Texas Winter 2024-2025

[txtwister78]

[Ralph's Weather]

How good are high res models at 48+ hours.

Experience with these will beat models typically. Models are all over the place still. Hi res last week predicted 6 inches for me last Thu night and we never got a flake. Key is to watch QPF and you will have to use experience on temps. Models do not handle temp profiles well even at this range. Do not believe models showing a shallow warm nose. And do not believe you will win on a profile the straddles 0C. That WAA will always win in a surface low driven events and CAA always wins with an upper low.

[txtwister78]

CMC

[captainbarbossa19]

CMC

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/total_snow_kuchera/1737244800/1737525600-guuOzz0xuw4.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/sleet_total/1737244800/1737525600-SAfqiaAOdtQ.png

CMC has 2 inches of sleet and over a foot of snow in places. I know it's normally not good but still wow.

[Ralph's Weather]

CMC

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/total_snow_kuchera/1737244800/1737525600-guuOzz0xuw4.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/sleet_total/1737244800/1737525600-SAfqiaAOdtQ.png

CMC has 2 inches of sleet and over a foot of snow in places. I know it's normally not good but still wow.

It can have a cold bias especially with cold feedback loops over snow covered areas but overall it is a very respectable model. Euro struggles with resolving details of events in the South. GFS can give general idea but is too coarse of a model for details. Canadian has a better resolution and is the best global in events which differ far from clime norms.

[TropicalTundra]

That snowband out west looks pretty darn heavy. Any chance it hits y’all up there?

[Gotwood]

That snowband out west looks pretty darn heavy. Any chance it hits y’all up there?

Praying for something

[Stratton23]

Euro 00z clobbers houston with a foot of snow lol

[gpsnowman]

According to Fox 4 our flizzard out west might make it here soon. Guess I'll stay up.

[Fifty Rock]

Coming down pretty good out here wind blown snow.

Edit: currently a dusting and still coming down with about 20 mph winds.

[Edwards Limestone]

System seems too progressive for these high totals. Globals are struggling, hopefully high res can provide more clarity because NWS is playing it very conservative in central TX so far.

[Gotwood]

Coming down pretty good out here wind blown snow.

Edit: currently a dusting and still coming down with about 20 mph winds.

It was moving east then stalled when it got close to me haha

[txwxwatcher]

Houston ABC pro met Travis Herzog says to essentially discard the notion of a warm nose per his Facebook post an hour ago:

SATURDAY NIGHT WINTER STORM UPDATE

It is looking increasingly likely that Southeast Texas will end up with a blanket of snow on the ground Tuesday. What may start as freezing rain over Houston Monday night could quickly change over to sleet and then snow. This changeover will happen quicker north of I-10 (and could just be all snow) and happen slower south of I-10 (with snow still possible but not guaranteed along the coast).

We believe 1-3” of snow is likely for most with over 6” possible where heavy bands develop. The placement of those heavy bands is impossible to predict ahead of time. Regardless, this is looking truly historic.

Keep in mind that Houston’s largest snowfall in modern times was a little over 4 inches in February 1960. There have been larger snowfalls in other parts of Southeast Texas since then, like when over a foot of snow fell southwest of Houston on Christmas Eve in 2004. The size and scope of this winter weather event could land in the top 3 of recorded history in Southeast Texas.

The only way it doesn’t happen is if a “warm nose” of air just above freezing sneaks in about a mile above the ground to turn the snow into sleet. This scenario is depicted in the “NAM Model” graphic, and while that is still possible, it is looking less likely from Houston northward and eastward.

By Sunday afternoon we should have high resolution model data to help further refine our snowfall forecast. Please be advised that where these larger snow amounts occur, travel could be nearly impossible until Thursday or Friday.

We’ll keep you posted: abc13.com/forecast

[Fifty Rock]

Coming down pretty good out here wind blown snow.

Edit: currently a dusting and still coming down with about 20 mph winds.

It was moving east then stalled when it got close to me haha

You may still see a little yourself. It’s just a little flizzard now, but the ground is bright white outside

[gpsnowman]

Coming down pretty good out here wind blown snow.

Edit: currently a dusting and still coming down with about 20 mph winds.

It has gotten cloudy here but radar looks like band is moving southeast from Grand Prairie. The Flizzard of 2025 has been a dud. On to the next one.

[Fifty Rock]

Coming down pretty good out here wind blown snow.

Edit: currently a dusting and still coming down with about 20 mph winds.

It has gotten cloudy here but radar looks like band is moving southeast from Grand Prairie. The Flizzard of 2025 has been a dud. On to the next one.

The band is West of Weatherford and moving South as it dissipates. We had 30 minutes of a nice wind blown snow.

[Gotwood]

Coming down pretty good out here wind blown snow.

Edit: currently a dusting and still coming down with about 20 mph winds.

It has gotten cloudy here but radar looks like band is moving southeast from Grand Prairie. The Flizzard of 2025 has been a dud. On to the next one.

The band is West of Weatherford and moving South as it dissipates. We had 30 minutes of a nice wind blown snow.

Few flurries but nothing wild here. Looks like it’s dissipating.

[Fifty Rock]

https://ibb.co/4JfD0gR
https://ibb.co/9W4RbvM
https://ibb.co/ypmJdpR

[gpsnowman]

https://ibb.co/4JfD0gR
https://ibb.co/9W4RbvM
https://ibb.co/ypmJdpR

Nice little surprise.

[Fifty Rock]

https://ibb.co/4JfD0gR
https://ibb.co/9W4RbvM
https://ibb.co/ypmJdpR

Nice little surprise.

Very nice while it lasted. Need more before and after like these.. https://ibb.co/kD1fTqC
https://ibb.co/zGR9MFf