Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Steve]

Man, I wish I could see this. I currently have class scheduled on Tuesday and it's not looking like we're going to see much in Starkville.

Met major?

15-3 for the Bulldogs, they should be dancing in March, Texas is on the bubble. But we got lots of NIL money, they'll buy some talent and the Horns should be better '25-26. Far from Starkville but I had a summer internship in Laurel, MS. I found few of the negative stereotypes I'd heard in NY moving to Texas, but that year I found many of the bad stereotypes were true. But eating sweet onions as a desert after lunch was cool and Hattiesburg was a college town.

Anybody: Free image hosting site? I was using Giphy during hurricane season, now they want me to pay. I don't need to post gigs, just images.

Imgur and one with a bb in the name I can’t remember.

[HurricaneBrain]

Ralph: the south of I-10 snow villain this forum needs. Appreciate your input. I’m going to side with the hi-res models on this one.

Along and south of I10 tomorrow night looks like rain turning to sleet then ending as snow during the morning hours. Along and north of 190 it should be all snow. The heavy stuff is in the morning after the transition is mostly done so snow could still accumulate significantly assuming the warm nose cools quick enough.

[Ralph's Weather]

Along and south of I10 tomorrow night looks like rain turning to sleet then ending as snow during the morning hours. Along and north of 190 it should be all snow. The heavy stuff is in the morning after the transition is mostly done so snow could still accumulate significantly assuming the warm nose cools quick enough.

When do you think it will change to snow and how many hrs would we have of it?

That's the million dollar question. Near the coast it may never change over but inland it could change during the early morning hours. Warm nose are very hard to predict, but y'all's is fairly minor so hopefully you can get 4 to 8 hours of snow. Plus side is temps are warm enough at the surface that icing should not be a big issue. Temps should hang right close to freezing overnight and maybe drop to upper 20s by the end of the event. Roads will be at the worst Tue night once temps plummet at sunset.

[TomballEd]

I like what the Reggie is showing, but we're near the edge of their grid. They are a model used by the Canadians. It scores coups in the NEUSA against US mesoscales, I'm not sure how well it would do down here.

It’s got the most snowfall. Bonkers for Texas

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1912&fh=66

That is why I hope it is right. But it is near the edge of the grid.

[Brazoria_cnty99]

Along and south of I10 tomorrow night looks like rain turning to sleet then ending as snow during the morning hours. Along and north of 190 it should be all snow. The heavy stuff is in the morning after the transition is mostly done so snow could still accumulate significantly assuming the warm nose cools quick enough.

When do you think it will change to snow and how many hrs would we have of it?

That's the million dollar question. Near the coast it may never change over but inland it could change during the early morning hours. Warm nose are very hard to predict, but y'all's is fairly minor so hopefully you can get 4 to 8 hours of snow. Plus side is temps are warm enough at the surface that icing should not be a big issue. Temps should hang right close to freezing overnight and maybe drop to upper 20s by the end of the event. Roads will be at the worst Tue night once temps plummet at sunset.

I'm in Angleton so I'm not right at the coast like freeport
.but I was just curious. I appreciate the reply!

[Ralph's Weather]

Ralph: the south of I-10 snow villain this forum needs. Appreciate your input. I’m going to side with the hi-res models on this one.

Along and south of I10 tomorrow night looks like rain turning to sleet then ending as snow during the morning hours. Along and north of 190 it should be all snow. The heavy stuff is in the morning after the transition is mostly done so snow could still accumulate significantly assuming the warm nose cools quick enough.

This is so much better than the I20 boundary we normally have. Right at freezing surface and max column temps above 0C equals sleet and low ratio snow. South of I10 expect ratios to come out to between 4 and 8 to 1. Along 190 expect ratios around 10 or 12 to 1 and along I20 ratios will be 15 to 18 to 1. Moisture is much better near the coast though. That low ratio snow nearer the coast will be very wet and melts very easy. South of I10 snow will fall during the day into surface that is warm and be very wet. This equals much lower accumulations than you would expect except when it is falling heavily. The gloppy flakes will be huge and fun to look at but major roads should be in decent shape until Tue night.

[txtwister78]

WRF NSSL usually a pretty good short-range model.

[TomballEd]

Test Test. 10:1 is too high with the sleet at the beginning but 3 inches IMBY would be more than I've seen in a single storm since I lived in Bedford (DFW)



What am I doing wrong?

[iorange55]

WRF NSSL usually a pretty good short-range model.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwnssl/2025011912/048/snku_acc-imp.us_sc.png

I’ll take this

[TomballEd]

WRF NSSL usually a pretty good short-range model.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwnssl/2025011912/048/snku_acc-imp.us_sc.png

I'm assuming sleet along and S of I-10?

[txtwister78]

WRF NSSL usually a pretty good short-range model.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwnssl/2025011912/048/snku_acc-imp.us_sc.png

I'm assuming sleet along and S of I-10?

Correct. At the tail end of the run (48 hours) it does start to transition from sleet to snow across the SA metro and areas further east into portions of the Houston metro

[Ralph's Weather]

WRF NSSL usually a pretty good short-range model.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwnssl/2025011912/048/snku_acc-imp.us_sc.png

I'm assuming sleet along and S of I-10?

This only goes through Tue night so the south portion is still sleet at sunrise. Future runs should show some snow nearer the coast. Do not get fooled by pretty Tropical Tidbit 10:1 maps showing massive totals though. Those do not account for low ratios and mixing that can make 10 inches on the map into 3 inches of mix in reality.

[Brazoria_cnty99]

WRF NSSL usually a pretty good short-range model.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwnssl/2025011912/048/snku_acc-imp.us_sc.png

I'm assuming sleet along and S of I-10?

This only goes through Tue night so the south portion is still sleet at sunrise. Future runs should show some snow nearer the coast. Do not get fooled by pretty Tropical Tidbit 10:1 maps showing massive totals though. Those do not account for low ratios and mixing that can make 10 inches on the map into 3 inches of mix in reality.

You mean Monday night? Tuesday night it should end

[TomballEd]

WRF NSSL usually a pretty good short-range model.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwnssl/2025011912/048/snku_acc-imp.us_sc.png

I'm assuming sleet along and S of I-10?

This only goes through Tue night so the south portion is still sleet at sunrise. Future runs should show some snow nearer the coast. Do not get fooled by pretty Tropical Tidbit 10:1 maps showing massive totals though. Those do not account for low ratios and mixing that can make 10 inches on the map into 3 inches of mix in reality.

Not even Kuchera is perfect. It sets ratios, if I understand, by the warmest temperature in the column. More accurate than just a ratio.

[Ralph's Weather]

I'm assuming sleet along and S of I-10?

This only goes through Tue night so the south portion is still sleet at sunrise. Future runs should show some snow nearer the coast. Do not get fooled by pretty Tropical Tidbit 10:1 maps showing massive totals though. Those do not account for low ratios and mixing that can make 10 inches on the map into 3 inches of mix in reality.

You mean Monday night? Tuesday night it should end

HaHa yes I will fix that.

[bbowman7]

Still looking for some updates on the Lufkin/Diboll area if anyone can help out.

Thanks.

[Ralph's Weather]

I'm assuming sleet along and S of I-10?

This only goes through Tue night so the south portion is still sleet at sunrise. Future runs should show some snow nearer the coast. Do not get fooled by pretty Tropical Tidbit 10:1 maps showing massive totals though. Those do not account for low ratios and mixing that can make 10 inches on the map into 3 inches of mix in reality.

Not even Kuchera is perfect. It sets ratios, if I understand, by the warmest temperature in the column. More accurate than just a ratio.

Very true the physics of snow is very complex so a shallow warm nose will have less effect as less flakes will melt and 925mb looks to be cold so may not be as bad. Very hard to predict tattoos in a constantly changing environment like this one. It likely starts at 3:1 and ends at 8:1 but how long are you in the higher ratios is the question. This is why I say 190 is bullseye because they will be around 12:1 the whole event.

[kassi]

Man, I wish I could see this. I currently have class scheduled on Tuesday and it's not looking like we're going to see much in Starkville.

Met major?

15-3 for the Bulldogs, they should be dancing in March, Texas is on the bubble. But we got lots of NIL money, they'll buy some talent and the Horns should be better '25-26. Far from Starkville but I had a summer internship in Laurel, MS. I found few of the negative stereotypes I'd heard in NY moving to Texas, but that year I found many of the bad stereotypes were true. But eating sweet onions as a desert after lunch was cool and Hattiesburg was a college town.

Anybody: Free image hosting site? I was using Giphy during hurricane season, now they want me to pay. I don't need to post gigs, just images.

Imgur and one with a bb in the name I can’t remember.

https://imgbb.com/upload

[Ralph's Weather]

Still looking for some updates on the Lufkin/Diboll area if anyone can help out.

Thanks.

I'm going 3 to 5 inches for you. You may be on the northern fringe of the best snow so Jasper may be 5 to 8 inches and Jacksonville 1 to 3 inches.

[Ralph's Weather]

I see some talk on social. Media of blizzard like conditions. Yes there will be heavy snow and gusty winds but this snow is not Midwest powder. I do not expect much blowing snow.