Texas Winter 2024-2025

[MississippiWx]

GFS is even more suppressed and drier than previous runs. It’s either going to win a huge model battle, or be terribly wrong.

[Stratton23]

Its no question that the GFS is going to be dead wrong, its actually hilarious to see a once high regarded model, struggle this bad within 6 days of an event, i mean that run is pathetically bad, doesnt see the cold air, im not buying the extremely suppressed energy either, id say the GFS is completely useless right now

[orangeblood]

Its no question that the GFS is going to be dead wrong, its actually hilarious to see a once high regarded model, struggle this bad within 6 days of an event, i mean that run is pathetically bad, doesnt see the cold air, im not buying the extremely suppressed energy either, id say the GFS is completely useless right now

It’s pretty consistently terrible at this range and it’s been that way for as long as I can remember. Pretty embarrassing from a tax dollar perspective….Maybe Elon and DOGE can fix it!!

[MississippiWx]

Its no question that the GFS is going to be dead wrong, its actually hilarious to see a once high regarded model, struggle this bad within 6 days of an event, i mean that run is pathetically bad, doesnt see the cold air, im not buying the extremely suppressed energy either, id say the GFS is completely useless right now

Hoping you are right.

Kind of crazy when comparing the 500mb trends on the GFS and the Euro. The Euro is trending towards more digging of the trough while the GFS is trending towards zero digging. Complete 180s of each other at 500mb. The GFS has zero support from other models currently, and that’s the thing still giving me hope.

[iorange55]

Its no question that the GFS is going to be dead wrong, its actually hilarious to see a once high regarded model, struggle this bad within 6 days of an event, i mean that run is pathetically bad, doesnt see the cold air, im not buying the extremely suppressed energy either, id say the GFS is completely useless right now

It’s pretty consistently terrible at this range and it’s been that way for as long as I can remember. Pretty embarrassing from a tax dollar perspective….Maybe Elon and DOGE can fix it!!

Do you have recent data to back up these claims? It feels like it’s more of a, “it’s terrible” when it says something we don’t like” and “finally catching on” when it shows something we do like.

[bubba hotep]

Believe it or not, as of today, we still have patches of snow in areas away from direct sunlight.

Same here.

[orangeblood]

Its no question that the GFS is going to be dead wrong, its actually hilarious to see a once high regarded model, struggle this bad within 6 days of an event, i mean that run is pathetically bad, doesnt see the cold air, im not buying the extremely suppressed energy either, id say the GFS is completely useless right now

It’s pretty consistently terrible at this range and it’s been that way for as long as I can remember. Pretty embarrassing from a tax dollar perspective….Maybe Elon and DOGE can fix it!!

Do you have recent data to back up these claims? It feels like it’s more of a, “it’s terrible” when it says something we don’t like” and “finally catching on” when it shows something we do like.

Just last week, Euro beat it badly at 500mb from 6-7 days out. it’s all archived over the years, just need to take the time to look

[Stratton23]

iorange55 has nothing to do with its just a terrible run and we dont like it, it has consistently been wrong with the 500 mb pattern so far over the last several days and it got it wrong with the system last week, but this is a classic example of a global model that just cannot see the true density of siberian air , its nearly 15 degrees warmer than all the other guidance, that right away is a huge red flag for that model, its just doing terrible even in the short- medium range with this pattern

[HockeyTx82]

It’s pretty consistently terrible at this range and it’s been that way for as long as I can remember. Pretty embarrassing from a tax dollar perspective….Maybe Elon and DOGE can fix it!!

Do you have recent data to back up these claims? It feels like it’s more of a, “it’s terrible” when it says something we don’t like” and “finally catching on” when it shows something we do like.

Just last week, Euro beat it badly at 500mb from 6-7 days out. it’s all archived over the years, just need to take the time to look

Don't make me give my Copilot ChatGPT response......

[Portastorm]

Its no question that the GFS is going to be dead wrong, its actually hilarious to see a once high regarded model, struggle this bad within 6 days of an event, i mean that run is pathetically bad, doesnt see the cold air, im not buying the extremely suppressed energy either, id say the GFS is completely useless right now

It’s pretty consistently terrible at this range and it’s been that way for as long as I can remember. Pretty embarrassing from a tax dollar perspective….Maybe Elon and DOGE can fix it!!

Do you have recent data to back up these claims? It feels like it’s more of a, “it’s terrible” when it says something we don’t like” and “finally catching on” when it shows something we do like.

I think this is a pretty fair question. Unfortunately the website that shows the latest 5-6 computer model scores is down at the moment. I wanted to see recently how the GFS was doing with its 500 mb forecasts for North America.

[HockeyTx82]

---Statistically speaking is the GFS or EURO better at handling cold dense Arctic Siberian air?

**Statistically, the ECMWF model (Euro) tends to outperform the GFS model in predicting cold, dense Arctic Siberian air masses due to several factors:**

1. **Higher Resolution**: The ECMWF model operates at a higher spatial resolution (approximately 9 km) compared to the GFS model (approximately 13 km). This finer resolution allows the ECMWF model to better capture small-scale atmospheric processes and temperature gradients associated with Arctic air masses[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://windy.app/blog/ecmwf-vs-gfs-dif ... 1daa162054 "1").

2. **Advanced Data Assimilation**: The ECMWF model employs sophisticated data assimilation techniques, incorporating a wide range of observational data from satellites, weather stations, and other sources. This leads to more accurate initial conditions, which are crucial for predicting the movement and intensity of cold air masses[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-ce ... 1daa162054 "2").

3. **Better Handling of Atmospheric Dynamics**: The ECMWF model has shown superior performance in simulating the dynamics of the atmosphere, including the behavior of high-pressure systems and the advection of cold air[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/160 ... 1daa162054 "3"). This is particularly important for accurately predicting the southward movement of Arctic air masses.

4. **Ensemble Forecasting**: The ECMWF model uses ensemble forecasting, which involves running multiple simulations with slightly different initial conditions to account for uncertainties. This approach provides a range of possible outcomes and helps improve the reliability of the forecast[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-ce ... 1daa162054 "2").

5. **Historical Performance**: Studies and evaluations have consistently shown that the ECMWF model performs better in medium-range temperature forecasts, especially in extreme weather situations like cold air outbreaks from the Arctic[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://windy.app/blog/ecmwf-vs-gfs-dif ... 1daa162054 "1")[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://www.jyfs.org/is-the-gfs-model-t ... 1daa162054 "4").

In summary, the ECMWF model's higher resolution, advanced data assimilation, superior handling of atmospheric dynamics, ensemble forecasting, and historical performance make it more reliable for predicting cold, dense Arctic Siberian air masses compared to the GFS model.

---

Does this provide the level of detail and meteorological terminology you were looking for?

[Portastorm]

You're killing me brother. Killing me!

[orangeblood]

---

**Statistically, the ECMWF model (Euro) tends to outperform the GFS model in predicting cold, dense Arctic Siberian air masses due to several factors:**

1. **Higher Resolution**: The ECMWF model operates at a higher spatial resolution (approximately 9 km) compared to the GFS model (approximately 13 km). This finer resolution allows the ECMWF model to better capture small-scale atmospheric processes and temperature gradients associated with Arctic air masses[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://windy.app/blog/ecmwf-vs-gfs-dif ... 1daa162054 "1").

2. **Advanced Data Assimilation**: The ECMWF model employs sophisticated data assimilation techniques, incorporating a wide range of observational data from satellites, weather stations, and other sources. This leads to more accurate initial conditions, which are crucial for predicting the movement and intensity of cold air masses[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-ce ... 1daa162054 "2").

3. **Better Handling of Atmospheric Dynamics**: The ECMWF model has shown superior performance in simulating the dynamics of the atmosphere, including the behavior of high-pressure systems and the advection of cold air[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/160 ... 1daa162054 "3"). This is particularly important for accurately predicting the southward movement of Arctic air masses.

4. **Ensemble Forecasting**: The ECMWF model uses ensemble forecasting, which involves running multiple simulations with slightly different initial conditions to account for uncertainties. This approach provides a range of possible outcomes and helps improve the reliability of the forecast[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-ce ... 1daa162054 "2").

5. **Historical Performance**: Studies and evaluations have consistently shown that the ECMWF model performs better in medium-range temperature forecasts, especially in extreme weather situations like cold air outbreaks from the Arctic[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://windy.app/blog/ecmwf-vs-gfs-dif ... 1daa162054 "1")[43dcd9a7-70db-4a1f-b0ae-981daa162054](https://www.jyfs.org/is-the-gfs-model-t ... 1daa162054 "4").

In summary, the ECMWF model's higher resolution, advanced data assimilation, superior handling of atmospheric dynamics, ensemble forecasting, and historical performance make it more reliable for predicting cold, dense Arctic Siberian air masses compared to the GFS model.

---

Does this provide the level of detail and meteorological terminology you were looking for?

In other words…. KING EURO!!!

It’s a ChatGPT world now, we just live in it!

[HockeyTx82]

Ok so I am using Microsoft's Copilot which does use ChatGPT on the backend. I do hope you all find it of use and I promise not to go crazy with it. It's split between Microsoft and ChatGPT. It makes it very powerful.

It is very helpful and I have used it for many things and have done some very heavy research into various topics.

My intent is to not derail the thread with this post, but just simply to inform you guys what I'm using to provide you the over the top reply sometimes.

[Stratton23]

After looking at the 18z GEFS, I can easily conclude that the op GFS is lost on an island lol

[Cpv17]

After looking at the 18z GEFS, I can easily conclude that the op GFS is lost on an island lol

Exactly what I figured.

[gpsnowman]

Ok so I am using Microsoft's Copilot which does use ChatGPT on the backend. I do hope you all find it of use and I promise not to go crazy with it. It's split between Microsoft and ChatGPT. It makes it very powerful.

It is very helpful and I have used it for many things and have done some very heavy research into various topics.

My intent is to not derail the thread with this post, but just simply to inform you guys what I'm using to provide you the over the top reply sometimes.

As long as it used to thwart Throckmorton.

[orangeblood]

After looking at the 18z GEFS, I can easily conclude that the op GFS is lost on an island lol

Yep, no doubt.

OP precip totals


GEFS totals

[Ntxw]

Without the southern stream the GFS wants to go about it's progressive tendencies. I'd probably toss given how it has not been able to resolve this between its own runs. Even if the other guidance isn't perfect they have not been swinging wildly like the GFS at 500mb.

[TomballEd]

Pressure versus temperature- I would think if there isn't much of a snowpack Nebraska to Oklahoma the airmass will modify more moving over dark ground. At work or I'd look for an existing snow cover map.