Texas Winter 2024-2025

[iorange55]

When did HockeyTx82 turn into a robot?

[TropicalTundra]

When did HockeyTx82 turn into a robot?

He's letting ChatGPT answer for him since he's busy up north tearing down the wall 57 built.

[mmmmsnouts]

When did HockeyTx82 turn into a robot?

I think this is a case of game recognizing game.

[losf1981]

Why the big gaps over the Red River? It looks like it just hops right over the Red River counties. lol

They got their snow last time, the Big Snow Industrial Complex is making sure to spread the joy.

Negative. I don't live this close to Oklahoma for no reason and it's to make sure I get a shot at snow everytime!

[Charleswachal]

I am located in Houston texas. I have a deep feeling that we will see a major ice storm from San antonio across along I 10 all the way to the louisiana border. This is going to be a serious storm in Houston. probably 0.5 to 1.0 inches of ice in the city. Houston has shown that it is not prepared for a major storm system as already seen twice in the past year with widespread multi-day outages across the city. I hope that everyone is ready for a few days without power again.

This is not being dramatic. I am actually very concerned with the readiness of Houston.

[rwfromkansas]

Why the big gaps over the Red River? It looks like it just hops right over the Red River counties. lol

They got their snow last time, the Big Snow Industrial Complex is making sure to spread the joy.

Negative. I don't live this close to Oklahoma for no reason and it's to make sure I get a shot at snow everytime!

I intentionally lived in northwest Tarrant for that reason, but it doesn't always work out. Sometimes just south of DFW jackpots, and I get less than southern DFW. Lol.

[snownado]

They got their snow last time, the Big Snow Industrial Complex is making sure to spread the joy.

Negative. I don't live this close to Oklahoma for no reason and it's to make sure I get a shot at snow everytime!

I intentionally lived in northwest Tarrant for that reason, but it doesn't always work out. Sometimes just south of DFW jackpots, and I get less than southern DFW. Lol.

Over such a fairly small geographical area and negligble differences as far as topography or proximity to water, it's really luck of the draw as far as which areas will jackpot in a weather event.

[Portastorm]

Relevant blurb from Wednesday afternoon AFD out of NWS Austin/San Antonio:

Regarding precip chances, there are some signs from the ensembles
and Global models of some form of precip occurring during the Monday
to Wednesday timeframe. The big question mark is how fast the upper
level disturbance comes in and how much moisture it will have to work
with. Right now models are all over the place in timing and
moisture. Recent ensemble guidance has the disturbance coming in
stronger and more amplified but the orientation and how much moisture
that comes with it is still up in the air at this point. With our
last event this past week moisture wasn`t the issue but rather just
how cold temperatures would get. This time around is the opposite,
being we are far more confident that temps will be very cold but we
are waiting to see how much moisture this system really has to work
with. However, as we saw with the last system it`s far too early
(still 5-6 days out) to state specifics at this time. Stay tuned to
future forecasts as more details come into focus.

[snownado]

Believe it or not, as of today, we still have patches of snow in areas away from direct sunlight.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

12Z Ensemble update....pretty clear looking at snow probabilities for next week which Model is the outlier

Euro ENS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/snow_ge_1/1736942400/1737806400-m2GDCLOyMrM.png

GEPS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/snow_ge_1/1736942400/1737806400-20jlnfmPQ8M.png

GEFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/snow_ge_1/1736942400/1737806400-DGDuV7HruVs.png

I like my odds!

[gboudx]

Believe it or not, as of today, we still have patches of snow in areas away from direct sunlight.

I work in Plano, near the Central Market on Coit. At the building I work, there's still snow in shaded areas. Obviously this area got much more snow than I got in Rockwall.

[HockeyTx82]

When did HockeyTx82 turn into a robot?

He's letting ChatGPT answer for him since he's busy up north tearing down the wall 57 built.

Trying my hardest! My son was very disappointed that he did not get to ice skate with his newly bought $20 used ice skates he got for Christmas with his Christmas money.

[Brent]

Believe it or not, as of today, we still have patches of snow in areas away from direct sunlight.

I work in Plano, near the Central Market on Coit. At the building I work, there's still snow in shaded areas. Obviously this area got much more snow than I got in Rockwall.

The shady north side of my apartment complex is still a sheet of ice here. Crazy

I've seen some random yards still decently covered too

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD


Next week still looks like quite a mess, with still some
uncertainty on how cold it will actually get. The NBM has held
fairly consistent with lower to mid 20s f for multiple nights
along and north of I10, and upper 20s to around 30f even along
the immediate coast. Fortunately most locations will see
temperatures rise above freezing for at least a few hours each
afternoon- at least that is what the models are showing for now.
An exception may be the far north from B/CS to Crockett where we
may stay near or below freezing all day on Tuesday. This cycle
looks to stay entrenched into late next week. Multiple cycles of
cold air advisories are also expected as we near the event with
wind chills in the lower 20s f and teens each morning.

The bigger question remains `will we see snow, ice or cold rain?`
particularly late Monday night through the day Tuesday. Models
remain persistent in bringing at least light precipitation for
much of the day Tuesday, which almost certainly (looking at
forecast temperatures) would fall as light snow or a wintery mix.
It is possible we could transition between primary winter
precipitation at many sites through the day. I wouldn`t try to pin
down the details of all of this just yet- given it remains 6 days
out and the large scale features could evolve quite differently
than currently progged. That being said, it is about a 50/50
forecast across much of the area to see some sort of frozen or
freezing precipitation between late Monday night into Wednesday.
Stay tuned!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The Euro is reloading in the long range. Goodness, look at that pattern.

[Tireman4]

From Jeff ( on Facebook) ( I do not know how to post images)

Images below show the National Blend of Models (NBM) for winter precipitation next week
Current chances for 1 inch of snow or more is 20-30% north of I-10.
Current chances for freezing rain are between between 40-50% over much of the area
Winter precipitation May begin as early as Monday afternoon and last into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
It is certainly possible that areas see multiple types of precipitation through the event…so accumulations are uncertain.
Hoping for more snow/sleet than freezing rain (ice) which can cause damage to trees and powerlines. Will see how the temperature profiles trend over the next few days and which precipitation type may be most dominant.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z icon a bit further west and a little slower with the disturbance through 120hr. Would help it dig further south after this period, but hopefully it wouldn’t shear out as previous runs have shown.

[Texas Snow]

Interesting comments from Dunn on their analysis for probability forecast for precipitation

FWD AFD
Meanwhile, an upstream shortwave digging through the Northern
Plains will tap into very cold polar air across northern Canada
during this time and send anomalously low 500 mb heights southward
into the Central CONUS. An arctic cold front will race southward
and will likely begin to enter our northwest counties as early as
late Friday evening. After temperatures in the upper 60s and low
70s Friday afternoon, we should see high temperatures in the low
to mid 40s on Saturday with north winds resulting in wind chills
in the upper 20s and low 30s. A persistent northerly fetch will
continue into Sunday as a 1054 mb surface high spills out of
southern Canada into the Northern Plains. Very cold overnight
temperatures are expected Saturday night with most areas in the
low 20s and wind chills likely in the single digits. Highs on
Sunday may remain near freezing all day in our Red River counties
with mid and upper 30s elsewhere. Late Sunday night into early
Monday morning will likely be the coldest night where winds become
light and skies are expected to remain generally clear. Ensemble
guidance 850 mb temperatures from both the ECMWF and GFS are both
in the 99th percentile of coldest temperatures vs. climatology.
This should support overnight lows in the mid teens to low 20s
areawide. The cold will continue through mid week with highs in
the 30s and lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. Increasing cloud
cover and perhaps some low precip chances may have more
substantial impacts to low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday
mornings. Confidence in the cold temperature forecast is very
high (>95%) through the upcoming week.

Confidence in the precipitation forecast is somewhat lower in the
Monday and Tuesday timeframe as a trailing shortwave embedded
within the overall CONUS trough shears apart and spreads forcing
for ascent across Texas. While there`s a plethora of model
guidance out there showing anything from significant snowfall to
nothing, we`ll break down some ensemble cluster analysis which
can help isolate important parameters to look for. Generally the
ensembles as a whole show about a 55% chance of wintry precip
across parts of our CWA during this timeframe, however, we`re
really more concerned with impactful wintry precip which could
result in travel issues and more significant accumulations. We`ve
isolated the two general sets of clusters; one shows the trailing
shortwave lagging a bit resulting in a little more moisture and
more overall snowfall, the other cluster shows a faster ejecting
wave and less accumulations. Heavier snowfall will require more
moisture, so we used 1/2" of precipitable water as a proxy for
where heavier precipitation could occur. When we analyze the
clusters taking in the probabilities of PWs exceeding 1/2", we
find that there`s about a 70% chance that we will NOT see PWs
exceeding 1/2" in our area. This raises confidence that the better
moisture will remain confined to coastal areas south of our CWA.
There is about a 30% chance that both the trailing shortwave will
lag behind and we`ll have moisture to work with and this is most
likely to occur across our southeast counties. We`ll advertise
this as the LESS likely scenario with up to 2" of snowfall
accumulation. The MORE likely forecast will be cold with just
minor accumulations south of I-20 and minimal impacts to travel.
We`re still several days out from this event and will continue to
refine the forecast over the coming days.


 https://x.com/nwsfortworth/status/1879643164149154071



 https://x.com/nwsfortworth/status/1879654176139219402

[Quixotic]

Always love the vague “Monday-Wednesday” timeframe.

[orangeblood]

18Z GFS even more progressive with almost no storm anywhere ….Amazing