33–16...Monday
32–23...Tuesday, 1/21 (model run ends at 6 pm CST)

[Throckmorton]

Enjoy the relatively mild conditions for the next several days (especially Friday!) because several surges of cold air will push through north Texas sending us back to the dead of winter.

Saturday won't be too bad with highs still in the 40s, but another surge of cold air moves in dropping us into the 30s for Sunday. Then we stay in the 20s and 30s for highs for the first half of next week after climbing out of the teens and low 20s in the mornings.

It will be a struggle to get to freezing by Tuesday even in the heat island of the Metroplex! Brrr...

Although we could see some snow with this cold air surge, it is unlikely to be heavy. But since the cold air will be so deep, at least we will not have to decide if the precip will be rain, freezing rain, or sleet. It will definitiely be snow if we have anything at all.

Stay tuned...

Latest from Steve McCauley

He must not like the GFS 18Z run, which is much warmer.

[orangeblood]

GFS operational's 18Z run is much warmer for Austin, although it still forecasts about 5 inches of snow on Tuesday. Low temps each day don't drop below 27°. Near 60° for a high the following Sunday.

Also, the GEM operational no longer forecasts temps below 15° for Austin ECMWF bottoms out at 22°, and ICON goes no colder than 16°.

Low of 27F with a 1050 Arctic High parked over the southern plains….that model has no clue how to handle an airmass like this at this range

[Throckmorton]

GFS operational's 18Z run is much warmer for Austin, although it still forecasts about 5 inches of snow on Tuesday. Low temps each day don't drop below 27°. Near 60° for a high the following Sunday.

Also, the GEM operational no longer forecasts temps below 15° for Austin ECMWF bottoms out at 22°, and ICON goes no colder than 16°.

Low of 27F with a 1050 Arctic High parked over the southern plains….that model has no clue how to handle an airmass like this at this range

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/scentus/mslp/1736877600/1737482400-a7EFmofadYU.png

Sorry, all of these models are clueless?

[txtwister78]

GFS operational's 18Z run is much warmer for Austin, although it still forecasts about 5 inches of snow on Tuesday. Low temps each day don't drop below 27°. Near 60° for a high the following Sunday.

Also, the GEM operational no longer forecasts temps below 15° for Austin ECMWF bottoms out at 22°, and ICON goes no colder than 16°.

Low of 27F with a 1050 Arctic High parked over the southern plains….that model has no clue how to handle an airmass like this at this range

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/scentus/mslp/1736877600/1737482400-a7EFmofadYU.png

Sorry, all of these models are clueless?

Must be that darn "Canadian warming" again.

[orangeblood]

GFS operational's 18Z run is much warmer for Austin, although it still forecasts about 5 inches of snow on Tuesday. Low temps each day don't drop below 27°. Near 60° for a high the following Sunday.

Also, the GEM operational no longer forecasts temps below 15° for Austin ECMWF bottoms out at 22°, and ICON goes no colder than 16°.

Low of 27F with a 1050 Arctic High parked over the southern plains….that model has no clue how to handle an airmass like this at this range

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/scentus/mslp/1736877600/1737482400-a7EFmofadYU.png

Sorry, all of these models are clueless?

In these setups most have a very difficult time at the surface ….it’s well documented on this forum in past seasons if you choose to take a look

[Stratton23]

If you have fresh snow on the ground with a 1050 mb high over the central plains, you can easily take off 10-15 degrees on that 27 that the GFS is showing in austin, globals models always fail with seeing the true density of these cold air masses

[txtwister78]

As we've all discussed before during previous arctic outbreaks, models do have a tendency to underestimate the impact of arctic air further south so wouldn't surprise me at all to see temps trend colder as we move closer to the weekend.

[Throckmorton]

If you have fresh snow on the ground with a 1050 mb high over the central plains, you can easily take off 10-15 degrees on that 27 that the GFS is showing in austin, globals models always fail with seeing the true density of these cold air masses

Models are built to handle forecasts for snow–covered areas.

[Throckmorton]

As we've all discussed before during previous arctic outbreaks, models do have a tendency to underestimate the impact of arctic air further south so wouldn't surprise me at all to see temps trend colder as we move closer to the weekend.

Perhaps. But both the ensembles and the operationals moved the other way today – even GEM.

[fendie]

If you have fresh snow on the ground with a 1050 mb high over the central plains, you can easily take off 10-15 degrees on that 27 that the GFS is showing in austin, globals models always fail with seeing the true density of these cold air masses

Models are built to handle forecasts for snow–covered areas.

Pretty much every winter we have a strong cold front like this one that the models are a tad slow with and 5-10 degrees too warm with (except the Canadian which is often 5-10 degrees too cold). Snow cover or not these events only happen a couple times a year and the models struggle with them every time. Take a look at the archives here for countless examples.