Texas Winter 2024-2025

[gpsnowman]

Yeah, 0.2 is very close to 0.0. I will say the systems that come down from the NW (clipper style) tend to be sneaky. New Years Eve 2000, one came in and all of NTX got a fluffy 2-3”. Was supposed to be flurries. I know models have improved but I don’t know if there’s a whole lotta precedent that would give data. Just something to keep in mind.

I could be wrong here but I believe the DFW snow on the Friday before the Super Bowl 2011 came in the same way. Disregard if my memory is gone.

I think you are correct. Don’t recall what the forecast was but definitely wasn’t 6”. I went into the woods after it tapered off and got some terrific photos of birds. Up over my Merrill hiking boots.

I happened to be at work that night just as the snow started. Within seconds the ground was covered, grass concrete and all. Beautiful snow as always.

[MississippiWx]

GFS still nada for a storm. Still way off the other models at 500mb. Just wondering what it’s seeing and if there is any merit to it.

[Quixotic]

My biggest concern for DFW is that the Euro can overdo QPF in these setups. So, that less than 0.2" QPF showing up on the model maps might not be real.

Yeah, 0.2 is very close to 0.0. I will say the systems that come down from the NW (clipper style) tend to be sneaky. New Years Eve 2000, one came in and all of NTX got a fluffy 2-3”. Was supposed to be flurries. I know models have improved but I don’t know if there’s a whole lotta precedent that would give data. Just something to keep in mind.

I could be wrong here but I believe the DFW snow on the Friday before the Super Bowl 2011 came in the same way. Disregard if my memory is gone.

That was a great week. Two or three days before we had thundersleet. Violent winds too. Woke me up in the middle of the night.

[Quixotic]

I could be wrong here but I believe the DFW snow on the Friday before the Super Bowl 2011 came in the same way. Disregard if my memory is gone.

I think you are correct. Don’t recall what the forecast was but definitely wasn’t 6”. I went into the woods after it tapered off and got some terrific photos of birds. Up over my Merrill hiking boots.

Good stuff. I prefer the powder to the wet snow. Takes longer to melt off.
I happened to be at work that night just as the snow started. Within seconds the ground was covered, grass concrete and all. Beautiful snow as always.

[Stratton23]

Still cant take the GFS seriously, its pathetic even at 2 days out its already way different than the other globals, CMC looking like another big run

[Quixotic]

I could be wrong here but I believe the DFW snow on the Friday before the Super Bowl 2011 came in the same way. Disregard if my memory is gone.

I think you are correct. Don’t recall what the forecast was but definitely wasn’t 6”. I went into the woods after it tapered off and got some terrific photos of birds. Up over my Merrill hiking boots.

Good stuff. I prefer the powder to the wet snow. Takes longer to melt off.
I happened to be at work that night just as the snow started. Within seconds the ground was covered, grass concrete and all. Beautiful snow as always.

[txtwister78]

Meanwhile here comes the steroid cold CMC.

[orangeblood]

Still cant take the GFS seriously, its pathetic even at 2 days out its already way different than the other globals, CMC looking like another big run

It’s becoming quite entertaining….don’t think I’ve ever seen this kind of discrepancy from 120 hrs out before.

[Stratton23]

orangeblood im convinced hellen keller could see this pattern better than the GFS lol

[gpsnowman]

Yeah, 0.2 is very close to 0.0. I will say the systems that come down from the NW (clipper style) tend to be sneaky. New Years Eve 2000, one came in and all of NTX got a fluffy 2-3”. Was supposed to be flurries. I know models have improved but I don’t know if there’s a whole lotta precedent that would give data. Just something to keep in mind.

I could be wrong here but I believe the DFW snow on the Friday before the Super Bowl 2011 came in the same way. Disregard if my memory is gone.

That was a great week. Two or three days before we had thundersleet. Violent winds too. Woke me up in the middle of the night.

Agreed. That week was fun to watch unfold. Funny you mention thundersleet. First time I had ever heard it a few days prior before the Friday snow. Started as heavy rain and thunder then quickly transitioned to heavy sleet then thundersleet. Amazing weather.

[Brent]

The GFS is so lost... 35 and rain next Wednesday here like where does it come up with this stuff

[gpsnowman]

orangeblood im convinced hellen keller could see this pattern better than the GFS lol

Don't tell Ann Sullivan.

[wxman22]

The CMC continues to show a potent winterstorm. BTW the CMC and its higher resolution counterpart the RGEM did a good job with the last storm. (Specifically with their depiction of the broader precip/ rain shield and precip types) It took the CMC a while to sniff out the storm but once it did it pretty much locked in. FWIW.

[txtwister78]

Regarding the GFS, we've seen this in some of the previous arctic blast in that when you introduce so much arctic air into the center of the country it can sometimes mess with/disrupt with the models interpretation of the 500mb? It's definitely pumping that ridge too quickly in the SW.

[Throckmorton]

The German ICON model's forecast for Austin Camp Mabry (Jan. 16th, 00Z run):

57–37...Saturday, 1/18
37–25...Sunday
30–20...Monday (snow; 0.6 inches)
26–21...Tuesday (snow; 2.8 new inches)
33–22...Wednesday (freezing rain; 0.09 inches of ice)
37–35...Thursday, 1/23 (rain)

[Stratton23]

Might have to watch thursday/ friday as well, CMC showing a couple of additional disturbances moving in behind the main system, cold air is still in place , this could be a multi day event possibly

[jaguars_22]

The coastal low is going to hurt us in Victoria again… it’s going to pull in warm air out of gulf! Cold rain for us again

[wxman22]

Might have to watch thursday/ friday as well, CMC showing a couple of additional disturbances moving in behind the main system, cold air is still in place , this could be a multi day event possibly

It wouldn't be the first time that the models showed a winterstorm as a one day event. But it ends up being a multi day storm. I've seen that happen a few times, the last time was probably the Feb 2023 ice storm?

[Quixotic]

I think you are correct. Don’t recall what the forecast was but definitely wasn’t 6”. I went into the woods after it tapered off and got some terrific photos of birds. Up over my Merrill hiking boots.

I happened to be at work that night just as the snow started. Within seconds the ground was covered, grass concrete and all. Beautiful snow as always.

Good stuff. I prefer the powder to the wet snow. Takes longer to melt off.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The coastal low is going to hurt us in Victoria again… it’s going to pull in warm air out of gulf! Cold rain for us again

Doubtful. Probably freezing rain, maybe sleet. Models aren’t worth a poop with temps yet