Florida Weather

[psyclone]

Looks like we get grazed next week by the arctic invasion up north and then hopefully we finally start warming up. This stretch reminds me why I cheer on the southeast ridge in the winter

[NDG]

There is a small chance of a freeze for at least across central FL next Wednesday morning per the latest two runs of the Euro model but I have very little confidence on its forecast past 5 days when just 6-7 days ago it was showing low 30s all the way down to interior South FL for tomorrow morning.
Rest of models don't agree with the Euro for next Wednesday's low temps.

[chaser1]

That sounds about right the way things are looking. Both GFS & EURO depicting deep low 500 mb heights into North/Central Florida around next Tue/Wed. One thing that appears to be occuring is the location and orientation of the large post-frontal surface high seems further north and east for that forecast period. That would result in a near immediate NE component to the surface winds. That would certainly be much less cold than a straight NW to Northerly wind would advect right down the spine of the peninsula Meanwhile, in spite of the lower/sharper mid level trough support, that seems to have retrograde a bit westward thus our mid-level flow looks to be more from the west (or WSW) than a more direct arctic NW'erly or North flow. If the models are projecting this correctly, it would make sense to anticipate slower southward cold front progression and some increase in the moist flow ahead and along slower frontal passages. Any decent rain would be good.

[NDG]

Latest 12z Euro dropped its earlier run of freezing temps all the way down to Naples FL for Wednesday morning.

[psyclone]

This could be a close shave. It looks like either a cold rain or a freeze threat down this way. Snow in the forecast over north Florida several days out. You don't see that everyday. A stoutly miserable stretch incoming...at a minimum.

[chaser1]

Interesting; 3 straight runs by EURO depicting freezing precip up in N. Florida this upcoming Tue/Wed. What is particularly interesting is seeing the GFS and Canadian depicting frozen precip as well?! Lets just see if tomorrow's runs continue with that thought as the time line moves nearer.

[NDG]

Due to the positive tilt to the trough behind the Arctic air coming down to the southern US, central FL looks to scape another threat for freezing temps while the northern gulf coast including the FL Panhandle sees frozen precip and sub freezing temps.

[Abdullah]

Our next opportunity for cold weather comes next week, as was stated in the forecast discussion released three minutes ago:



This bit of uncertainty holds the key to whether or not January 2025 can maintain its holding as being one of the coldest Januaries we have seen in a while.

...

However, Euro projections do not look promising. According to them, the rest of the month will likely see above-normal temperatures (although there is uncertainty from Tuesday onwards next week, by Saturday we will have a clearer picture):

https://i.imgur.com/o605IzA.png

Indeed, things have gotten more clear. There indeed might be an event, and the National Weather service is aiming that we look towards Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday for the cooler temperatures as per their forecast discussion as of 6 AM today:

A dreary start to the long term forecast period as the stalled
boundary and associated moisture remain across southern Florida.
An amplifying mid-level longwave trough and preceding shortwave
trough will enter the southeastern United States late Tuesday into
Wednesday, providing some support for a more unsettled period
with the potential of a surface low developing in the northern
Gulf or in the Atlantic waters off the southeastern United States
before it advances northward late Thursday into Friday. With that,
the potential for a complete frontal passage is increasing to
close out the forecast period on Saturday. A polar continental air
mass could invade the region next weekend if the current
solutions hold with high pressure building in over a good portion
of the southeast U.S.

While rain chances remain in the forecast for a good portion of
the week, the rainfall accumulations should remain below impactful
levels for most areas unless one of the outlying solutions that
develops a stronger Gulf low mid to late week ends up verifying.
Will still need to monitor accumulations over the week to make
sure no one area becomes saturated. Otherwise, cooler temperatures
with Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday potentially being the more
standout days where temperatures will be lower than most other
days. Heading into the weekend, some solutions do depict some
colder temperatures sliding south along the peninsula which will
need to be monitored in case a frost or freeze event could emerge
for portions of inland Southwest Florida. It is still a bit too
early to decipher, especially given the lack of forecast
confidence that a clean frontal passage with air mass change will
come to fruition to close out the forecast period. Preferred a
middle-of-the-road approach with temperatures through the whole
period.

[Abdullah]

Today was an incredibly cold day in South Florida, with Miami International Airport experiencing a daily maximum of 64 degrees Fahrenheit! This is despite the morning low only being an average 57°F

That's by far the coldest this winter and among the coldest we've seen since January 15, 2023, which also reached 64°F (but had a low of 45°F, brrr!)

The day before that was even more cold, though, with a high of 62°F.

Upcoming we expect a pretty average night (in terms of temperature), not going down very far due to a lack of radiational cooling (in fact, it's probably going to rain a little). However, the week is starting to look like it may have some serious cold toward its end. Much uncertainty remains.

[HurricaneBelle]

Today was an incredibly cold day in South Florida, with Miami International Airport experiencing a daily maximum of 64 degrees Fahrenheit! This is despite the morning low only being an average 57°F

That's by far the coldest this winter and among the coldest we've seen since January 15, 2023, which also reached 64°F (but had a low of 45°F, brrr!)

The day before that was even more cold, though, with a high of 62°F.

Upcoming we expect a pretty average night (in terms of temperature), not going down very far due to a lack of radiational cooling (in fact, it's probably going to rain a little). However, the week is starting to look like it may have some serious cold toward its end. Much uncertainty remains.

64 sounds great to me as it's mid-40s and raining here in Clearwater.

[chaser1]

Today was an incredibly cold day in South Florida, with Miami International Airport experiencing a daily maximum of 64 degrees Fahrenheit! This is despite the morning low only being an average 57°F

That's by far the coldest this winter and among the coldest we've seen since January 15, 2023, which also reached 64°F (but had a low of 45°F, brrr!)

The day before that was even more cold, though, with a high of 62°F.

Upcoming we expect a pretty average night (in terms of temperature), not going down very far due to a lack of radiational cooling (in fact, it's probably going to rain a little). However, the week is starting to look like it may have some serious cold toward its end. Much uncertainty remains.

64 sounds great to me as it's mid-40s and raining here in Clearwater.

Yeah, that's pretty "ick" LOL!!

[Abdullah]

Despite the temperature this afternoon making it to the low 80s and high 70s across South Florida, we can confirm that we have a cold week up ahead!

Due to cloudiness, the daily maximum tomorrow will be notably low, with Miami International currently projecting 66°F. Much colder than average!

However, this is small compared to the blast that's coming towards the end of the week. After Thursday morning (our last day of near-average winter temperatures), a cold front will begin to move in. The effects of this advection will be felt as temperatures deviate from the norm more and more. Thursday afternoon projects 70°F (9°F anomaly), Friday morning projects 51°F (14°F anomaly), Friday afternoon projects 62°F (17°F anomaly!), and Saturday morning projects 46°F (19°F anomaly!*). A warming trend will occur thereafter and by Sunday morning we should be back to normal.

*Anomalies based on seasonal averages since 2015

[AtlanticWind]

Kind of weird ,it is foggy here in Plantation at 11 30 pm
Don’t see that often

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MattDevittWX/status/1881930659817730201

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/OfficialJoelF/status/1882047930330493295

[cycloneye]

Prepare for very cold temperatures in South Florida.

 https://x.com/NWSMiami/status/1882071931131994380

[Abdullah]

Today was a cold day, too. Way colder than expected.

Miami International hit a low of 52°F at 9:10 AM!



https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KMIA

---

Today also will be notably chilly. Projections are still at 66°F for Miami International Airport being the daily maximum.

However, this may underperform. Those projections were last updated at 4 AM, back when temperatures seemed on track to match the forecast.

As of now, there's a long way to go, and we stand at 55°F at 11 AM.
To top it off, it looks as if it'll be cloudy through high noon and for a few more hours after that.

[FireRat]

Crazy how parts of the Florida Panhandle got record snow, with Milton FL getting a whopping 9.8 inches of snow. This is absolutely insane, to put it in perspective I haven't seen that much snow here in NC since 2018, and it was about 8 inches too, so this event beats many snowstorms from the Carolinas. I would imagine this very southerly snowpack will make for some really cold nights in the FL peninsula once the front clears later on.

[Abdullah]

Today also will be notably chilly. Projections are still at 66°F for Miami International Airport being the daily maximum.

The temperature ended up peaking at 59°F. However it won't count as the daily maximum since that was achieved at 12:53 AM today at 68°F.

The low is projected to be 58°F tomorrow morning and the high is projected to be 68°F. Let's see how it ends up.

[Abdullah]

In light of the newly formed temperature inversion, NWS Miami dropped their forecast low temperatures for tomorrow morning by ~5°F across the board!



New forecast low is 53°F!

It's already 54°F anyway!