Texas Winter 2024-2025

[3090]

Quiet this morning in here…

[Nederlander]

NWS Houston/Galveston

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 433 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

High pressure continues eastward on Friday, with southeasterly flow
bringing WAA and moisture advection. This warms up highs into the
60s/lower 70s on Friday with temperatures for Friday night in the
40s/50s. Rising moisture will introduce rain chances Friday
evening/overnight, but by in large Friday will be a benign and
pleasant day, at least compared to what`s coming...

A shortwave over the Southern Plains will push a strong cold front
through SE Texas on Saturday. Timing with this front remains the
same, entering the Brazos Valley early Saturday morning then pushing
off the coast by the afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms will be
possible along/ahead of the front, with gusty north/northeast winds
developing in it`s wake. Cold air filters in behind this system,
with lows temperatures for Sunday morning currently forecasted to be
in the upper 20s/30s inland and lower 40s along the coast. Wind
Chill will put apparent temperatures in the upper teens/upper 20s
inland and lower 30s near the coast early that morning.

While we`ll warm above freezing during the day (highs in the 40s
area-wide), a deep upper level low over the Hudson Bay (Canada) will
push a strong 1050mb surface high into the Northern PLains/Great
Basin on Sunday. This frigid arctic airmass will fill in across the
much of the CONUS overnight into next week, bringing even colder
conditions to SE Texas. Low temperatures for Monday & Tuesday
morning are currently forecasted to be in the 20s inland to lower
30s along the coast. Hard Freeze conditions (Temps 24 or lower) will
be possible in areas north of I-10, and especially so across the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area, where NBM probabilities show high
confidence (70-90% chance) for reaching Hard Freeze temperatures.
Wind Chill temperatures are forecasted to be in the 20s to lower
teens. LREF ensemble probabilities still suggest that there is a low
to medium (35%) chance of Wind chills hitting single digits over the
far northern reaches of our CWA early Tuesday morning. Uncertainty
grows beyond the 7 day forecast, though at present we may have to
wait till the second half of the week to see temperatures warm up
again.

With these cold conditions comes the question of winter
precipitation, and it appears as though the conditions are looking
favorable for it`s development. A coastal trough is still progged to
form near the Deep S Texas/Mexico coastline on Monday, providing
influx of moisture across the Texas coastal bend. Pacific moisture
filling in aloft, 700-850mb frontogenesis and a shortwave trough
passing over Texas will provide the necessary components for
precipitation. LREF, GFS and ECMWF ensembles all show a more
distinct clustering of QPF beginning on Monday, providing higher
confidence in precipitation. Compared to yesterday, guidance does
appear a tad warmer aloft, with ensemble means showing 500mb
temperatures in the range of -14 to -19. Dynamic Ensemble Soundings
still keep most of the temperature profile below zero, though the
upper end of the IQR has shifted above the freezing mark.
Deterministic soundings still shows signs of seeder-feeder processes
occuring, but also feature a stronger warm nose aloft.

The main takeaway is that we now have medium to high confidence (40-
50% chance) that wintry precipitation will occur over southeast
Texas during the first half of next week. All winter precipitation
types are still on the table right now, but broadly speaking
guidance and the NBM seem to still favor snow as the dominant precip
type. Areas north of the I-10 are more likely to see snow/mix of
sleet. Areas to the south may see a mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain
and potentially liquid rain right along the barrier
islands/nearshore waters. As for how much snow/sleet/ice,
uncertainty is too high to put a specific amount on it just yet.
Broadly speaking, it`s more snow to the north and more ice to the
south. We`ll have a better idea of "how much" over the next few
days, but for now we should prepare for some accumulating winter
precipitation.

&&

[wxman57]

The low would have to reach the upper teens to lower 20s if we're talking above-freezing by noon. If the temperature would be 30F or lower for 24 hours, I'd shut it off. Our pipes are in the attic and they're not extremely well insulated. Temperature in the attic may be a degree or two warmer than outside air, though.

Why not just drip all faucets instead?

Do you have any thoughts or experience with new builds in relation to outside temperatures in extremes? On our home, which is foam, it appears that the attic temperature is around 10 degrees warmer or cooler, but I wonder how it performs in extreme conditions.

I don't know much about new builds. I do know that the attic should be vented (ridge and continuous soffit vents) such that the air in the attic matches the outside air.

[opticsguy]

Why not just drip all faucets instead?

Do you have any thoughts or experience with new builds in relation to outside temperatures in extremes? On our home, which is foam, it appears that the attic temperature is around 10 degrees warmer or cooler, but I wonder how it performs in extreme conditions.

I don't know much about new builds. I do know that the attic should be vented (ridge and continuous soffit vents) such that the air in the attic matches the outside air.

New builds with PEX pipes in the attic instead of the slab have a tendency to freeze if they lie above the insulation. In our neighborhood the pipes lie against the sheathing on the cold side of the wall insulation. In 2021 they froze even our dripping faucet and the toilet (how do you drip a toilet? ). Being PEX the freeze didn't damage anything.

[wxman57]

Yeah I'm just going to say no to this but just seeing it on a model in Texas is crazy enough (yes those are windchills). Thankfully a big outlier

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/apparent_temperature_f/1736899200/1737633600-KCoNUwOVanA.png

Please let this come true. I will film myself running in it to show that Wxman 57 is a pansy for the cold.

I was skiing in Winter Park, CO during the 1989 Arctic outbreak. Got up the first morning and the thermometer said -42F! When we started skiing, the temperature was about -20F. At noon, we stopped mid-mountain for lunch and sat outside. Temperature was up to 10F. No ice needed for my drink. I've seen cold and snow. My main concern is the pipes freezing next Tue-Wed.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yeah I'm just going to say no to this but just seeing it on a model in Texas is crazy enough (yes those are windchills). Thankfully a big outlier

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/apparent_temperature_f/1736899200/1737633600-KCoNUwOVanA.png

Please let this come true. I will film myself running in it to show that Wxman 57 is a pansy for the cold.

I was skiing in Winter Park, CO during the 1989 Arctic outbreak. Got up the first morning and the thermometer said -42F! When we started skiing, the temperature was about -20F. At noon, we stopped mid-mountain for lunch and sat outside. Temperature was up to 10F. No ice needed for my drink. I've seen cold and snow. My main concern is the pipes freezing next Tue-Wed.

That’s my kind of skiing weather!

[TomballEd]

Even with the tendency of global models to under forecast shallow dense airmasses, if the NTX winter storm and how the models looked a week before is any guide, I think we're awfully iffy in Harris County for significant winter weather and I think sleet/freezing rain is the dominant precip if there is winter precip.

About 10 years ago there was an ice storm where the calcium chloride brine treated bridges and overpasses (it not only lowers freezing point, it is exothermic when it absorbs water) still froze over because the rain showers before temps hit freezing washed the brine off the elevated surfaces. A few hundredths of ice is nothing to look at, but could still turn MLK weekend into a 4 day school holiday. I'm just not sold on any snow accumulating. Although enough sleet,it sort of looks like it snowed. My trial at giphy ended, I'll have to pay to post model images here/

[HockeyTx82]

Even with the tendency of global models to under forecast shallow dense airmasses, if the NTX winter storm and how the models looked a week before is any guide, I think we're awfully iffy in Harris County for significant winter weather and I think sleet/freezing rain is the dominant precip if there is winter precip.

About 10 years ago there was an ice storm where the calcium chloride brine treated bridges and overpasses (it not only lowers freezing point, it is exothermic when it absorbs water) still froze over because the rain showers before temps hit freezing washed the brine off the elevated surfaces. A few hundredths of ice is nothing to look at, but could still turn MLK weekend into a 4 day school holiday. I'm just not sold on any snow accumulating. Although enough sleet,it sort of looks like it snowed. My trial at giphy ended, I'll have to pay to post model images here/

I think if you have a One Drive or Google Drive you can share a direct link to an image to embedded it. I want to see I did it once.

[TomballEd]

Please let this come true. I will film myself running in it to show that Wxman 57 is a pansy for the cold.

I was skiing in Winter Park, CO during the 1989 Arctic outbreak. Got up the first morning and the thermometer said -42F! When we started skiing, the temperature was about -20F. At noon, we stopped mid-mountain for lunch and sat outside. Temperature was up to 10F. No ice needed for my drink. I've seen cold and snow. My main concern is the pipes freezing next Tue-Wed.

That’s my kind of skiing weather!

I delivered the NY Daily News in Winter 76/77 when the Great South Bay froze. I delivered Sunday papers by hand if there was snow on the ground. I handled sub-zero cold (it seemed never to be windy when it was that cold, thanks goodness) like a champ.

That was almost 50 years ago and I have lost my cold tolerance. Even this morning was too cold for me. On pipes, 2021, wrapped outdoors, every sink dribbling and boiled pots of water on the stove when the electricity was down, and nothing burst. I'm more worried about the small palm trees transplanted from near the base of the big palm tree. The big one looked dead for several weeks, but came back. 2021, it came home ~3 feet, pushing 30 feet now. Tall enough to be a lightning target, but one worry at a time.

[AubreyStorm]

Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow!

(Next week)
The Weather Channel with snow on Tuesday and Friday!

[Quixotic]

Shades of 1977-78?

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville

A cold front with air derived from the arctic will arrive on
Saturday and we will have a McFarland clone (referring to the
classic 1976 paper by M.J. McFarland describing a synoptic setup
that produces unusually cold weather for deep South Texas). Once a
cold front moves through, the mid-level trough axis from Hudson
Bay southwest across the United States with a north-south blocking
ridge to the west allows very cold air to plummet south through
nothing but barbed wire fencing over the Plains. The resulting
"signature" is often present when extreme cold devastates local
agriculture, especially when that industry was of major
importance.

Temperatures will "free-fall" starting Saturday night creating a
winter weather threat that will persists through much of the
week. Though initially dry, cold air nosing south into the CWA
will dance with warmer and moister marine air to set up a
deepening coastal trough. That will enhance rain chances and, when
combined with the colder temperatures which are expected to reach
a nadir Wednesday and Thursday, will up the chances for pockets
of wintry precip.

Used an NBM baseline for the forecast, realizing that there is
still a lot of uncertainty. Some of the models (like the NAM)
handle the colder temps better, and those have yet to come into
prime range. For now, the ECMWF and the NBM50 seem to be tracking
well. A bit concerning is that the lower end NBM probabilities (25
and 10 percent) which might be considered reasonable worst case
scenarios, take temps well below freezing for the coldest
nights/mornings. For now, however, we are looking at freezing
temps (around 32 degrees) for the Ranchlands Monday morning, a
light freeze across the northern tier and Starr Counties Tuesday
morning, and a light (possible hard) freeze for that same area
Wednesday morning along with a light freeze reaching Hidalgo,
Willacy, and northern Cameron Counties.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah I'm just going to say no to this but just seeing it on a model in Texas is crazy enough (yes those are windchills). Thankfully a big outlier

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/apparent_temperature_f/1736899200/1737633600-KCoNUwOVanA.png

Please let this come true. I will film myself running in it to show that Wxman 57 is a pansy for the cold.

I was skiing in Winter Park, CO during the 1989 Arctic outbreak. Got up the first morning and the thermometer said -42F! When we started skiing, the temperature was about -20F. At noon, we stopped mid-mountain for lunch and sat outside. Temperature was up to 10F. No ice needed for my drink. I've seen cold and snow. My main concern is the pipes freezing next Tue-Wed.

1989 in Houston made me a weather nut. Also helped that I was in Denver for the 1990 Arctic blast. I think Denver hit -25 or -29 that weekend.

[DallasAg]

Do you have any thoughts or experience with new builds in relation to outside temperatures in extremes? On our home, which is foam, it appears that the attic temperature is around 10 degrees warmer or cooler, but I wonder how it performs in extreme conditions.

I don't know much about new builds. I do know that the attic should be vented (ridge and continuous soffit vents) such that the air in the attic matches the outside air.

New builds with PEX pipes in the attic instead of the slab have a tendency to freeze if they lie above the insulation. In our neighborhood the pipes lie against the sheathing on the cold side of the wall insulation. In 2021 they froze even our dripping faucet and the toilet (how do you drip a toilet? ). Being PEX the freeze didn't damage anything.

Same here. PEX pipes still froze, but we didn't stress over it because we knew they wouldn't burst. We MacGyvered a solution with a space heater and flexible ducts to infuse some warm air into the crawl space to warm the PEX enough to thaw it.

Pro tip we learned on "dripping a toilet". Put a very thin washer on the flange where it connects to the drain, so that a little water is constantly going down the drain and triggering the fill mechanism to put water in the back bowl. It doesn't have to be a lot, even a steady drip going down the drain will do the trick. The only catch is if your toilet is close to your bed you'll have to deal with listening to it drip and then fill all night.

[Tireman4]

From Jeff


Strong arctic cold front will arrive late this weekend.
Increasing chances for both widespread freezes and winter precipitation over the region next week.
Coastal trough today will move eastward tonight with a cool cloudy and damp day in place before a warm up on Thursday and Friday…enjoy that…because is ends Saturday and we will be in the icebox much of next week. With clear skies temperatures Thursday will reach near 60 and near 70 on Friday with increasing moisture ahead of the first push of colder air that will arrive over the area on Saturday. This first front will be similar to what we saw last we with gusty northerly winds and temperatures falling into the 40’s and 50’s behind the boundary. Temperatures Sunday AM in the 30’s for much of the area with a freeze likely north of the metro with north winds of 10-20mph under clear to partly cloudy skies.
Large and sprawling 1050mb+ arctic high then drops into the northern and central plains late on Sunday and rapidly pushes an arctic cold front through the area…temperatures will tumble from there already cool levels even more with nearly all of the area below freezing by Monday AM and when combined with strong northerly winds wind chills will fall into the 10’s and low 20’s for much of the area. A cold weather advisory is almost certainly going to be needed. Temperatures will only recover into the 30’s/low 40’s for highs on Monday. Hard freezes become possible Tuesday AM (along and north of I-10) with freezing conditions likely down to near the coast. Similar if not slightly colder conditions will be in place for next Wednesday AM…but this is getting pretty far out and has some dependence on how much and what kind of precipitation falls. Given such a strong surface high pressure cell moving down the plains…it is possible that temperatures trend downward some over the next few days.
Proper winterization preparations will be needed for this cold air outbreak and will need to be completed by this weekend. Failure to conduct proper winterization efforts will likely result in damage to sensitive infrastructure.
Protect sensitive vegetation (survival of sensitive/tropical vegetation is unlikely).
Protect any exposed outdoor pipes (sprinkler systems should be shut off and properly drained). Even some interior and protected pipes could have some concerns with this cold.
Prepare proper shelter and warmth for animals and livestock and make sure water sources do not freeze over.
Persons should limit outside exposure to a minimum.
Winter Precipitation:
Guidance continues to indicate a mid level trough moving across Texas forcing a coastal low similar to last week…the big difference is that temperatures both at the surface and aloft are about 10 degrees colder with this upcoming event which will introduce a mixture of precipitation types (P-type) across the region. While still several days away…confidence and consistency in the guidance is increasing that some sort of impactful winter storm will occur across SE TX starting as early as Monday afternoon/evening and lasting into Wednesday. Forecasted soundings on the global models show a higher potential for snow/sleet the further north over the area (say north of I-10) with a mixture of freezing rain and sleet to the south. The National Blend of Models (NBM) is trending toward more snow than ice for what that is worth at this range. Given surface temperatures below freezing and possibly well below freezing accumulations of ice/snow look possible (how much and what kind of impacts) will be determined in the coming days.

[Portastorm]

NWS Brownsville

A cold front with air derived from the arctic will arrive on
Saturday and we will have a McFarland clone (referring to the
classic 1976 paper by M.J. McFarland describing a synoptic setup
that produces unusually cold weather for deep South Texas). Once a
cold front moves through, the mid-level trough axis from Hudson
Bay southwest across the United States with a north-south blocking
ridge to the west allows very cold air to plummet south through
nothing but barbed wire fencing over the Plains. The resulting
"signature" is often present when extreme cold devastates local
agriculture, especially when that industry was of major
importance.

Temperatures will "free-fall" starting Saturday night creating a
winter weather threat that will persists through much of the
week. Though initially dry, cold air nosing south into the CWA
will dance with warmer and moister marine air to set up a
deepening coastal trough. That will enhance rain chances and, when
combined with the colder temperatures which are expected to reach
a nadir Wednesday and Thursday, will up the chances for pockets
of wintry precip.

Used an NBM baseline for the forecast, realizing that there is
still a lot of uncertainty. Some of the models (like the NAM)
handle the colder temps better, and those have yet to come into
prime range. For now, the ECMWF and the NBM50 seem to be tracking
well. A bit concerning is that the lower end NBM probabilities (25
and 10 percent) which might be considered reasonable worst case
scenarios, take temps well below freezing for the coldest
nights/mornings. For now, however, we are looking at freezing
temps (around 32 degrees) for the Ranchlands Monday morning, a
light freeze across the northern tier and Starr Counties Tuesday
morning, and a light (possible hard) freeze for that same area
Wednesday morning along with a light freeze reaching Hidalgo,
Willacy, and northern Cameron Counties.

For us old-timers, the phrase "McFarland Signature" is an attention-getter! As some of you wrote about yesterday, once the NWS Brownsville office used that phrase, you knew that a heckuva cold blast was coming down into Texas. So to see reference to this again certainly raises a few eyebrows. Reference to that phrase also meant that it wouldn't be a one-day-and-done kind of thing but a more prolonged cold snap.

IMO the globals won't latch on well to the temps for next week until this weekend. We know what's coming per the ensembles and the general pattern set up. Now it's time to fine tune the temps and precip chances.

[wxman57]

I love that Canadian model. It has 2F for Houston next Thursday and -2F for Lake Charles. It's about 30F colder than the other models. Last week, this far out, it predicted 4F for Houston last Saturday but the low was 39F. Canadian is generally fun to look at (and laugh at).

[TropicalTundra]

I love that Canadian model. It has 2F for Houston next Thursday and -2F for Lake Charles. It's about 30F colder than the other models. Last week, this far out, it predicted 4F for Houston last Saturday but the low was 39F. Canadian is generally fun to look at (and laugh at).

The 0z run gets the Brazos area to -14 next Thursday. Might be the most unsettling and out of place thing I've ever seen lol.

[Tireman4]

NWS Brownsville

A cold front with air derived from the arctic will arrive on
Saturday and we will have a McFarland clone (referring to the
classic 1976 paper by M.J. McFarland describing a synoptic setup
that produces unusually cold weather for deep South Texas). Once a
cold front moves through, the mid-level trough axis from Hudson
Bay southwest across the United States with a north-south blocking
ridge to the west allows very cold air to plummet south through
nothing but barbed wire fencing over the Plains. The resulting
"signature" is often present when extreme cold devastates local
agriculture, especially when that industry was of major
importance.

Temperatures will "free-fall" starting Saturday night creating a
winter weather threat that will persists through much of the
week. Though initially dry, cold air nosing south into the CWA
will dance with warmer and moister marine air to set up a
deepening coastal trough. That will enhance rain chances and, when
combined with the colder temperatures which are expected to reach
a nadir Wednesday and Thursday, will up the chances for pockets
of wintry precip.

Used an NBM baseline for the forecast, realizing that there is
still a lot of uncertainty. Some of the models (like the NAM)
handle the colder temps better, and those have yet to come into
prime range. For now, the ECMWF and the NBM50 seem to be tracking
well. A bit concerning is that the lower end NBM probabilities (25
and 10 percent) which might be considered reasonable worst case
scenarios, take temps well below freezing for the coldest
nights/mornings. For now, however, we are looking at freezing
temps (around 32 degrees) for the Ranchlands Monday morning, a
light freeze across the northern tier and Starr Counties Tuesday
morning, and a light (possible hard) freeze for that same area
Wednesday morning along with a light freeze reaching Hidalgo,
Willacy, and northern Cameron Counties.

For us old-timers, the phrase "McFarland Signature" is an attention-getter! As some of you wrote about yesterday, once the NWS Brownsville office used that phrase, you knew that a heckuva cold blast was coming down into Texas. So to see reference to this again certainly raises a few eyebrows. Reference to that phrase also meant that it wouldn't be a one-day-and-done kind of thing but a more prolonged cold snap.

IMO the globals won't latch on well to the temps for next week until this weekend. We know what's coming per the ensembles and the general pattern set up. Now it's time to fine tune the temps and precip chances.

Oh yeah, they dropped a "McFarland". Woo hOOOOO

[Ralph's Weather]

I love that Canadian model. It has 2F for Houston next Thursday and -2F for Lake Charles. It's about 30F colder than the other models. Last week, this far out, it predicted 4F for Houston last Saturday but the low was 39F. Canadian is generally fun to look at (and laugh at).

The 0z run gets the Brazos area to -14 next Thursday. Might be the most unsettling and out of place thing I've ever seen lol.

An insane run to be sure and def looks like typical Canadian bias, but it does highlight the possibility of severe cold for mid week. Single digits are possible for areas that get a solid snow cover. Sub 0 takes such ideal conditions that I have trouble believing that until its within 48 hours, but 1040mb overhead, clear skies and snow cover can do it.