Texas Winter 2024-2025

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS still shows nada for precip, but does seem to be a little bit of an improvement in terms of shifting the 500mb pattern back west a bit. Still needs to shift a lot further west if it’s gonna capture that ULL though

[Ralph's Weather]

This is just gross.. Looking like SETX will miss out again. I don't understand the warmer temps

Def not set in stone on SE being warmer. I think SE TX is a big mix of freezing rain and sleet with some snow on northern sections of SE TX.

[wxman22]

The CMC is not backing down LOL.

[Stratton23]

CMC major winter storm, much more vigorous

[wxman22]

I will feel more confident about the potential storm if the Euro trends back towards the CMC and ICON.

[MississippiWx]

12z ICON and CMC are doubling down on the winter storm threat.

12z GFS is still nothing, but it did make a pretty significant shift at 500mb to digging energy and making the trof much sharper in the Southwest. Maybe a baby step in the right direction.

12z UKMET is on deck.

[wxman22]

Like I said last night with the last storm the CMC was too cold with temps. It took it a while but once it locked into the storm it didn’t really waver including its RGEM model also.

[Sambucol2024]

CMC major winter storm, much more vigorous

When does the EURO run again?

[Stratton23]

In an hour, that being said i definitely am encouraged by the GFS and the other model runs today so far, GFS has a burst of snow in se texas, while we got a long ways to go, their are definitely some improvements worth noted

[Portastorm]

In an hour, that being said i definitely am encouraged by the GFS and the other model runs today so far, GFS has a burst of snow in se texas, while we got a long ways to go, their are definitely some improvements worth noted

If it doesn't ice or snow in Austin next week, I'm holding you personally responsible strat!

[Snowman67]

Beware the ICON - it was second-worst of the models with the last event across SE TX and LA. Only the Canadian was worse. ICON was WAY too cold with the last event. Canadian was another level of way too cold...

The unlike cold of the ICON along the Gulf coast leads to an unlikely forecast of winter precip down here. I didn't verify the ICON for D-FW or Denver last week, but it was pretty bad down here.

Based on all of the information available, what are your thoughts at this time regarding SE Texas? I know that's a large area and there can be differences within this region. I'm in far north Harris county right by the Montgomery county border.

[Stratton23]

Portastorm im pulling out my magic 8 ball, it tells me texas will have snow om the ground next week, im putting in that snow request form to mother nature now! Hopefully she’ll hear me

[PTrackerLA]

12z GEFS @ 120hrs

[TomballEd]

Beware the ICON - it was second-worst of the models with the last event across SE TX and LA. Only the Canadian was worse. ICON was WAY too cold with the last event. Canadian was another level of way too cold...

The unlike cold of the ICON along the Gulf coast leads to an unlikely forecast of winter precip down here. I didn't verify the ICON for D-FW or Denver last week, but it was pretty bad down here.

But the ICON drops half an inch liquid equivalent of sleet and ice and would make MLK a 4 day weekend for me. Wishc**ting, but the new Canadian has a similar sensible weather result. Of course I trust the GFS more than the Canadian and German models, but it doesn't forecast what I want it to forecast. Been seeing people dismissing GFS runs as trash, sometimes with reasons, but usually because it doesn't show the result we want.

I'm 60, but I will still wi**cast about no school for a day or two in a school with very low test scores, drug use and frequent fights.

[TomballEd]

Beware the ICON - it was second-worst of the models with the last event across SE TX and LA. Only the Canadian was worse. ICON was WAY too cold with the last event. Canadian was another level of way too cold...

The unlike cold of the ICON along the Gulf coast leads to an unlikely forecast of winter precip down here. I didn't verify the ICON for D-FW or Denver last week, but it was pretty bad down here.

But the ICON drops half an inch liquid equivalent of sleet and ice and would make MLK a 4 day weekend for me. Wishc**ting, but the new Canadian has a similar sensible weather result. Of course I trust the GFS more than the Canadian and German models, but it doesn't forecast what I want it to forecast. Been seeing people dismissing GFS runs as trash, sometimes with reasons, but usually because it doesn't show the result we want.

I'm 60, but I will still wi**cast about no school for a day or two in a school with very low test scores, drug use and frequent fights.

If that word is verboten can add more asterisk or replace it with all asterisks. I'm not trying to annoy any mods.

[wxman57]

I'm plotting 12Z model temps for Houston. For 12Z Thursday, the GFS has 59 deg (love it!) but the Canadian has -2 deg (yeah, right). They're 60 degrees apart! I've never seen such a difference. Of course, the Canadian goes wild with snow and freezing rain across Texas. The GFS says "huh?". Gives a forecaster a lot of confidence. I know, for sure, that I would not trust Canadian temps of below zero in Houston next Thursday. GFS likely has too much warm air advection between the short waves. NBM has a couple light freezes here.

[PTrackerLA]

12z UKMET has the storm but temps are a few degrees warmer than 00z

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm plotting 12Z model temps for Houston. For 12Z Thursday, the GFS has 59 deg (love it!) but the Canadian has -2 deg (yeah, right). They're 60 degrees apart! I've never seen such a difference. Of course, the Canadian goes wild with snow and freezing rain across Texas. The GFS says "huh?". Gives a forecaster a lot of confidence. I know, for sure, that I would not trust Canadian temps of below zero in Houston next Thursday. GFS likely has too much warm air advection between the short waves. NBM has a couple light freezes here.

What is your opinion on how either of those is handling the 500mb pattern?

[wxman57]

None of the models is likely handling next week's upper flow pattern well. Don't trust any run - yet.

[Stratton23]

12z Euro back on board! Trended toward the ICON/ CMC a little bit