Texas Winter 2024-2025

[PineyWoods]

I lived in Spring Branch in 1973. We had never seen snow before and it snowed 3 times. Then we moved to Oregon and after 10 months of winter there my dad moved us back to Texas. I do notice now that Shreveport NWS has Tyler at a chance of snow Monday night/Tuesday morning. Maybe we'll get a little dusting from the I10 Storm. Be safe out there and enjoy it.

[Brent]

GFS, EC, and NBM are trending colder for Houston with no warm nose aloft - heavier snow Tuesday. Workers have abandoned my two walls and are fleeing for their lives!

Is there any chance this ends up being similar to the March Superstorm of ‘93 for some in the Deep South and Gulf Coast? It reminds me so much of what I remember from back then, the only thing I see missing is the severe weather potential in Florida.

No. I was working that storm in '93. Nothing like it.

Yeah my friends back east are pretty upset the storm kind of falls apart

Total opposite of 93. Still the record holder over there in a lot of places

Houston into Louisiana may get more snow than anyone

[3090]

I still think I10 is mostly sleet. Gonna have to get further away from the coast to be safe. 190 looks like a good centerline for the heavier snow. Even along I20 I feel comfortable that we have a shot at some very quickly accumulating showers though they will be spotty.

Your forecast for the I-10 corridor in Louisiana is certainly in contrast with all of the major guidance, NWS offices and many professional mets.

Models besides Euro all have the warm nose. It's a matter of a degree at around 850 whether I10 is a few inches of snow vs a sleet mess. Big potential is there for snow but it's cutting it close. All I'm saying is I would want to be away from the coast. Those skewTs show all snow is not a safe bet. I have experienced this many times in E TX over the years and you lose to the warm nose more often than you win as WAA is very often under modeled. I just urge caution in getting excited about borderline events. They can boom occasionally but they can bust really hard also. Basically y'all need the low to stay south to avoid being in WAA. If it stays south then I10 is in line for 6 inches.

I certainly understand all of your sentiments, but you also need to look at trends. And you also need to consider the wet bulbing. All of the cards are on the table. It is go time now.

[Fifty Rock]

GFS, EC, and NBM are trending colder for Houston with no warm nose aloft - heavier snow Tuesday. Workers have abandoned my two walls and are fleeing for their lives!

Well never in my lifetime ( or 20 years here and knowing you) would I have thought I would hear this. Oh my gracious

Maybe he was abducted by aliens…

[bbowman7]

Now that we are getting closer was hoping someone would give me an update on the Lufkin/Diboll area. I try and follow your maps and all of the talks but just cannot do that yet!

[Ralph's Weather]

I lived in Spring Branch in 1973. We had never seen snow before and it snowed 3 times. Then we moved to Oregon and after 10 months of winter there my dad moved us back to Texas. I do notice now that Shreveport NWS has Tyler at a chance of snow Monday night/Tuesday morning. Maybe we'll get a little dusting from the I10 Storm. Be safe out there and enjoy it.

SHV has maintained a chance of snow up here for the past couple days. There will be snow showers around so some up here could get a couple inches but it will be spotty.

[Snowman67]

GFS, EC, and NBM are trending colder for Houston with no warm nose aloft - heavier snow Tuesday. Workers have abandoned my two walls and are fleeing for their lives!

What is the warm nose looking like for Angleton?

It's there at the start around 6pm tomorrow but gone after sunrise Tuesday. In all my 45 years in Houston, I've never seen such good support for heavy snow. That includes the 2004 Christmas miracle snow.

Ok. After reading that I will allow myself to get excited.

[ArcticOutbreak1989]

Is there any chance this ends up being similar to the March Superstorm of ‘93 for some in the Deep South and Gulf Coast? It reminds me so much of what I remember from back then, the only thing I see missing is the severe weather potential in Florida.

No. I was working that storm in '93. Nothing like it.

Yeah my friends back east are pretty upset the storm kind of falls apart

Total opposite of 93. Still the record holder over there in a lot of places

Houston into Louisiana may get more snow than anyone

I think areas in South Ms and South Al could see similar or higher snow totals than the ‘93 storm. I remember Birmingham got absolutely clobbered In the ‘93 storm, got 12-14” of snow. Mobile got about 1” but could get up to 3” with this storm. We will see

[Tireman4]

From Jeff

Major Winter Storm to impact SE TX starting Monday evening.
Widespread significant disruption to nearly impossible travel late Monday evening into Wednesday
Dangerously cold conditions Monday-Wednesday
Discussion:
Initial cold front has cleared the area with cold conditions in place this morning. Freeze line is generally along and north of I-10 and under clear skies today temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 40’s. Push of arctic air arrives into the region tonight with temperatures falling below freezing at many locations. There has not been any adjustments to the temperatures for Monday and Tuesday mornings with mostly mid to upper 20’s over most of the region and low 20’s north of HWY 105. Still watching Wed AM closely for “really” cold with expected snow on the ground and clearing skies…lows well into the 10’s for a good part of the area and low to mid 20’s toward the coast is in the cards.
Gusty northerly winds today through Tuesday will result in wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s…so you’ll need layers if going outside.
Many areas will fall below freezing on Monday evening and potentially remain below freezing into Wednesday afternoon and even then only may warm a few degrees above freezing so sub-freezing duration of 36-45 hours is possible over the area.
Monday AM Forecasted Low Temperatures:
North of HWY 105: 22-26
North of I-10: 25-29
Houston metro (inside Beltway): 27-29
Coastal Counties: 28-31
Beaches/Galveston: 31-34
Tuesday AM Forecasted Low Temperatures:
North of HWY 105: 24-26
North of I-10: 25-28
Houston metro (inside Beltway): 27-29
Coastal Counties: 27-30
Beaches/Galveston: 30-32
Wednesday AM Forecasted Low Temperatures:
North of HWY 105: 14-17
North of I-10: 15-18
Houston metro (inside Beltway): 17-19
Coastal Counties: 19-22
Beaches/Galveston: 28-30
Maximum preparations and precautions for sub-freezing conditions for many hours should be completed today. Failure to complete proper precautions may result in significant damage to vegetation and infrastructure.
Protect sensitive vegetation.
Protect any exposed outdoor pipes (sprinkler systems should be shut off and properly drained). Pipes in attics and along exterior walls of structures could freeze at these levels.
Prepare proper shelter and warmth for animals and livestock and make sure water sources are not frozen.
Persons should limit outside exposure to a minimum.
Winter Storm:
Significant winter storm will impact the area late Monday into Tuesday with widespread travel impacts that will linger well into Wednesday and possibly Thursday.
Upper level trough will move into Texas late Monday with surface low pressure being forced along the lower TX coast which will start to bring moisture northward into the cold air late Monday. Clouds will increase Monday afternoon and expect to see precipitation develop by mid to late Monday evening and expand across the region from the southwest. We are now within the range of some of the more reliable high resolution models that are just slightly warmer aloft than the global guidance has been suggesting which suggest more of a freezing rain and sleet profile, but the temperature profiles are not all that different and the air column cools with time toward an all snow event into the day on Tuesday. However, will need to keep an eye on the profiles over the next 24 hours as a pesky warm layer aloft could change the precipitation type and accumulation amounts. Will still favor mostly all snow north of I-10 and a mixture of precipitation south of I-10 (looking more sleet than freezing rain).
Guidance continues to exhibit numerous banding features with this event which suggest a small amount of instability and strong lift within the near saturated sub-freezing air column. This can bee seen in the guidance precipitation fields showing banding structures and also in the SREF plumes with significantly varying storm totals with individual memebrs. It appears there will be a period of potentially heavy sleet and snow bands over the area that will result in rapid accumulation. Visibility in the heavier snow bands may fall to less than .25 of a mile at times. As with a heavy rainfall event…where any of these heavier bands establish is unknown but will result in higher totals than nearby areas. Guidance has been generally favoring an area along and just north of the I-10 corridor from west of Houston to Liberty County for some of the higher totals and areas northeast of the metro area.
Accumulations:
Widespread snow/sleet amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected over much of the region with isolated banding totals of 4-6 inches and possibly higher. Any accumulations of freezing rain look to be toward the coast and southwest of the metro area and average less than .10 of an inch. Should there be more sleet than snow…these accumulation amounts would lower some.
Impacts:
Widespread significant impacts to travel is likely with near impossible travel expected on Tuesday into early Wednesday with potentially several inches of snow and ice on all roadway surfaces. Prolonged cold temperatures will result in slow recovery and melting post event with snow likely lingering into Thursday and possibly longer depending on depths.
Be at a safe location by 600pm Monday evening for the duration of this event.
Top

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD

( Yeah, the Skew Ts the Captain showed us yesterday are probably the best I have ever seen for an all snow profile in the Houston area. Buckle up)

HGX AFD

639
FXUS64 KHGX 191105
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
505 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 406 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

****WINTER STORM LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY AFTERNOON****

Key Points:

1) Significant, widespread travel disruptions likely Monday
night through midday Wednesday.

2) Snow and sleet are likely and could be heavy at times.

3) A glaze of ice is possible in our southwestern counties.

4) Widespread hard freeze likely Tuesday night warranting the
protection of the four Ps (People, Pets, Pipes, and Plants).

Confidence is increasing that a significant winter storm will
impact southeast Texas Monday night into Tuesday. Though there
remains some uncertainty regarding precipitation type, recent
trends are favoring snow over ice. There is an increasing risk of
locally heavy snow and sleet. However, even light accumulations of
frozen precipitation will result in significant issues for our
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 242 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

My greedy, greedy shift partner has swiped 12 hours of the typical
short term period from me so he can have the winter storm all to
himself (actually we worked this out together for max continuity,
but if you know him, please tease him good-naturedly about it).
Thus, the short term forecast is functionally the "pre-winter
storm" phase of the forecast. It is honestly quite straight-
forward - clear, cold, windy today, increasing clouds tomorrow.

Here are the high points of the short term: with continued minimum
wind chills in the 15-25 degree range, the cold weather advisory
currently in place is extended through tomorrow morning. Beyond
that, cold weather continues, but we may well need to consider an
extreme cold watch/warning. It may not be needed, but at least
considered. Cold strikes from another angle, as well! In addition
to exposure impacts for unprotected humans, we`ll be looking for
low temperatures north of the Houston metro tonight to get into
pipe- threatening range for unprotected plumbing. A freeze warning
is in place from midnight tonight through 10 am tomorrow for a
hard freeze in those northern areas. Finally, we do still have the
wind advisory in place today for Galveston Island, Bolivar
Peninsula, and all the other various peninsulas/islands on the far
side of the Intracoastal Waterway.

Meteorologically, as much as I am a person who tries to find the
fascinating nuance in everything, I`m really struggling here. In
the 700-500 mb layer, flow is broadly cyclonic and doesn`t change
too much, other than to catch a bit more of a Pacific connection
towards Monday evening. At 850 mb, an onshore flow pattern sets up
today. This will be particularly important later on, and I`m sure
the long term section will have stuff to say on this in regards
to precip amounts and types. But for my purposes, it doesn`t mean
much other than increasing clouds and the emergence of some rain
chances over the Gulf and immediate Matagorda Bay area later on
Monday. But as I`ve already whined about, the long term has all
the really interesting goings-on in regards to this. Tomorrow
afternoon is still just place-setting.

At the surface, winds remain broadly offshore. Today will be very
much straight northerly, gusty winds with a strong gradient
between a high pressure center in the Central Plains, and lower
pressure offshore. That high will gradually make its way to the
Mid-South by tomorrow afternoon, and that will veer surface winds
more northeasterly, but that`s still not an onshore wind for
anyone in the area except for mainland Galveston County, and
that`s really stretching the definition of "onshore". Congrats to
Kemah, Bacliff, and San Leon for likely getting to see dewpoints
rise on Monday from just under 20 to just over 20, I guess.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

My shift partner should be grateful that I am taking the forecast
period starting Monday night because confidence is high that a
winter storm will impact southeast Texas Monday night through
Tuesday afternoon, followed by a hard freeze Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Hazardous travel is likely over most if not all
of our county warning area Monday night through midday Wednesday.
Now that the system is within range of much (though not all) of
our higher resolution models, we can compare the new data with the
what the global models have been showing. So let`s dive into it!

When comparing global vs mesoscale model precip type output, the
first thing you may notice is that the mesoscale models are
indicating more sleet and freezing than the global guidance. To
investigate why, we need to look up into the atmosphere around the
850 to 700 MB layer. Nearly all of the guidance is showing WAA to
some degree in this layer. But the mesoscale models feature a more
robust WAA regime in this layer, resulting in higher temperatures.
This can easily be seen via forecast soundings where the "warm
nose" in the NAM data reaches or exceeds the freezing mark across
the southern 2/3rds of our area. The HRRR only goes out to 06Z
Tuesday as I type. But the HRRR also shows a similar thermodynamic
profile to the NAM. If you`ve made it this far into my AFD, you
might be thinking that we`re steering the forecast towards more
sleet. To that I say, not so fast!

The mesoscale data we have thus far is technically warmer than the
globals in the 850-700MB layer. But the data isn`t THAT much
warmer. In fact, the NAM/HRRR soundings a very close to a snow
profile, with only a thin layer of slightly above freezing air. If
anything, the suggested precip type from the available mesocale
data appears to be more of a sleet/snow mix, with more snow than
sleet north of I-10. So the mesoscale data may appear quite a bit
different than the global guidance when looking at precip type
maps. But once you dig into the soundings, the models look less
variant. So what are the dominant precip types that we are
expecting?

The lower levels could be warm enough at the start of the event
for some areas to see a few plain liquid rain showers Monday
evening. But this will change overnight as the situation becomes
more dynamic and precipitation becomes more widespread after
midnight. By the predawn hours, widespread light to moderate
precipitation is expected to spread across the region. The
temperature profile is expected to favor snow across the northern
half of the CWA. For the southern half (I-10 counties south the
coast), precip is expected to start as a wintry mix. The best
chance of freezing rain is over our southwestern counties
(Jackson, Matagorda, Wharton, and Brazoria) where a glaze of ice
is possible. For most of the wintry mix region, sleet is expected
to be the dominant precip type Monday night into Tuesday morning.
The temperatures profile is expected to become colder as Tuesday
morning progresses into Tuesday afternoon, suggesting the line
between all snow and a wintry mix will drift southward.

One of the more interesting aspects of this storm is the
increasing potential for heavy bands of precipitation to develop,
resulting in locally heavy snow and sleet. Our deterministic
forecast snow/sleet accumulations are generally 2 to 4 inches
north of I-10 (3-5 inches in some of our eastern counties) with
lighter amounts farther south as the ratio of sleet vs snow
increases. HOWEVER, these amounts do not fully capture the
potential of heavy banding that could result in locally heavier
totals. Regardless, any amount of snow, sleet, or freezing rain is
a significant weather event here in southeast Texas.

Skies are expected to clear as the system departs on Tuesday
night. The amount of snowpack on the ground will likely dictate
the overnight lows (more snow = colder , less snow = not as cold).
In areas that receive small amounts or no snow, overnight lows
could be as "warm" as the mid 20s (closer to 30 in coastal areas
with little to no snow). But in locations that receive a few
inches or more of snow, temperatures could drop well down into the
teens. A widespread hard freeze is likely Tuesday night and
Wednesday. But the severity of the freeze will depend on how much
snow your locations receives.

The cold is expected to gradually modify during the second half of
the week. But temperatures are expected to remain below normal
through Friday, potentially Saturday.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 501 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

North winds and windy this morning, becoming slightly less windy
this afternoon, gradually getting more northeasterly and less
windy overnight into tomorrow morning. VFR throughout, and likely
SKC. Enjoy the clean TAFs while we have them. This time tomorrow,
we will have a mess on our hands.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Strong northerly winds and enhanced seas will continue through
the rest of today. Winds decrease somewhat tonight while veering
to the northeast. By Monday, winds and seas will begin to
increase once again as the next storm system approaches. Gale
conditions are possible on Monday and especially Tuesday. Though
the best chance of gales will be over the Gulf waters, we cannot
rule out gale conditions at the coast and in the bays. Low water
levels may be an issue as well. In addition, a mix of frozen
precipitation is expected near the coast Monday night into
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 42 24 41 25 / 0 0 10 80
Houston (IAH) 44 27 39 27 / 0 0 10 60
Galveston (GLS) 45 35 43 31 / 0 0 0 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
436>439.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Monday for
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>198.

Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-
313-335>338-436>439.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ350-355-370-
375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self

[South Texas Storms]

This is looking more and more like an IH-10 special. The corridor of heavy snow amounts could be very close to Houston to Lake Charles to New Orleans.

[Brent]

No. I was working that storm in '93. Nothing like it.

Yeah my friends back east are pretty upset the storm kind of falls apart

Total opposite of 93. Still the record holder over there in a lot of places

Houston into Louisiana may get more snow than anyone

I think areas in South Ms and South Al could see similar or higher snow totals than the ‘93 storm. I remember Birmingham got absolutely clobbered In the ‘93 storm, got 12-14” of snow. Mobile got about 1” but could get up to 3” with this storm. We will see

Yeah that's true for the coast it might be bigger than 93 but inland it falls apart

I think it's clear this is gonna be historic along the 10 corridor it's very questionable further northeast. Birmingham gonna be lucky to get much

[iorange55]

NWS Austin/San Antonio overnight issued a Winter Storm Watch for parts of its CWA. Austin area included. Up to 2” of a wintry mix expected. Game on!

It’s our time, coach!

[txwxwatcher]

If you’re in Houston, there is no need to be concerned about a warm nose at this point. Our local pro mets are all onboard. The snow is coming, folks, and it will at times be heavy and will indeed be historic for us. Enjoy!

[Tireman4]

NWS Austin/San Antonio overnight issued a Winter Storm Watch for parts of its CWA. Austin area included. Up to 2” of a wintry mix expected. Game on!

Sir, I think ( Houston/Galveston Metro) are going to get it. LOL Get yer snowplows ready!

[Snowman67]

This is looking more and more like an IH-10 special. The corridor of heavy snow amounts could be very close to Houston to Lake Charles to New Orleans.

This reads like something out of a fiction novel.

[Ntxw]

That 1895 map a few days ago still looks good about now. Such a rare event like that down the coast, this will probably be this century's memorable event for you folks down there.

[PTrackerLA]

Our local Mets are starting to show the GRAF model output. This is a model they relentlessly share during hurricane season when we have a storm in the gulf and it seems to do quite well. It is showing some insane totals of 12"+ around here. Anyone have and thoughts on how the GRAF handles winter storms?

[snownado]

Congrats to the Houston cold misers and snow weenies!!!!

All indications are you're finally getting the "big" snowstorm you've been long yearning for...

[Portastorm]

NWS Austin/San Antonio overnight issued a Winter Storm Watch for parts of its CWA. Austin area included. Up to 2” of a wintry mix expected. Game on!

Sir, I think ( Houston/Galveston Metro) are going to get it. LOL Get yer snowplows ready!

You’re getting the ribeye but hey we’re getting a top sirloin at least!