Texas Winter 2024-2025

Winter Weather Discussion

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PTrackerLA
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5821 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Jan 16, 2025 10:25 am

12z ICON keeps the winter storm in play

and almost 1" of ice along I-10 :eek:

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Last edited by PTrackerLA on Thu Jan 16, 2025 10:42 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5822 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Jan 16, 2025 10:29 am

12z ICON is the most amped run yet. Makes sense. :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5823 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Jan 16, 2025 10:32 am

12z ICON trends a bit towards the Euro at H5 but ends up looking better at the surface for TX/LA. Will it continue to correct, or will the Euro step back towards its older runs?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5824 Postby Gotwood » Thu Jan 16, 2025 10:34 am

Icon goes hard temps in the low singles to below zero in spots after the snow storm.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5825 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 16, 2025 10:36 am

Model Chaos, gotta love it! Without it, things would be pretty lame around here....
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5826 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Jan 16, 2025 10:38 am

bubba hotep wrote:12z ICON trends a bit towards the Euro at H5 but ends up looking better at the surface for TX/LA. Will it continue to correct, or will the Euro step back towards its older runs?


There is still a wild difference between them. The problem is the upper level low off the West Coast. Does it pick it up or not? I thought the 12z ICON looked to dig deeper than previous runs, actually.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5827 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 16, 2025 10:39 am

Gotwood wrote:Icon goes hard temps in the low singles to below zero in spots after the snow storm.


Moderate snow with temps in the teens from DFW to San Antonio, 850mb temps ranging -10 to -15C....really high ratio snow!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5828 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Jan 16, 2025 10:46 am

Some minor positive changes on the 12z GFS through 42hrs.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5829 Postby wxman22 » Thu Jan 16, 2025 10:46 am

This is the most aggressive run so far.

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Last edited by wxman22 on Thu Jan 16, 2025 10:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5830 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Jan 16, 2025 10:47 am

Ntxw wrote:While we wait on 12z models...DFW snuck in another freeze this morning. That's now 13 freezes for this month (consecutive at that) at the airport. This month alone will exceed all of last winter once done.

Upper 20s again here, cold is pretty easy to obtain this winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5831 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Jan 16, 2025 10:49 am

orangeblood wrote:
Gotwood wrote:Icon goes hard temps in the low singles to below zero in spots after the snow storm.


Moderate snow with temps in the teens from DFW to San Antonio, 850mb temps ranging -10 to -15C....really high ratio snow!!

The totals it shows 10:1 on tarrant county are impressive enough, but with those ratios you’d get dumped on. Hope the other models follow suit but I’m not holding my breath with all this inconsistency. Icon/cmc camp isnt one I have high confidence in on its own.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5832 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Jan 16, 2025 10:56 am

The GFS freeze up for y'all too?

Hopefully, it's the little gremlins trying to push that trough farther south.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5833 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Jan 16, 2025 10:56 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Gotwood wrote:Icon goes hard temps in the low singles to below zero in spots after the snow storm.


Moderate snow with temps in the teens from DFW to San Antonio, 850mb temps ranging -10 to -15C....really high ratio snow!!

The totals it shows 10:1 on tarrant county are impressive enough, but with those ratios you’d get dumped on. Hope the other models follow suit but I’m not holding my breath with all this inconsistency. Icon/cmc camp isnt one I have high confidence in on its own.

Yep, likely would be talking 20:1 with whatever falls up along I-20. Key is whether QPF is <0.1" or is it more like 0.5". Late week looks wetter but how much cold is left.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5834 Postby TropicalTundra » Thu Jan 16, 2025 11:03 am

The ICON also has Denver down to -30s Monday night. Would be the all-record low, no?

Hope it's lying, but it's brutally accurate with temps recently. Holy.
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Don't use my posts as forecast; I'm not a licensed meteorologist! I just endorse cold weather, alright?

All observations I note are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5835 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 16, 2025 11:03 am

Beware the ICON - it was second-worst of the models with the last event across SE TX and LA. Only the Canadian was worse. ICON was WAY too cold with the last event. Canadian was another level of way too cold...

The unlike cold of the ICON along the Gulf coast leads to an unlikely forecast of winter precip down here. I didn't verify the ICON for D-FW or Denver last week, but it was pretty bad down here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5836 Postby HurricaneBrain » Thu Jan 16, 2025 11:10 am

Here we go....
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5837 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Jan 16, 2025 11:10 am

wxman57 wrote:Beware the ICON - it was second-worst of the models with the last event across SE TX and LA. Only the Canadian was worse. ICON was WAY too cold with the last event. Canadian was another level of way too cold...

The unlike cold of the ICON along the Gulf coast leads to an unlikely forecast of winter precip down here. I didn't verify the ICON for D-FW or Denver last week, but it was pretty bad down here.


I'm mainly watching it for the 500mb forecast. The GFS just took a jump towards it with much more digging of the system.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5838 Postby BradKingK » Thu Jan 16, 2025 11:14 am

TropicalTundra wrote:The ICON also has Denver down to -30s Monday night. Would be the all-record low, no?

Hope it's lying, but it's brutally accurate with temps recently. Holy.


Would be an all-time low. Current lowest temp ever in Denver is -25 deg F.

https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/denver
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5839 Postby Stratton23 » Thu Jan 16, 2025 11:15 am

GFS definitely took a step in the right direction, CMC is about to be another big run, the differences at even 3 days out is comical
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5840 Postby Nederlander » Thu Jan 16, 2025 11:16 am

This is just gross.. Looking like SETX will miss out again. I don't understand the warmer temps
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