Deep South Winter 2024-2025

[BigB0882]

According to models, I’m solidly in the 2-4 inch range. I will gladly take that much. However, I was getting nervous with southern trends that it would end up south of here. Someone is going to get a huge payday from this, I feel. Somewhere in South Central Louisiana could end up with a foot.

I’ll gladly volunteer. I’m in BTR at the very southern tip of the parish. Normally I don’t like being south of I10 but it could work in my favor this time..or not..we shall see!

[Steve]

When do we think we get our first Winter Storm Warnings? I bet it won’t be long, perhaps this evening?

This is from NWS. Could be tonight since it’s a rare event but more likely to be sometime tomorrow since we won’t get the precip until Tuesday.

Winter Storm Warning:
Winter Storm Warnings are issued when hazardous winter weather is occurring, imminent, or
highly likely over part or all of the County Warning Forecast Area. Winter Storm Warnings are
usually issued in the period of 12 to 24 hours before the storm starts, and occasionally beyond
that as much as 36 hours before the storm moves into the region.

[Steve]

Big push on the GfS with the low traveling the Gulf a hair east of ENE. Snowfall totals in a bit, but it’s got ice and snow all the way through Tallahassee and even ice to Jacksonville. Might lift out a little more than depicted? Obviously hit play to run it

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[Steve]

I meant to post this in this thread, but GFS snowfall totals. Note the very heavy band of snow showing up from Panama City over toward Jacksonville.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1912&fh=84

[Steve]

CMC still leading the pack in total accumulated snowfall as it has been doing for days. Either it’s overdone (like it has been with the cold temperatures) or it’s been anticipating things the best. I’d bet on overdone but nobody can be sure. Snow event for Tally but it lifts out faster than GFS so no snow for Jacksonville.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1912&fh=66

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian.

Models really starting to come into agreement now. Solid 2-5 average along the Gulf coast.



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[Ivanhater]

We are in range of the high resolution models now so about time to start really looking at those. And they are showing a really robust shield

[cajungal]

And to think I was jealous of Tx last week! I said following week was our turn and I am cashing in

[Ralph's Weather]

Enjoy what y'all get but do remember that most of the snow will not fall at 10:1 ratios as it will be wet and mixed with sleet at times. Ratios can be below 5:1 in these events.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro in line with rest of the models. Looks like they have locked in for the most part.

Nice snow shield

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[Jag95]

Logging on for the first time today and was almost afraid to look. As Freddie Prinze would say, looking good! All I would ask for is to shift about 25 miles to the north to move those heavier bands onshore. Strange how, if nothing changes, you have to go south to find the heavier amts.

[Sunnydays]

Logging on for the first time today and was almost afraid to look. As Freddie Prinze would say, looking good! All I would ask for is to shift about 25 miles to the north to move those heavier bands onshore. Strange how, if nothing changes, you have to go south to find the heavier amts.

Probably won't know where those heavier bands set up, until it's actually happening in real time.

[Jag95]

Logging on for the first time today and was almost afraid to look. As Freddie Prinze would say, looking good! All I would ask for is to shift about 25 miles to the north to move those heavier bands onshore. Strange how, if nothing changes, you have to go south to find the heavier amts.

Probably won't know where those heavier bands set up, until it's actually happening in real time.

Yeah, honestly after second thoughts I'd lock this in if I could. It's almost perfect and something you'll probably never see again. Funny thing on the NAM though, there's one little spot where it shows ZERO inches and it's right over guess who's house. 7 inches to the east, 8 to the west. I should print that out and hang it on the wall.

[Sunnydays]

Logging on for the first time today and was almost afraid to look. As Freddie Prinze would say, looking good! All I would ask for is to shift about 25 miles to the north to move those heavier bands onshore. Strange how, if nothing changes, you have to go south to find the heavier amts.

Probably won't know where those heavier bands set up, until it's actually happening in real time.

Yeah, honestly after second thoughts I'd lock this in if I could. It's almost perfect and something you'll probably never see again. Funny thing on the NAM though, there's one little spot where it shows ZERO inches and it's right over guess who's house. 7 inches to the east, 8 to the west. I should print that out and hang it on the wall.

Haha, yeah I told my daughter who lives like 5 miles north of me just East of Pensacola, that she may get 4 inches and I may get only 1...or vice versa. It's gonna be great fun watching in any event. I'm pretty excited.

[Brent]

Yeah speaking from experience these things always have surprises good and bad I bet someone will see way more than the forecast and someone else may never change over it happens a lot with these storms and nobody can tell you til it's happening. Spann used to say it even that someone will be unhappy unfortunately

[Sunnydays]

Pensacola, Florida received 2 inches of snow on February 9, 1973. However, some unofficial reports claim that the city received up to 8 inches of snow

I was actually here at that time...so I am going to get to see it twice in my lifetime. Being old as dirt has a few perks . ( I was in high school)

[Steve]

Yeah speaking from experience these things always have surprises good and bad I bet someone will see way more than the forecast and someone else may never change over it happens a lot with these storms and nobody can tell you til it's happening. Spann used to say it even that someone will be unhappy unfortunately

No doubt. I remember back in grammar school - 77 or 78 when it was supposed to snow in New Orleans. It was to our north east and west. It got really grey out, but the snow literally skipped over the city. That happened again back in the mid 90’s. However in 1988 (February I think), we had an ice storm and then an impulse formed that evening and we ended up getting some surprise snow. So it goes both ways for sure. Everyone’s jacked (or nervous), but those jacked up will be disappointed if the weather fails to deliver. It really doesn’t matter to me if I get 5” of snow or 5 minutes of sleet as long as I get to see something. I have the kids ready to record our two boxers’ first experience with snow or ice. I don’t know if they are going to go bananas or step and lift their paws up. I decided to stick it out in Pensacola so I don’t have to run my water for 4 days.

[Sunnydays]

Starting to get word of schools closing Tuesday and Wednesday, Santa Rosa county Florida anyway, I'm sure Escambia will be the same ( as per phone call from the School Board)

[Steve]

Starting to get word of schools closing Tuesday and Wednesday, Santa Rosa county Florida anyway, I'm sure Escambia will be the same ( as per phone call from the School Board)

You over in Pace or Milton?

[Sunnydays]

Starting to get word of schools closing Tuesday and Wednesday, Santa Rosa county Florida anyway, I'm sure Escambia will be the same ( as per phone call from the School Board)

You over in Pace or Milton?

Pace...down towards Floridatown