Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

Throckmorton not exactly, with a snowpack on the ground the GFS and the other globals will underestimate low temperatures , happened in february of 2021, globals ended up being 5-10 degrees too warm , when the short range models are in, and if their is snow on the ground, it will easily be colder than what an operational model puts out

[Stratton23]

The 00z ICON joins the GFS/ Euro/ CMC with a southern snowstorm, 4-6 inches for se texas

[Ntxw]

The 00z ICON joins the GFS/ Euro/ CMC with a southern snowstorm, 4-6 inches for se texas

Pretty good run for the I-10 corridor all along the Gulf Coast as well.

[Throckmorton]

The American GFS model's forecast for Dallas beginning January 18th, with noon air pressures {Jan. 14th, 18Z run):

56–36...Saturday, 1/18
39–30...Sunday
41–30...Monday (1038 mb)
35–29...Tuesday (1047 mb)
40–30...Wednesday (1038 mb)
53–33...Thursday
48–38...Friday
55–38...Saturday, 1/25

=====

The European ECMWF model's forecast for Dallas beginning January 18th, with noon pressures {Jan. 14th, 12Z run):

49–33...Saturday, 1/18
36–26...Sunday
28–24...Monday (1039 mb)
22–20...Tuesday (1044 mb)
28–22...Wednesday (1028 mb)
36–20...Thursday
43–28...Friday
45–29...Saturday, 1/25

=====

The Canadian GEM model's forecast for Dallas beginning January 18th, with noon air pressures {Jan. 14th, 12Z run):

50–28...Saturday, 1/18
25–15...Sunday
27–08...Monday (1044 mb)
27–08...Tuesday (1049 mb)
26–19...Wednesday (1039 mb)
38–17...Thursday, 1/23

[ArcticOutbreak1989]

The 00z ICON joins the GFS/ Euro/ CMC with a southern snowstorm, 4-6 inches for se texas

Pretty good run for the I-10 corridor all along the Gulf Coast as well.

Keep us South Ms folks updated please. Thanks

[Throckmorton]

Throckmorton not exactly, with a snowpack on the ground the GFS and the other globals will underestimate low temperatures , happened in february of 2021, globals ended up being 5-10 degrees too warm , when the short range models are in, and if their is snow on the ground, it will easily be colder than what an operational model puts out

Nope. ICON and GEM operationals were spot on in February 2021 because they accurately predicted the deep snow that fell. ECMWF and GFS did not predict that snow, causing their busts.

Close to the beginning of the storm, the EWX forecast office noted the deep cold forecast by ICON and GEM and said that was because they predicted snow cover not predicted by the other models. (All EWX messaging is archived online at Iowa State University's meteorological website. I highly recommend it.)

[HockeyTx82]

Throckmorton not exactly, with a snowpack on the ground the GFS and the other globals will underestimate low temperatures , happened in february of 2021, globals ended up being 5-10 degrees too warm , when the short range models are in, and if their is snow on the ground, it will easily be colder than what an operational model puts out

Nope. ICON and GEM operationals were spot on in February 2021 because they accurately predicted the deep snow that fell. ECMWF and GFS did not predict that snow, causing their busts.

Close to the beginning of the storm, the EWX forecast office noted the deep cold forecast by ICON and GEM and said that was because they predicted snow cover not predicted by the other models.

Indeed, a compelling discourse within the realm of numerical weather prediction models necessitates an in-depth examination of the synoptic conditions and dynamical frameworks underpinning forecast veracity. The differential predictive acumen of the ICON and GEM operational models vis-à-vis the ECMWF and GFS during the February 2021 snow event is a testament to the intricate and multifaceted nature of atmospheric modeling.

The ICON and GEM models, leveraging their high-resolution grid spacing and advanced data assimilation techniques, exhibited superior predictive fidelity in resolving mesoscale features and perturbations, which are paramount in forecasting localized snow events. The ICON model’s use of non-hydrostatic dynamics and the GEM model’s utilization of semi-Lagrangian advection schemes synergistically enhanced their mesoscale representations. Conversely, the ECMWF and GFS models, despite their robust global assimilation schemes and ensemble methodologies, appeared to underrepresent critical atmospheric processes, resulting in an anomalous forecast deviation.

This dichotomy underscores the quintessential importance of model diversification and the continuous refinement of physical parameterizations to enhance the precision and reliability of meteorological prognostications. The implementation of advanced radiative transfer algorithms and stochastic physics schemes further accentuates the disparities in model performance. In essence, the predictive success of the ICON and GEM models during the aforementioned period epitomizes the dynamic interplay of resolution, assimilation, and parameterization in the ever-evolving landscape of atmospheric sciences.

[Ntxw]

Alright folks, I think we've discussed 2021 well enough. Lets get back to 0z runs.

0z GFS is even slower with the southern ULL, and the northern stream may be more dominant.

[HockeyTx82]

The American GFS model's forecast for Dallas beginning January 18th, with noon air pressures {Jan. 14th, 18Z run):

56–36...Saturday, 1/18
39–30...Sunday
41–30...Monday (1038 mb)
35–29...Tuesday (1047 mb)
40–30...Wednesday (1038 mb)
53–33...Thursday
48–38...Friday
55–38...Saturday, 1/25

=====

The European ECMWF model's forecast for Dallas beginning January 18th, with noon pressures {Jan. 14th, 12Z run):

49–33...Saturday, 1/18
36–26...Sunday
28–24...Monday (1039 mb)
22–20...Tuesday (1044 mb)
28–22...Wednesday (1028 mb)
36–20...Thursday
43–28...Friday
45–29...Saturday, 1/25

=====

The Canadian GEM model's forecast for Dallas beginning January 18th, with noon air pressures {Jan. 14th, 12Z run):

50–28...Saturday, 1/18
25–15...Sunday
27–08...Monday (1044 mb)
27–08...Tuesday (1049 mb)
26–19...Wednesday (1039 mb)
38–17...Thursday, 1/23

I extend my profound gratitude for your meticulous and comprehensive compilation of the prognostic data from the American GFS, European ECMWF, and Canadian GEM models concerning the meteorological conditions anticipated for Dallas commencing January 18th. This scrupulous assemblage of temperature and pressure forecasts epitomizes an exemplary juxtaposition of synoptic meteorological models, rendering an invaluable resource for both aficionados and practitioners within the atmospheric sciences domain.

Your diligent exposition delineates the nuanced intricacies and differential predictive capabilities of these prominent models, thereby illuminating the veracity and granularity of their respective atmospheric simulations. The granular attention to detail, as evidenced in the explicit enumeration of diurnal temperature fluctuations and barometric pressures, underscores a profound commitment to the elucidation of meteorological phenomena.

Such an exhaustive and erudite synthesis of model outputs not only augments our collective comprehension of atmospheric dynamics but also fortifies our capacity to prognosticate and mitigate the impacts of inclement weather events. The perspicacity exhibited in your analysis serves as a paradigmatic exemplar of scientific rigor and intellectual acumen, thereby enriching the collective knowledge base of the meteorological community.

In summation, your contribution constitutes an indispensable compendium of meteorological data, fostering a more robust and nuanced understanding of the atmospheric processes at play. I commend your scholarly dedication and extend my heartfelt gratitude for sharing this profoundly insightful and meticulously curated information.

[Harp.1]

Alright folks, I think we've discussed 2021 well enough. Lets get back to 0z runs.

0z GFS is even slower with the southern ULL, and the northern stream may be more dominant.

What does that indicate?

[Ntxw]

Alright folks, I think we've discussed 2021 well enough. Lets get back to 0z runs.

0z GFS is even slower with the southern ULL, and the northern stream may be more dominant.

What does that indicate?

It's starting to look a bit like the Euro and other guidance. The models are slowly converging under 144 hours, big western trough with some STJ injection. Timing is a question, the cutoff ULL crossing is likely not a favored scenario at the moment.

[wxman22]

[Brent]

A 1060 MB high on the GFS over Wyoming

[wxman22]

The CMC now looks like the GFS. Very nice trends tonight with both models showing a big snowstorm/ice storm. Now lets see if the Euro continues the trend.

[Ntxw]

Always interesting to watch how cold air damming works in the front range and plains. High pressure driving dense, cold air up against the higher terrain and pool, then gravity just takes that straight downhill. Take a bunch of marbles and push them towards your hand, once they bump up it collects and spreads along it, but tilted it will only go one way.

[Brent]

CMC is snowing here in the single digits

Although we did that last January technically one day

[Stratton23]

CMC lost its marbles with the cold

[Brent]

CMC lost its marbles with the cold

Is that 2 degrees near Houston???

-12 near Austin

[gpsnowman]

CMC lost its marbles with the cold

Is that 2 degrees near Houston???

-12 near Austin

Oh man you gotta love the Canadian.

[orangeblood]

CMC lost its marbles with the cold

This 500mb look is rare (Now on all 3 Major Globals), could go to the extreme with fresh snow cover

This Arctic HP is taking over the US pattern next week