Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Steve]

0Z 12-km NAM Steve is referencing from 12 pm Monday - 6 am Tuesday. Plenty more mesoscale model watching over the next couple days.

https://i.imgur.com/x7rlgGd.gif

That’s some wintry precip (never understood why they took the ‘e’ out of winter. Icon out to 72 hours. Looks like moisture coming back up instead of staying suppressed. We’ll see in a few minutes. Gonna check Pivotal.

[txtwister78]

0z RGEM

[txtwister78]

0z RGEM

[Steve]

Icon smacks houston and all of south la so far. That’s an upgrade

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[Gotwood]

I’m putting all my chips into the RDPS

[Ntxw]

I’m putting all my chips into the RDPS

Rgem usually is reflective to what the coming Canadian run will be basically higher resolution brother. So we can make a good guess what the 0z CMC will do.

[Gotwood]

I’m putting all my chips into the RDPS

Rgem usually is reflective to what the coming Canadian run will be basically higher resolution brother.

I know but I need hope lol

[Steve]

I’m putting all my chips into the RDPS

Canadian rapid deterministic right?

[Gotwood]

I’m putting all my chips into the RDPS

Canadian rapid deterministic right?

Yeah it has stuck to its guns for a pretty much state wide system guess we will know soon enough. Would really suck to have all this cold air and nothing fall from the sky.

[Ralph's Weather]

Canadian can be good for Arctic blasts so I give it credence especially when it locks in like it has on this one.

[Quixotic]

Judging by the wind change between Bowie and WF, the front is early.

[Steve]

Gfs rolling in at 75 hours on pivotal. Ice down to San Antonio and snow much of east Texas.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?fh=75

GFS has had that 540 height line north of a lot of other models. Out to 84 hours and that gulf surge is coming.

[IcyTundra]

Stubborn warm nose on the 0Z GFS

[snownado]

GFS is pretty far north with the frontogenesis band, but still stops just shy of affecting DFW.

Gotta watch this BTW, because frontogenesis bands have a tendency to massively overachieve even with relatively limited moisture.

[Steve]

GFS a beast.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 800&fh=108

[Steve]

CMC out to 72 hours. About to get good and interesting.

[wxman22]

Is the CMC locking in, like it did with the last storm? With last Thursdays winterstorm the CMC & RGEM did a good job when predicting that the precip shield was going to be larger than what most of the global models were showing at the time. With the upcoming storm the CMC seems to be consistently hinting at the same possibility fwiw.

[Stratton23]

terrible trends tonight in the models

[ThunderSleetDreams]

terrible trends tonight in the models

No it isn’t. Yall hang on output maps too much.

[Stratton23]

ThunderSleetDreams for snow for se texas it is, stronger warm nose is the trend, thats not good