Texas Winter 2024-2025

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TomballEd
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6181 Postby TomballEd » Fri Jan 17, 2025 6:33 pm

Stratton23 wrote:18z Euro says kiss my butt GFS, no warm nose, mainly moderate- heavy snow for se texas, maybe a mix towards the coast


Totals in the Houston metro?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6182 Postby dhweather » Fri Jan 17, 2025 6:35 pm

txwxwatcher wrote:
dhweather wrote:Jester says 4-6" in HOUSTON. Is wxman57 gonna make it?

Who is Jester?


My nickname for the ECMWF. After adamantly claiming a foot of snow for me for five days, I got < .5 inches

The King of models is the Jester
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6183 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 6:36 pm

Tomballed 4-8 inches on the 18z euro
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6184 Postby txwxwatcher » Fri Jan 17, 2025 6:37 pm

dhweather wrote:
txwxwatcher wrote:
dhweather wrote:Jester says 4-6" in HOUSTON. Is wxman57 gonna make it?

Who is Jester?


My nickname for the ECMWF. After adamantly claiming a foot of snow for me for five days, I got < .5 inches

The King of models is the Jester


Was is claiming a foot all the way up until the system arrived?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6185 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Jan 17, 2025 6:42 pm

Some interesting changes at 500mb on the 18z GFS, but didn't really trigger any significant changes at the surface. Similar changes on the 18z Euro but more subtle.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6186 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Jan 17, 2025 6:43 pm

18z Euro. Where can I cash this check?

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6187 Postby sphelps8681 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 6:46 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:18z Euro. Where can I cash this check?


https://i.imgur.com/Pla04xp.png


That over 6 in for me. Don't like snow. I always loose power and it is just so messy. Pretty but not my cup of tea. SE TX.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6188 Postby Gotwood » Fri Jan 17, 2025 6:55 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:18z Euro. Where can I cash this check?

https://i.imgur.com/Pla04xp.png

If I get dry slotted like that I’m going to puke.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6189 Postby longhornweather » Fri Jan 17, 2025 6:59 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:18z Euro. Where can I cash this check?


https://i.imgur.com/Pla04xp.png


That over 6 in for me. Don't like snow. I always loose power and it is just so messy. Pretty but not my cup of tea. SE TX.


This almost completely misses Austin and areas just north. Not great!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6190 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:06 pm

longhornweather wrote:
sphelps8681 wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:18z Euro. Where can I cash this check?


https://i.imgur.com/Pla04xp.png


That over 6 in for me. Don't like snow. I always loose power and it is just so messy. Pretty but not my cup of tea. SE TX.


This almost completely misses Austin and areas just north. Not great!

It's possible, Euro say south, Canadian good hit and GFS a solid hit. Canadian has been most consistent. GFS trended towards Canadian today. Euro trending south.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6191 Postby MGC » Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:22 pm

While the current trend is positive with the models, I will remain skeptical of their outputs. Once the shortwave over the Pacific moves ashore and is sampled by the upper air network and that data if ingested into the model will I be more acceptable to their solution. I am hoping for snow just don't want Lucy pulling the ball out the way. People at Walmart this afternoon were acting like a hurricane was coming. Better get your supplies ready ASAP. It has been since 2017 since snow fell here in Pass Christian.......MGC
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6192 Postby sphelps8681 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:36 pm

MGC wrote:While the current trend is positive with the models, I will remain skeptical of their outputs. Once the shortwave over the Pacific moves ashore and is sampled by the upper air network and that data if ingested into the model will I be more acceptable to their solution. I am hoping for snow just don't want Lucy pulling the ball out the way. People at Walmart this afternoon were acting like a hurricane was coming. Better get your supplies ready ASAP. It has been since 2017 since snow fell here in Pass Christian.......MGC


Did all my prep today. Food, other supplies and gas for generator. No problems thank goodness,
I know cold weather or snow is just like a hurricane for us in se tx. We don't want either one. We are not prepared.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6193 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:40 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:
MGC wrote:While the current trend is positive with the models, I will remain skeptical of their outputs. Once the shortwave over the Pacific moves ashore and is sampled by the upper air network and that data if ingested into the model will I be more acceptable to their solution. I am hoping for snow just don't want Lucy pulling the ball out the way. People at Walmart this afternoon were acting like a hurricane was coming. Better get your supplies ready ASAP. It has been since 2017 since snow fell here in Pass Christian.......MGC


Did all my prep today. Food, other supplies and gas for generator. No problems thank goodness,
I know cold weather or snow is just like a hurricane for us in se tx. We don't want either one. We are not prepared.


I think a good amount of people are very much looking forward to snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6194 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:44 pm

Initial front is crossing Oklahoma, will swing through NTX tonight and the rest of the state tomorrow morning. It will be reinforcing shots of cold the next few days as we get deeper into the colder air mass.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6195 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:47 pm

Ntxw wrote:Initial front is crossing Oklahoma, will swing through NTX tonight and the rest of the state tomorrow morning. It will be reinforcing shots of cold the next few days as we get deeper into the colder air mass.

https://i.imgur.com/TVZ5DVO.png

https://i.imgur.com/RBQwO6T.gif


What’s the MJO looking like?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6196 Postby sphelps8681 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:47 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
sphelps8681 wrote:
MGC wrote:While the current trend is positive with the models, I will remain skeptical of their outputs. Once the shortwave over the Pacific moves ashore and is sampled by the upper air network and that data if ingested into the model will I be more acceptable to their solution. I am hoping for snow just don't want Lucy pulling the ball out the way. People at Walmart this afternoon were acting like a hurricane was coming. Better get your supplies ready ASAP. It has been since 2017 since snow fell here in Pass Christian.......MGC


Did all my prep today. Food, other supplies and gas for generator. No problems thank goodness,
I know cold weather or snow is just like a hurricane for us in se tx. We don't want either one. We are not prepared.


I think a good amount of people are very much looking forward to snow.


I know but where I live power goes out. Heck it does not even need to be bad weather it will go out with sun out. This stuff just makes it worse. But I am glad there are those that can enjoy this weather. Glad for ya.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6197 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:48 pm

Before we get to Monday Tuesday I wanna see if our flizzards this weekend overperform. The RAP has about an inch here which is interesting. Nobody's really been talking about accumulation

Also it rained more today than I thought it would.. looking for signs there is more moisture than expected ahead of the bigger storm
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6198 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 8:07 pm

Brent wrote:Before we get to Monday Tuesday I wanna see if our flizzards this weekend overperform. The RAP has about an inch here which is interesting. Nobody's really been talking about accumulation

Also it rained more today than I thought it would.. looking for signs there is more moisture than expected ahead of the bigger storm


I’m curious if there’s still another cold snap expected later this month.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6199 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 8:18 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:Before we get to Monday Tuesday I wanna see if our flizzards this weekend overperform. The RAP has about an inch here which is interesting. Nobody's really been talking about accumulation

Also it rained more today than I thought it would.. looking for signs there is more moisture than expected ahead of the bigger storm


I’m curious if there’s still another cold snap expected later this month.


EPO forecast is trending positive toward the end of the month so looks like we may be headed for a break from winter as we closeout the final week of January and move into February. I'm ready for it personally.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6200 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Jan 17, 2025 8:33 pm

Hopefully that break doesnt last long, warm weather sucks
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