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wxman57 wrote:I love that Canadian model. It has 2F for Houston next Thursday and -2F for Lake Charles. It's about 30F colder than the other models. Last week, this far out, it predicted 4F for Houston last Saturday but the low was 39F. Canadian is generally fun to look at (and laugh at).
Portastorm wrote:Rgv20 wrote:NWS Brownsville
A cold front with air derived from the arctic will arrive on
Saturday and we will have a McFarland clone (referring to the
classic 1976 paper by M.J. McFarland describing a synoptic setup
that produces unusually cold weather for deep South Texas). Once a
cold front moves through, the mid-level trough axis from Hudson
Bay southwest across the United States with a north-south blocking
ridge to the west allows very cold air to plummet south through
nothing but barbed wire fencing over the Plains. The resulting
"signature" is often present when extreme cold devastates local
agriculture, especially when that industry was of major
importance.
Temperatures will "free-fall" starting Saturday night creating a
winter weather threat that will persists through much of the
week. Though initially dry, cold air nosing south into the CWA
will dance with warmer and moister marine air to set up a
deepening coastal trough. That will enhance rain chances and, when
combined with the colder temperatures which are expected to reach
a nadir Wednesday and Thursday, will up the chances for pockets
of wintry precip.
Used an NBM baseline for the forecast, realizing that there is
still a lot of uncertainty. Some of the models (like the NAM)
handle the colder temps better, and those have yet to come into
prime range. For now, the ECMWF and the NBM50 seem to be tracking
well. A bit concerning is that the lower end NBM probabilities (25
and 10 percent) which might be considered reasonable worst case
scenarios, take temps well below freezing for the coldest
nights/mornings. For now, however, we are looking at freezing
temps (around 32 degrees) for the Ranchlands Monday morning, a
light freeze across the northern tier and Starr Counties Tuesday
morning, and a light (possible hard) freeze for that same area
Wednesday morning along with a light freeze reaching Hidalgo,
Willacy, and northern Cameron Counties.
For us old-timers, the phrase "McFarland Signature" is an attention-getter! As some of you wrote about yesterday, once the NWS Brownsville office used that phrase, you knew that a heckuva cold blast was coming down into Texas. So to see reference to this again certainly raises a few eyebrows. Reference to that phrase also meant that it wouldn't be a one-day-and-done kind of thing but a more prolonged cold snap.
IMO the globals won't latch on well to the temps for next week until this weekend. We know what's coming per the ensembles and the general pattern set up. Now it's time to fine tune the temps and precip chances.
wxman57 wrote:I love that Canadian model. It has 2F for Houston next Thursday and -2F for Lake Charles. It's about 30F colder than the other models. Last week, this far out, it predicted 4F for Houston last Saturday but the low was 39F. Canadian is generally fun to look at (and laugh at).
bubba hotep wrote:
I'll drive to BR and fight family & friends if that verifies! Give me back my snow!
Ntxw wrote:bubba hotep wrote:
I'll drive to BR and fight family & friends if that verifies! Give me back my snow!
Patience my friend, let our I-10 corridor neighbors get some. We can squeeze out a few with some ratios, pretty close!
BradKingK wrote:Ntxw wrote:bubba hotep wrote:
I'll drive to BR and fight family & friends if that verifies! Give me back my snow!
Patience my friend, let our I-10 corridor neighbors get some. We can squeeze out a few with some ratios, pretty close!
What about us tweeners I-10 and I-20? We're snow lovers, too.
bubba hotep wrote:Portastorm wrote:Rgv20 wrote:NWS Brownsville
A cold front with air derived from the arctic will arrive on
Saturday and we will have a McFarland clone (referring to the
classic 1976 paper by M.J. McFarland describing a synoptic setup
that produces unusually cold weather for deep South Texas). Once a
cold front moves through, the mid-level trough axis from Hudson
Bay southwest across the United States with a north-south blocking
ridge to the west allows very cold air to plummet south through
nothing but barbed wire fencing over the Plains. The resulting
"signature" is often present when extreme cold devastates local
agriculture, especially when that industry was of major
importance.
Temperatures will "free-fall" starting Saturday night creating a
winter weather threat that will persists through much of the
week. Though initially dry, cold air nosing south into the CWA
will dance with warmer and moister marine air to set up a
deepening coastal trough. That will enhance rain chances and, when
combined with the colder temperatures which are expected to reach
a nadir Wednesday and Thursday, will up the chances for pockets
of wintry precip.
Used an NBM baseline for the forecast, realizing that there is
still a lot of uncertainty. Some of the models (like the NAM)
handle the colder temps better, and those have yet to come into
prime range. For now, the ECMWF and the NBM50 seem to be tracking
well. A bit concerning is that the lower end NBM probabilities (25
and 10 percent) which might be considered reasonable worst case
scenarios, take temps well below freezing for the coldest
nights/mornings. For now, however, we are looking at freezing
temps (around 32 degrees) for the Ranchlands Monday morning, a
light freeze across the northern tier and Starr Counties Tuesday
morning, and a light (possible hard) freeze for that same area
Wednesday morning along with a light freeze reaching Hidalgo,
Willacy, and northern Cameron Counties.
For us old-timers, the phrase "McFarland Signature" is an attention-getter! As some of you wrote about yesterday, once the NWS Brownsville office used that phrase, you knew that a heckuva cold blast was coming down into Texas. So to see reference to this again certainly raises a few eyebrows. Reference to that phrase also meant that it wouldn't be a one-day-and-done kind of thing but a more prolonged cold snap.
IMO the globals won't latch on well to the temps for next week until this weekend. We know what's coming per the ensembles and the general pattern set up. Now it's time to fine tune the temps and precip chances.
That's why it was pretty safe last week to lean on a big cold blast. The pattern certainly supports it. In addition to McFarland, more recent work by Furtado and others on CAO lined up when looking at lagged composites.
Brent wrote:Icon snowing on the coast again
Ntxw wrote:BradKingK wrote:Ntxw wrote:
Patience my friend, let our I-10 corridor neighbors get some. We can squeeze out a few with some ratios, pretty close!
What about us tweeners I-10 and I-20? We're snow lovers, too.
Set ups like these favor the south for moisture, it's really cold up and down the layers. Tweeners, like the rest of us will be like Nebraska and Kansas, go for the low qpf ratio surprises. It will be powder.
MississippiWx wrote:Not liking the GFS trends...hopefully it's on its own. Very suppressed look.
Ntxw wrote:Think the Canadian might be a big storm run (compared to GFS) since it digs more.
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