Texas Winter 2024-2025

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Brandon8181
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5741 Postby Brandon8181 » Wed Jan 15, 2025 9:49 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Throckmorton wrote:The various AI chat platforms do not research anything. They simply spit out data they've been fed. They are often wrong.


I would do more research before you just make a simple statement that is inherently false for the purpose I am using AI for in this case.

It’s a common misconception that AI chat platforms like me simply regurgitate data. While I do rely on vast amounts of information, there's more finesse involved in how I find and provide answers. Here’s a peek under the hood at how Copilot works in terms of finding data:

1. **Knowledge Base**: I'm built on a robust foundation of information from various sources, including books, articles, and verified data. This allows me to have a broad understanding of many topics.

2. **Web Search Capability**: To provide the most accurate and up-to-date information, I can perform web searches in real-time. If someone asks me a question and I need more current data, I can search the web and retrieve the latest information, often complete with citations for credibility.

3. **Contextual Understanding**: I don't just pull random facts; I understand context. This means I can tailor my responses to be relevant to the conversation. I use the context from previous turns and the broader conversation to ensure my answers are appropriate and make sense.

4. **Synthesis and Interpretation**: When I provide information, I synthesize and interpret data to give a cohesive, understandable answer. I draw from multiple sources and cross-check facts to reduce the likelihood of errors.

5. **Continuous Learning**: My knowledge isn't static. While I'm constantly being updated, I also adapt based on interactions to improve over time.

So, when I provide information, it's not just a random guess or a recycled fact—it's a curated, well-considered response based on a combination of pre-existing knowledge and the latest data I can find.

Does this help clarify how I find and deliver data?

Here's a link to learn more about me: [Microsoft's privacy statement](https://privacy.microsoft.com/en-us/privacystatement).


I think your post that use A1 / chat co pilot are extremely informative and I think they provide additional insight that isn’t generally provided here. As we go through different situations it’s interesting to read, learn, and “hear” the different point of view.
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5742 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 15, 2025 10:02 pm

My biggest concern for DFW is that the Euro can overdo QPF in these setups. So, that less than 0.2" QPF showing up on the model maps might not be real.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5743 Postby JDawg512 » Wed Jan 15, 2025 10:07 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:I just can't take the GFS serious without thinking about all the runs that had a snow hole here the entire 384 hours around the time I went to Kansas City for the blizzard :lol: that was 4 days out from us getting 6 inches of snow(which was the snowiest day at the airport in 14 years) how could it be so wrong


Well I got an inch of rain today and a few days ago it wasn’t even supposed to rain here today.


Your so lucky. Didn't get anything here from today's system except clouds in the morning... If we get anything at all next week. Hoping for more rain like that last system which was a wild time! :multi:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5744 Postby Quixotic » Wed Jan 15, 2025 10:15 pm

bubba hotep wrote:My biggest concern for DFW is that the Euro can overdo QPF in these setups. So, that less than 0.2" QPF showing up on the model maps might not be real.


Yeah, 0.2 is very close to 0.0. I will say the systems that come down from the NW (clipper style) tend to be sneaky. New Years Eve 2000, one came in and all of NTX got a fluffy 2-3”. Was supposed to be flurries. I know models have improved but I don’t know if there’s a whole lotta precedent that would give data. Just something to keep in mind.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5745 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 15, 2025 10:20 pm

0z Icon captures the ULL beaneath the Pac ridge. Might be a decent qpf run.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5746 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 15, 2025 10:21 pm

JDawg512 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:I just can't take the GFS serious without thinking about all the runs that had a snow hole here the entire 384 hours around the time I went to Kansas City for the blizzard :lol: that was 4 days out from us getting 6 inches of snow(which was the snowiest day at the airport in 14 years) how could it be so wrong


Well I got an inch of rain today and a few days ago it wasn’t even supposed to rain here today.


Your so lucky. Didn't get anything here from today's system except clouds in the morning... If we get anything at all next week. Hoping for more rain like that last system which was a wild time! :multi:


I’ve had 3.7” in the past week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5747 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 15, 2025 10:25 pm

Icon I-10 from SE Texas to Toledo Bend gets the snow and mix this run, northern Gulf Coast also active. Some in S-C TX.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5748 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Jan 15, 2025 10:28 pm

Ntxw wrote:Icon I-10 from SE Texas to Toledo Bend gets the snow and mix this run, northern Gulf Coast also active. Some in S-C TX.


Yep. Icon a little more northerly and widespread with the precip. Nice to see. Come on, GFS. Join the party.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5749 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Jan 15, 2025 10:34 pm

ICON is weird, that snow is further south than what is being depicted on that model, rain south of I-10 but its in the 20’s, very odd
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5750 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Jan 15, 2025 10:35 pm

Stratton23 wrote:ICON is weird, that snow is further south than what is being depicted on that model, rain south of I-10 but its in the 20’s, very odd


Models will likely underestimate the depth of the cold in that environment. Icon has been showing a good chance of freezing rain though mixing in.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5751 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Jan 15, 2025 10:39 pm

Quixotic wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:My biggest concern for DFW is that the Euro can overdo QPF in these setups. So, that less than 0.2" QPF showing up on the model maps might not be real.


Yeah, 0.2 is very close to 0.0. I will say the systems that come down from the NW (clipper style) tend to be sneaky. New Years Eve 2000, one came in and all of NTX got a fluffy 2-3”. Was supposed to be flurries. I know models have improved but I don’t know if there’s a whole lotta precedent that would give data. Just something to keep in mind.

I could be wrong here but I believe the DFW snow on the Friday before the Super Bowl 2011 came in the same way. Disregard if my memory is gone.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5752 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Jan 15, 2025 10:43 pm

Either way we had established cold and freezing landscape. Quickest accumulating snows I've seen outside of 2021.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5753 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Jan 15, 2025 10:51 pm

While we wait for the GFS/CMC.....latest WPC QPF. Question becomes what type of winter precip will most of this end up being?

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5754 Postby Brandon8181 » Wed Jan 15, 2025 10:52 pm

Why does no one ever talk about the CFS? (Climate forecast system)?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5755 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 15, 2025 10:52 pm

Stratton23 wrote:ICON is weird, that snow is further south than what is being depicted on that model, rain south of I-10 but its in the 20’s, very odd


Bad trends on the models today for our area. Hopefully it shifts back further south with the snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5756 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 15, 2025 10:56 pm

Brandon8181 wrote:Why does no one ever talk about the CFS? (Climate forecast system)?


Orangeblood did yesterday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5757 Postby TomballEd » Wed Jan 15, 2025 10:57 pm

Stratton23 wrote:ICON is weird, that snow is further south than what is being depicted on that model, rain south of I-10 but its in the 20’s, very odd


Free ICON on Tropical Tidbits just displays rain and snow. With ~0.5 inches in the Houston area failing when temps are below 30, the actual p-type is likely freezing rain or sleet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5758 Postby Brandon8181 » Wed Jan 15, 2025 10:59 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Brandon8181 wrote:Why does no one ever talk about the CFS? (Climate forecast system)?


Orangeblood did yesterday.


Oh, thank you. I’ve never noticed anyone refer to it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5759 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Jan 15, 2025 11:00 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:ICON is weird, that snow is further south than what is being depicted on that model, rain south of I-10 but its in the 20’s, very odd


Bad trends on the models today for our area. Hopefully it shifts back further south with the snow.


Wasn’t a trend. It was always going to be an ice storm for our area. Old school common sense tells us that
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5760 Postby Quixotic » Wed Jan 15, 2025 11:06 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
Quixotic wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:My biggest concern for DFW is that the Euro can overdo QPF in these setups. So, that less than 0.2" QPF showing up on the model maps might not be real.


Yeah, 0.2 is very close to 0.0. I will say the systems that come down from the NW (clipper style) tend to be sneaky. New Years Eve 2000, one came in and all of NTX got a fluffy 2-3”. Was supposed to be flurries. I know models have improved but I don’t know if there’s a whole lotta precedent that would give data. Just something to keep in mind.

I could be wrong here but I believe the DFW snow on the Friday before the Super Bowl 2011 came in the same way. Disregard if my memory is gone.


I think you are correct. Don’t recall what the forecast was but definitely wasn’t 6”. I went into the woods after it tapered off and got some terrific photos of birds. Up over my Merrill hiking boots.
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