Texas Winter 2024-2025

[3090]

12K NAM actually did pretty well with the warm nose placement with the system last week, and it seems to have it farther inland than any other model right for this upcoming event. I'd be nervous about mixing if I was south of I10.

Yeah, this is my concern. I am JUST south of I-12 east of BR (think I-10) and the NAM is not my preferred solution right now.

If u r looking at the NAM12 u r wasting your time at this point.

[Ralph's Weather]

It also pushes the 2" contour up into DFW! Lock it in!

Best news I've heard all day!!

Yeah I keep thinking of last week when Oklahoma was really not going to get anything and then 2 days before or less all of a sudden everything moved North and I'm not remembering which model had that first.

I think it was GFS first. I am still expecting it.

[Brent]

Best news I've heard all day!!

Yeah I keep thinking of last week when Oklahoma was really not going to get anything and then 2 days before or less all of a sudden everything moved North and I'm not remembering which model had that first.

I think it was GFS first. I am still expecting it.

Yeah it was very weird here. Like even during the day south of here was doing better and then once it got dark the snow just never stopped. We didn't even have a warning til it was already snowing

The GFS may have hinted at it but I think it just sort of happened

But I've also seen so many storms do it before so hopefully

[GeauxTigers]

This is more of a stronger Canadian front than Arctic air. Temps are above zero all the way north to southern Montana and southern North Dakota. No extreme cold up there.

I guess the "Siberian" air had a change of plans.

It's just my prayers being answered...

So now there’s no Siberian air, either?

[SoupBone]

I see a lot of people saying Houston metro from the latest GFS but what does NW Harris to the Woodlands look like?

[Stratton23]

18z Euro has several really heavy snow bands, one sets yp right over i-10 from houston to katy, and that drops 7-10 inches, another band NE of the metro drops a foot, very interesting

[cstrunk]

Just love that the last storm trended NW and this one is holding strong to I-10. And dry air is gonna win out up towards I-20.

[sphelps8681]

18z Euro has several really heavy snow bands, one sets yp right over i-10 from houston to katy, and that drops 7-10 inches, another band NE of the metro drops a foot, very interesting

When you say NE of the metro where are you speaking of?

[wxman57]

Arguably the closest setup to this event is from February 1895. Position of the low is forecasted to be pretty close to the same place and temps will be very similar.

I wouldn't even remotely compare it to 1895, an airmass so cold that Galveston Bay had 4 inches of ice on it. Nope. It doesn't even match 2021 for temperatures.

[Ralph's Weather]

Just love that the last storm trended NW and this one is holding strong to I-10. And dry air is gonna win out up towards I-20.

Still time and all we need is a little bit of moisture and we get a few inches quickly. Low to mid 20s and no warm nose equals high ratios. I still think this trends NW. Lufkin to Jacksonville could get clobbered with us along 20 getting our share.

[wxman57]

I see a lot of people saying Houston metro from the latest GFS but what does NW Harris to the Woodlands look like?

18Z GFS has The Woodlands in the main core of the snow with 3-5" of snow. It has very little snow inside Beltway 8 and none inside 610. Of course, it's almost certainly wrong, as are most models from this far out.

[txwxwatcher]

I see a lot of people saying Houston metro from the latest GFS but what does NW Harris to the Woodlands look like?

18Z GFS has The Woodlands in the main core of the snow with 3-5" of snow. It has very little snow inside Beltway 8 and none inside 610. Of course, it's almost certainly wrong, as are most models from this far out.

Can you help me understand this map, then? It’s the 18z GFS 10:1 total snowfall map, and I interpreted it to show 5 inches or so in metro Houston. What am I missing?

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... -imp&fh=72

[rwfromkansas]

Just love that the last storm trended NW and this one is holding strong to I-10. And dry air is gonna win out up towards I-20.

You don’t get a north trend when you need it. I give up for this one, but I will be mad if Houston gets six inches and I got 3 and much got zip last time.

[Brent]

Well our flurries dried up today... Probably not a good sign for the north people

I mean im good with this storm because we've never been in it really but I do hope we get another one before the winter is over because it's still only January. Lot of winter climo left here

[Ralph's Weather]

Just love that the last storm trended NW and this one is holding strong to I-10. And dry air is gonna win out up towards I-20.

You don’t get a north trend when you need it. I give up for this one, but I will be mad if Houston gets six inches and I got 3 and much got zip last time.

I'll keep the hope just need a little moisture in these temps. Models do not look bad at lead for those east of I35.

[3090]

I see a lot of people saying Houston metro from the latest GFS but what does NW Harris to the Woodlands look like?

18Z GFS has The Woodlands in the main core of the snow with 3-5" of snow. It has very little snow inside Beltway 8 and none inside 610. Of course, it's almost certainly wrong, as are most models from this far out.

Okie dokie!

[TomballEd]

This is the latest sounding data from the 18z GFS for Tuesday morning at 9 near Beaumont. This is the perfect sounding for snow lovers. No melting layer present at all. Lot of vorticity advection taking place with this system over SE Texas/Louisiana too so the possibility of thundersnow exists in some of the heavier bands. Get ready folks!

https://i.imgur.com/NfvfC0W.png

You want a bit more of the saturated layer colder than -10C for optimal dendrite growth.

[sphelps8681]

NWS Lake Charles is doing a live briefing and said my area will not be above freezing for about 4 days. That sucks.

[PTrackerLA]

NWS Lake Charles is doing a live briefing and said my area will not be above freezing for about 4 days. That sucks.

I don't think it will be that long but there's a very good chance we stay below freezing Wednesday and only reach the mid 30's Thursday with another hard freeze Thursday night. Schools will likely be closed the entire week as black ice from melting snow will STILL be a serious concern Friday morning. The duration of how long the snow and ice could stick around is unprecedented in my 40 years here.

[captainbarbossa19]

Arguably the closest setup to this event is from February 1895. Position of the low is forecasted to be pretty close to the same place and temps will be very similar.

I wouldn't even remotely compare it to 1895, an airmass so cold that Galveston Bay had 4 inches of ice on it. Nope. It doesn't even match 2021 for temperatures.

Good point on the ice in 1895. I mainly was thinking about sounding temps though. I think they look better than 2021 where it was mainly a sleet event for SE TX.