Deep South Winter 2024-2025

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Steve
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#181 Postby Steve » Fri Jan 17, 2025 9:29 am

Ivanhater wrote:I love to see it Steve!

Just watching closely for the dreaded North trend with the low bringing the rain line further north for the coast


Yeah we get that too often. It's hard to say for us what's going to happen because the low will be lifting up. I thought about driving back to New Orleans and hanging out with my kids, because it looks like they've got a chance for decent accumulation. But then I'd have to get back to Pensacola for work, and travel isn't going to be any fun on Wednesday. So I think I'm just going to stick around town. I live up by the Airport which I guess is about 10 miles north of the Gulf as the crow flies. I'm hoping we at least get a couple of inches though even a 1/2" would blanket everything in snow.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#182 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jan 17, 2025 9:35 am

Steve wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:I love to see it Steve!

Just watching closely for the dreaded North trend with the low bringing the rain line further north for the coast


Yeah we get that too often. It's hard to say for us what's going to happen because the low will be lifting up. I thought about driving back to New Orleans and hanging out with my kids, because it looks like they've got a chance for decent accumulation. But then I'd have to get back to Pensacola for work, and travel isn't going to be any fun on Wednesday. So I think I'm just going to stick around town. I live up by the Airport which I guess is about 10 miles north of the Gulf as the crow flies. I'm hoping we at least get a couple of inches though even a 1/2" would blanket everything in snow.


Yeah the airport has a good chance. I'm 9 mile area. Hopefully we don't have to sweat it and models lock in where they are now :ggreen:
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#183 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:06 am

Ivanhater wrote:
Steve wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:I love to see it Steve!

Just watching closely for the dreaded North trend with the low bringing the rain line further north for the coast


Yeah we get that too often. It's hard to say for us what's going to happen because the low will be lifting up. I thought about driving back to New Orleans and hanging out with my kids, because it looks like they've got a chance for decent accumulation. But then I'd have to get back to Pensacola for work, and travel isn't going to be any fun on Wednesday. So I think I'm just going to stick around town. I live up by the Airport which I guess is about 10 miles north of the Gulf as the crow flies. I'm hoping we at least get a couple of inches though even a 1/2" would blanket everything in snow.


Yeah the airport has a good chance. I'm 9 mile area. Hopefully we don't have to sweat it and models lock in where they are now :ggreen:


I’m not sure the immediate coast will even see solid rain with this because of the magnitude of cold air. It might be a mixed bag or even freezing rain, but not solid rain.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#184 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:09 am

We've been running on mathematical equations all this time. Do the balloons go up today or tomorrow? They should confirm what we already know. (Worst case scenario) a measurable winter weather event. ( best case) generational event spanning multiple days Monday morning through Thursday morning.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#185 Postby ArcticOutbreak1989 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:14 am

hurricanehunter69 wrote:We've been running on mathematical equations all this time. Do the balloons go up today or tomorrow? They should confirm what we already know. (Worst case scenario) a measurable winter weather event. ( best case) generational event spanning multiple days Monday morning through Thursday morning.

I’m hoping for a generational event, I was 15 when the superstorm of 93 hit and my area in South Ms got 5”-7” now my son is 15 and hoping he gets one of those memories that will last a lifetime, he’s a winter weather lover just like his pops. I remember seeing lightning during the snow, just unreal to think back on it.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#186 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:17 am

I am hoping the snow reaches far enough to bring some to the ATL area. Would be crazy if the snow was too far south!
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#187 Postby Steve » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:24 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:I am hoping the snow reaches far enough to bring some to the ATL area. Would be crazy if the snow was too far south!


06z GFS had y'all getting nominal amount with the band across SE GA (Thomasville > Valdosta > Brunswick > Savannah).

12Z Icon is running now out to 90 hours with snow starting to show up in central Texas/I-35 at that plot.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1712&fh=90

Pivotal is faster, so I'm going see what they have.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#188 Postby Steve » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:28 am

Icon 12z (Pivotal) has the snow actually farther south this time and pushing down into the Gulf. LA and Texas get the weather with that run, and it doesn't look that heavy.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

Here's it's total for 7am Thursday (no measurable east of Lake Charles gotta slide the bar to the end)
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... dpdt=&mc=#
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#189 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:30 am

Yikes. I hope that's not a trend for 12z models of suppression again
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#190 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:37 am

Please don’t let this be the time the Icon, of all models, decides to lead the way in something. (Although the GFS technically did it first). Hopefully the others stick to their guns.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#191 Postby Jag95 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:40 am

Until we get to that 72-hr window, I'm prepared for anything.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#192 Postby Steve » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:46 am

BigB0882 wrote:Please don’t let this be the time the Icon, of all models, decides to lead the way in something. (Although the GFS technically did it first). Hopefully the others stick to their guns.


Yeah. That run can kiss my ***. GFS is out to 48 hours on Pivotal. So we'll know shortly where it's going.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#193 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:57 am

12z GFS looking good so far
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#194 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:03 am

Huge HIT on 12z GFS. Thank God. As long as Canadian and euro stay on board
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#195 Postby Steve » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:05 am

Heaviest snow moved north but the whole coast to about Panama City gets between 1-3" which is through 106 (valid 1am Wednesday).
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#196 Postby Jag95 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:05 am

Lock that one down. No more runs.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#197 Postby Steve » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:07 am

Canadian (GDPS) has farther south height lines through 66 hours. We'll know in a few minutes on that.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&fh=66
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#198 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:10 am

12z GFS

Image

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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#199 Postby Steve » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:11 am

CMC going wild @ 96.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#200 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:16 am

Canadian coming in huge like the GFS, Steve!!
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