Texas Winter 2024-2025

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Steve
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6101 Postby Steve » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:47 am

Gotwood wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Gotwood wrote:At any rate looking like this is the peak of winter. So hopefully everyone can cash in something next week.


Don't think so. Pattern keeps reloading through the end of February. This is a pattern I haven't seen in a long time.

Honestly I feel like we hear this every year and it never really pans out down here I’m not getting my hopes up.


Gotshrimp for winter weather down there instead, huh?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6102 Postby Gotwood » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:48 am

Stratton23 wrote:The pattern does look to reload at the end of the month, already seeing signs of a stout - EPO ridge returning after the 27th, winter definitely isnt over after this event

Hope that’s the case this winter has been quite a bit colder than recent years.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6103 Postby JDawg512 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:48 am

Call me a pessimist but I am holding off on expectations for Austin at this time as most of the worst looks to be east. I'm not saying that we won't get frozen precipitation, but in terms of amounts, I'm going to sit back and wait and see. EWX currently has up to 50% probability of winter precipitation. Enough that I may need to enlarge my giant heat lamp on top of the Rain Cave. :dont:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6104 Postby Gotwood » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:49 am

Steve wrote:
Gotwood wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Don't think so. Pattern keeps reloading through the end of February. This is a pattern I haven't seen in a long time.

Honestly I feel like we hear this every year and it never really pans out down here I’m not getting my hopes up.


Gotshrimp for winter weather down there instead, huh?

I laughed
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6105 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:49 am

jaguars_22 wrote:I doubt it! The warm air comes off the gulf and blankets us with warmth!


Too early to throw in the towel.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6106 Postby Steve » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:49 am

UK a little stingy on the winter precipitation until 10am Tuesday. It's out to 99 hours on Pivotal

Edit - out to 102.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6107 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:54 am

jaguars_22 wrote:Thundersleet you guys would be ok towards Houston but us lower on the coast may not get much! What exactly happened on the Christmas 2004 miracle? Why did Victoria get so much snow and Houston didn’t? What kind of low pressure was that during that event? :)


I'm in Weimar due north of you. You're good. I've seen this play out before.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6108 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Jan 17, 2025 12:12 pm

Yep, NAM is quite a bit colder than GFS at 00z Tuesday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6109 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 17, 2025 12:23 pm

All good models are a go for snow up to I20. Outliers are UKMET and ICON but I can live with fringe models like that being outliers. The rest have snow of varying intensity up to DFW and Tyler. Ratios along I20 would be in the 15-20:1 range so instant accumulations and high ratios means whatever falls Tue will accumulate quickly.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6110 Postby Charleswachal » Fri Jan 17, 2025 12:32 pm

Well I just got done talking to my girlfriend and we may be chasing the winter storm. I'm excited so now I just need to figure out where it looks like the bullseye is going to be setting up.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6111 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Jan 17, 2025 12:41 pm

Charleswachal wrote:Well I just got done talking to my girlfriend and we may be chasing the winter storm. I'm excited so now I just need to figure out where it looks like the bullseye is going to be setting up.


It will be a nowcast situation. Where the bands set up is where the huge dumps will happen. No way to say where that is going to be.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6112 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 12:43 pm

12z Euro focuses the heaviest snow right over houston
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6113 Postby Charleswachal » Fri Jan 17, 2025 12:44 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Charleswachal wrote:Well I just got done talking to my girlfriend and we may be chasing the winter storm. I'm excited so now I just need to figure out where it looks like the bullseye is going to be setting up.


It will be a nowcast situation. Where the bands set up is where the huge dumps will happen. No way to say where that is going to be.


I agree 100%. I do have experience with driving in the snow as I used to live in the snow belts off of Western New York. Obviously it's one of those things where as things develop we will get ourselves in position and then hope for the best

I chase tornadoes Every Spring and have chased a couple of hurricanes but this will actually be the first time that I've gone chasing in a winter storm in Texas
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6114 Postby Charleswachal » Fri Jan 17, 2025 12:46 pm

Stratton23 wrote:12z Euro focuses the heaviest snow right over houston


Do you have any pictures to share? The website I use does not have the 12z on it yet
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6115 Postby cstrunk » Fri Jan 17, 2025 12:47 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:All good models are a go for snow up to I20. Outliers are UKMET and ICON but I can live with fringe models like that being outliers. The rest have snow of varying intensity up to DFW and Tyler. Ratios along I20 would be in the 15-20:1 range so instant accumulations and high ratios means whatever falls Tue will accumulate quickly.


Still wondering if we'll see N/NW shifts/expansion of precip in models by Sunday/Monday...
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6116 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 17, 2025 12:51 pm

cstrunk wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:All good models are a go for snow up to I20. Outliers are UKMET and ICON but I can live with fringe models like that being outliers. The rest have snow of varying intensity up to DFW and Tyler. Ratios along I20 would be in the 15-20:1 range so instant accumulations and high ratios means whatever falls Tue will accumulate quickly.


Still wondering if we'll see N/NW shifts/expansion of precip in models by Sunday/Monday...

I expect they will but was hoping the 12Z Euro would join the CMC and GFS on this run with that shift. We are getting close to NAM range, but for now the NAM isn't digging SW as much as other models which I don't love.
Last edited by Ralph's Weather on Fri Jan 17, 2025 12:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6117 Postby GeauxTigers » Fri Jan 17, 2025 12:56 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:All good models are a go for snow up to I20. Outliers are UKMET and ICON but I can live with fringe models like that being outliers. The rest have snow of varying intensity up to DFW and Tyler. Ratios along I20 would be in the 15-20:1 range so instant accumulations and high ratios means whatever falls Tue will accumulate quickly.


I'm north of I20 and east of I35, but pretty far north. Edge of Denton/Grayson. Is this too far for any accumulation at this time?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6118 Postby GeauxTigers » Fri Jan 17, 2025 12:59 pm

Charleswachal wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Charleswachal wrote:Well I just got done talking to my girlfriend and we may be chasing the winter storm. I'm excited so now I just need to figure out where it looks like the bullseye is going to be setting up.


It will be a nowcast situation. Where the bands set up is where the huge dumps will happen. No way to say where that is going to be.


I agree 100%. I do have experience with driving in the snow as I used to live in the snow belts off of Western New York. Obviously it's one of those things where as things develop we will get ourselves in position and then hope for the best

I chase tornadoes Every Spring and have chased a couple of hurricanes but this will actually be the first time that I've gone chasing in a winter storm in Texas


Hope you get to see a lot of it and have fun. Stay safe!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6119 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 17, 2025 1:00 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
cstrunk wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:All good models are a go for snow up to I20. Outliers are UKMET and ICON but I can live with fringe models like that being outliers. The rest have snow of varying intensity up to DFW and Tyler. Ratios along I20 would be in the 15-20:1 range so instant accumulations and high ratios means whatever falls Tue will accumulate quickly.


Still wondering if we'll see N/NW shifts/expansion of precip in models by Sunday/Monday...

I expect they will but was hoping the 12Z Euro would join the CMC and GFS on this run with that shift. We are getting close to NAM range, but for now the NAM isn't digging SW as much as other models which I don't love.


NAM actually is digging southwest more so than the other globals (mainly GFS/Euro), its closer to the CMC
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6120 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 1:05 pm

EC hates Houston. 8+ inches snow Tuesday and a low of 12 Wednesday. I need to get up north and reinforce my wall. Encouraging that the ICON went GFS and warmed a good bit, but it didn't do well last event. Canadian remains, well, Canadian. It's forecasting single digits in Houston and below freezing from early Tuesday to maybe Saturday. It's always way too cold for us (thankfully).
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