Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

Ill take that run! That GFS is a 2017-18 snow like event for se texas

[Ntxw]

Think the Canadian might be a big storm run (compared to GFS) since it digs more.

I have also noticed very high model uncertainty for this weekend

What we do know is that extreme cold is coming

What we don't know is how cold we could get and if there will be snow involved

The trend has been to slow down the upper level features.

[MississippiWx]

Think the Canadian might be a big storm run (compared to GFS) since it digs more.

Hoping the GFS is still having issues resolving the dense airmass digging more south than it's forecasting.

[Brent]

Icon snowing on the coast again

Brent, looking like we will miss out this go around?

We definitely need a miracle trend at this point

[MississippiWx]

Canadian is still a big hit.

[Stratton23]

Oh trust me, id bet my entire life savings on the GFS being too warm , i can almost guarantee when models like the NAM get in range, they will be noticeable colder than the globals ( outside the cmc)

[Ntxw]

Think the Canadian might be a big storm run (compared to GFS) since it digs more.

Hoping the GFS is still having issues resolving the dense airmass digging more south than it's forecasting.

That and it's been having trouble with the STJ/southern stream. Run to run, it does not have it in the same place, or at all in some cases.

[WacoWx]

...I ran a 5k up here just for fun ...if I don't come back in 25 minutes or less ...

nice humble brag.

[HockeyTx82]

...I ran a 5k up here just for fun ...if I don't come back in 25 minutes or less ...

nice humble brag.

Sorry about that. Was just posting my story.

[Rgv20]

Oh trust me, id bet my entire life savings on the GFS being too warm , i can almost guarantee when models like the NAM get in range, they will be noticeable colder than the globals ( outside the cmc)

That would be easy money! The morning discussion from the NWS Brownsville alluded to this but still went closer to the GFS and ECMWF for temps (Can't blame them as freezing temperatures is really rare down here) I'm looking forward on getting on the NAM's range as it does a terrific job down here with forecasting temperatures.

[Ntxw]

Also don't forget models have been zoning in on a 2nd system the end of the week behind the first one.

[gpsnowman]

...I ran a 5k up here just for fun ...if I don't come back in 25 minutes or less ...

nice humble brag.

Sorry about that. Was just posting my story.

Back in 82 I could throw a pigskin a quarter mile.

[gpsnowman]

Also don't forget models have been zoning in on a 2nd system the end of the week behind the first one.

I saw that around the Friday time frame. Do you think we will have enough arctic air remaining?

[Stratton23]

gpsnowman i think so, CMC keeps the arctic air around, GFS with its classic progressive biacy is trying to move everything out quickly

[snownado]

The models at least have backed off on the really extreme cold.

It will indeed be well below average with temps in the 20s and 30s for a few days (with even cooler wind chills of course), but the apocalyptic Feb 2021 look they had before seems to have thankfully backed off.

[rwfromkansas]

So my Kansas family Christmas was rescheduled to next Saturday from earlier in the month due to the snow up there. lol.

Hope we don't get a storm that Friday here unless it's after we leave. Would make travel fun.

I just hope that we have a much colder snap than the last one, which seems likely.

[Ntxw]

Also don't forget models have been zoning in on a 2nd system the end of the week behind the first one.

I saw that around the Friday time frame. Do you think we will have enough arctic air remaining?

It'll be marginal older cold. Orangeblood likes to reminds us there's typically a front end storm and a back end storm with the air mass exchange.

[orangeblood]

Think the Canadian might be a big storm run (compared to GFS) since it digs more.

Hoping the GFS is still having issues resolving the dense airmass digging more south than it's forecasting.

That and it's been having trouble with the STJ/southern stream. Run to run, it does not have it in the same place, or at all in some cases.

It took the GFS inside 100 hrs before it figured the 500mb pattern for last weeks storm system (baja cut-off or no cut-off)....the run to run variance at the 5-7 day range is quite comical particularly with cut-off ULLs

Amazing 500 mb discrepancy b/w GFS and Canadian inside 144,. big implications for next week. Will be interesting to see where the Euro goes towards.

IMO GFS is eroding the deep cold Arctic High too quickly and progressing things east like it usually does at this range

[cheezyWXguy]

nice humble brag.

Sorry about that. Was just posting my story.

Back in 82 I could throw a pigskin a quarter mile.

How much you wanna bet I can throw a football over them mountains?

[MississippiWx]

The models at least have backed off on the really extreme cold.

It will indeed be well below average with temps in the 20s and 30s for a few days (with even cooler wind chills of course), but the apocalyptic Feb 2021 look they had before seems to have thankfully backed off.

Some of that has to do with model-perceived snow/icepack or lack thereof.