Deep South Winter 2024-2025

[Ivanhater]

Hot off the press. 06z GFS is back to mostly snow

Full weather nerd has been activated



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[otowntiger]

Hot off the press. 06z GFS is back to mostly snow

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250118/5f1f6828315324a6d5d32aea39b4b5d5.jpg

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And a LOT of it!

[Jag95]

New Orleans is talking big numbers. We're in the 72-hr window now. Still a little nervous it might fall apart, but if I don't get at least one inch this is a massive bust.

[Ivanhater]

New Orleans is talking historic numbers. We're in the 72-hr window now. Still a little nervous it might fall apart, but if I don't get at least one inch this is a massive bust.

I thought for sure it was falling apart when GFS went to no storm but that looks off the table. Euro ensemble has been the best so far and if they stay today, we are looking at a historic event

[Jag95]

New Orleans is talking historic numbers. We're in the 72-hr window now. Still a little nervous it might fall apart, but if I don't get at least one inch this is a massive bust.

I thought for sure it was falling apart when GFS went to no storm but that looks off the table. Euro ensemble has been the best so far and if they stay today, we are looking at a historic event

Well I updated my post from 'historic' to 'big' so as to not be so carried away because they have had 8 inches over there before, but 12 inches would be historic.

[Ivanhater]

New Orleans is talking historic numbers. We're in the 72-hr window now. Still a little nervous it might fall apart, but if I don't get at least one inch this is a massive bust.

I thought for sure it was falling apart when GFS went to no storm but that looks off the table. Euro ensemble has been the best so far and if they stay today, we are looking at a historic event

Well I updated my post from 'historic' to 'big' so as to not be so carried away because they have had 8 inches over there before, but 12 inches would be historic.

If the GFS Euro and Canadian are right, I think based on the stats you posted for us in Mobile and Pensacola, that would be the all time record?

The good thing so far, I haven't seen really any model bring the full rain line north on the coast

[Ivanhater]

Comparing the overnight Euro ensemble mean to yesterday afternoon, it just keeps getting better and better..

1st is overnight
2nd is yesterday afternoon
3rd is 1 day ago



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[Jag95]

I thought for sure it was falling apart when GFS went to no storm but that looks off the table. Euro ensemble has been the best so far and if they stay today, we are looking at a historic event

Well I updated my post from 'historic' to 'big' so as to not be so carried away because they have had 8 inches over there before, but 12 inches would be historic.

If the GFS Euro and Canadian are right, I think based on the stats you posted for us in Mobile and Pensacola, that would be the all time record?

The good thing so far, I haven't seen really any model bring the full rain line north on the coast

Yeah, latest discussion from Mobile isn't quite as enthusiastic as NOLA. They're leaning 2-5 (which would still challenge the record) with mixing on the immediate coast. Interesting that Houston and NOLA have 8"-12" snowfall records while anywhere east of them are sitting in the 2-4 inch range. Probably those pesky warm noses.

[otowntiger]

New Orleans is talking historic numbers. We're in the 72-hr window now. Still a little nervous it might fall apart, but if I don't get at least one inch this is a massive bust.

I thought for sure it was falling apart when GFS went to no storm but that looks off the table. Euro ensemble has been the best so far and if they stay today, we are looking at a historic event

Well I updated my post from 'historic' to 'big' so as to not be so carried away because they have had 8 inches over there before, but 12 inches would be historic.

. When did New Orleans get 8” of snow???

[Jag95]

I thought for sure it was falling apart when GFS went to no storm but that looks off the table. Euro ensemble has been the best so far and if they stay today, we are looking at a historic event

Well I updated my post from 'historic' to 'big' so as to not be so carried away because they have had 8 inches over there before, but 12 inches would be historic.

. When did New Orleans get 8” of snow???

Way back in 1895, but I remember not that long ago where the north shore got 8" via a freak ULL. Video's on YouTube, at least it used to be. We didn't even get a flake over here.

<edit> 2008. This link says 4-6 inches, but I remember seeing reports up to 8 on the north shore.
https://wgno.com/weather/will-new-orlea ... oric-snow/

[Ivanhater]

Interesting snippet from Mob/Pen disco

They do seem to be biting on the warm nose. Especially is precip is falling in the afternoon. Also there is no mention of rain at all

To further complicate matters, Tuesday`s temperatures will obviously
have a direct impact on the precip type, while the precip will have
an impact on temps. If we realize any snow falling prior/during our
typical peak heating hours, this will decrease our warming,
potentially preventing us to warm above freezing. Additionally, with
expansive cloud cover and northerly winds, I`m not too confident
that we will warm the 10 degrees noted in the latest NBM (which came
in slightly warmer for temps through the period). Given the
uncertainty, a blend of the previous forecast and the latest NBM was
used for temperatures on Tuesday, to try and mitigate a flip-
flopping of p-types since we`re still 4 days out.

[MississippiWx]

6z Euro, anyone?

[Ivanhater]

6z Euro, anyone?

Not yet, but the last 3 euro ensemble mean really tell the story posted above. Don't think the Euro ensemble mean has ever shown that for the Gulf coast 4 days out

[Ralph's Weather]

6Z Euro still has 6 inches generally for with LA and a few inches across the whole Northern Gulf Coast. 6Z GFS keeps the snow north of I10 with a mix on the coast, it approaches a foot in spots. 0Z Canadian is colder than GFS but it has a substantial warm nose so the coast is mix with heavy snow inland.
Personally I would beware of believing the Euro as a Gulf low will bring in warm air at the mid levels. If the low is weaker then maybe there will be less if a warm nose and instead of heavy snow inland all south of I20 get moderate snow. I doubt you get both heavy snow and snow to the coast.

[Ivanhater]

Thanks for the info Ralph. Feels like we are in uncharted territory over here

[Steve]

06z euro run.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

Got the later in the week hit for points farther north.

[Ralph's Weather]

Thanks for the info Ralph. Feels like we are in uncharted territory over here

Within 100 hours and models all show accumulating snow for the Florida Panhandle and an ice storm from Tallahassee to Jacksonville to Charleston. Wonder if the recent Big Bend hurricanes will mitigate possible tree damage in that area since weak limbs likely have been pruned by hurricane winds.

[Steve]

Probably to some extent. But others are still going to snap and fall from that extra weight. I thought about heading to New Orleans for a few days to get in on some of those many inches of snow. But I think I’m gonna stay in Florida since nobody is here to run the water when it gets low 20’s.

[Ivanhater]

Euro ensemble mean....you can be sure this has never been seen before

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[Ralph's Weather]

For anyone chasing snow I would recommend anywhere in the Lufkin, TX to Alexandria, LA stretch where I would forecast 4-8 inches with isolated 10+ inches. That will be a wet snow. If you prefer the very rare southern powder snow then head further north from Tyler, TX to Jackson, MS to see 2-4 inches of powder with an isolated 6 inch spot under a good band. Up there the snow will accumulate fast with temps in the low to mid 20s.