Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Steve]

Disinformation is an intentional lie or lies put forth by people with some kind of an agenda. Fwiw I’m not saying what you posted was that. It was the idea that frozen windmills were the source of the massive grid failure in 2021. We are not allowed to be political on this forum, so I’m not going to get into the specifics of why that lie was spread. However, I assume you trust the Texas Tribune which is pretty civic oriented. They did a good job of debunking that idea and how little of a factor the wind turbines were. They contributed some but it was a scapegoat for the massive failure of energy distribution.

[sphelps8681]

Disinformation is an intentional lie or lies put forth by people with some kind of an agenda. Fwiw I’m not saying what you posted was that. It was the idea that frozen windmills were the source of the massive grid failure in 2021. We are not allowed to be political on this forum, so I’m not going to get into the specifics of why that lie was spread. However, I assume you trust the Texas Tribune which is pretty civic oriented. They did a good job of debunking that idea and how little of a factor the wind turbines were. They contributed some but it was a scapegoat for the massive failure of energy distribution.

I am not trying to be political they can do what they want to do all I am doing is just stating facts of what happened in my area based on news that I was told in my area by my Entergy Co. If I am wrong I am wrong. But my area does not do rolling blackouts. I appreciate your reply. Who knows what really happened.

[txtwister78]

Moving on back to weather...18z GFS continues to put heaviest snowfall axis across central into east TX with a mix of sleet and freezing rain further south along and north of I-10.

[pwrdog]

It's well known what happened ... Therre have been documentaries and 100's of news stories.. Just a little investigation and you could know.. The wind energy was just a very small part of it..
Frozen gas lines that were not really protected (money not spent for a possible rare event) and the fact there were a lot of Maintenace going on simultaneously were the huge factors.. Power plants do most Maintenace in cooler season to get ready for the Texas hot summers.. Those maintenance will now be spaced out just in case... so they say?

[Cpv17]

Moving on back to weather...18z GFS continues to put heaviest snowfall axis across central into east TX with a mix of sleet and freezing rain further south along and north of I-10.

The GFS is too warm. Much of the area along and S of I-10 would be snow.

[Ralph's Weather]

Moving on back to weather...18z GFS continues to put heaviest snowfall axis across central into east TX with a mix of sleet and freezing rain further south along and north of I-10.

If you assume that GFS is too warm then you can add a bit to its Kuchera totals. It shows ratios around starting at like 8: before ending at 13:1. I am betting that ratios are more like 13-17:1 through the event but that all depends on temps. GFS is the warmest of the models at onset.

[txtwister78]

Moving on back to weather...18z GFS continues to put heaviest snowfall axis across central into east TX with a mix of sleet and freezing rain further south along and north of I-10.

The GFS is too warm. Much of the area along and S of I-10 would be snow.

Not necessarily. Remember the more moisture that is allowed to surge north out of the gulf, this means the possibility of a warm nose, especially the closer you get to the coast. That could impact precip types. Not saying the GFS solution is right, but keep in mind it's not about "warmer" surface temps for snow. It's what the temps are within the layers of the atmosphere as precip falls to surface.

[wxman22]

The 0Z NAM and RGEM will be interesting as they will be more in range of the storm tonight. And will also be our first glimpse of what the higher resolution models show for the storm. FWIW the RGEM already shows a large precip shield breaking out from South Texas into Oklahoma Monday night.

[TomballEd]

It's well known what happened ... Therre have been documentaries and 100's of news stories.. Just a little investigation and you could know.. The wind energy was just a very small part of it..
Frozen gas lines that were not really protected (money not spent for a possible rare event) and the fact there were a lot of Maintenace going on simultaneously were the huge factors.. Power plants do most Maintenace in cooler season to get ready for the Texas hot summers.. Those maintenance will now be spaced out just in case... so they say?

Not the gas lines, the gas compressors, which run on electricity. They weren't on the list of customers like PD, FD and hospitals. But the act of shedding load caused gas compressors to go down, which reduced generating capacity, rinse and repeat. I believe gas compressors near gas powered electric plants are now on the PD/FD/hospitals circuits that keep power during load shedding.

[TomballEd]

Now waiting for the 18Z Euro, other 18Z guidance less happy on snowfall totals for my house. Although if there isn't much snow, and temps don't drop to 10*F, and my palm trees don't die, the glass is always 50% half full.

[Texas Snowman]

Friendly moderator looks at some of today’s banter.

Clears his throat and reminds everyone:

“Moving on back to weather...”

[jaguars_22]

For us on the middle Texas coast what would we need to happen in order to get decent snow? The shortwave to dig more? A colder push?

[mmmmsnouts]

It's well known what happened ... Therre have been documentaries and 100's of news stories.. Just a little investigation and you could know.. The wind energy was just a very small part of it..
Frozen gas lines that were not really protected (money not spent for a possible rare event) and the fact there were a lot of Maintenace going on simultaneously were the huge factors.. Power plants do most Maintenace in cooler season to get ready for the Texas hot summers.. Those maintenance will now be spaced out just in case... so they say?

And meteorologically, that was like hitting the Powerball. A cold snap that severe and a storm that large, in the last couple weeks of the winter season. I've lived here over 20 years and that was both a top 3 snow event and 15 degrees colder than any other weather I've seen.

People are not good risk evaluators. I am confident the grid can handle the typical coldest day of winter stuff like we're getting next week. (Remember the average lowest temp for a DFW winter is around 16-17 degrees and we're not forecast to even get that low.) Feb 2021 was off the charts and we'll probably never see something like that again unless we all move to, like, Nebraska.

[Cpv17]

For us on the middle Texas coast what would we need to happen in order to get decent snow? The shortwave to dig more? A colder push?

The 12z Euro had 4-6” of snow for Victoria County.

[Stratton23]

18z Euro says kiss my butt GFS, no warm nose, mainly moderate- heavy snow for se texas, maybe a mix towards the coast

[dhweather]

Jester says 4-6" in HOUSTON. Is wxman57 gonna make it?

[jaguars_22]

What’s the latest euro show for Victoria?

[Ivanhater]

Anyone post 18z euro snow maps for Texas and east along the Gulf coast?

[txtwister78]

[txwxwatcher]

Jester says 4-6" in HOUSTON. Is wxman57 gonna make it?

Who is Jester?