Texas Winter 2024-2025

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kassi
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6501 Postby kassi » Sun Jan 19, 2025 12:03 pm

TomballEd wrote:Test Test. 10:1 is too high with the sleet at the beginning but 3 inches IMBY would be more than I've seen in a single storm since I lived in Bedford (DFW)

https://imgur.com/a/jxU5d6v

What am I doing wrong?


Try https://imgbb.com/upload

Copy the "BBCode full linked" url and paste it here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6502 Postby TropicalTundra » Sun Jan 19, 2025 12:06 pm

Wow. Pretty much all the recent runs on stuff start the storm just east of me. Would be lucky to get anything at this rate :(
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Snow in Texas, 8th wonder of the World

Don't use my posts as forecast; I'm not a licensed meteorologist! I just endorse cold weather, alright?

All observations I note are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6503 Postby bigddstranny » Sun Jan 19, 2025 12:12 pm

txtwister78 wrote:Definitely not looking good for travel across the SA metro if the HRRR is accurate. Could be a disaster Monday night into Tuesday morning with that much freezing rain before things transition over.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/frzr_total/1737288000/1737460800-UYZddiyMEmI.png


Am I correct in thinking this puts Central Texas in the crosshairs for an ice storm?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6504 Postby txwxwatcher » Sun Jan 19, 2025 12:17 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
HurricaneBrain wrote:Ralph: the south of I-10 snow villain this forum needs. Appreciate your input. I’m going to side with the hi-res models on this one.
Ralph's Weather wrote:Along and south of I10 tomorrow night looks like rain turning to sleet then ending as snow during the morning hours. Along and north of 190 it should be all snow. The heavy stuff is in the morning after the transition is mostly done so snow could still accumulate significantly assuming the warm nose cools quick enough.

This is so much better than the I20 boundary we normally have. Right at freezing surface and max column temps above 0C equals sleet and low ratio snow. South of I10 expect ratios to come out to between 4 and 8 to 1. Along 190 expect ratios around 10 or 12 to 1 and along I20 ratios will be 15 to 18 to 1. Moisture is much better near the coast though. That low ratio snow nearer the coast will be very wet and melts very easy. South of I10 snow will fall during the day into surface that is warm and be very wet. This equals much lower accumulations than you would expect except when it is falling heavily. The gloppy flakes will be huge and fun to look at but major roads should be in decent shape until Tue night.



Not exactly. I’m south of I-10 in Houston and our ground temps will be below freezing when the snow starts to fall. Accumulations will be signficant.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... ckDay.y=22
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6505 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sun Jan 19, 2025 12:21 pm

txwxwatcher wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:
HurricaneBrain wrote:Ralph: the south of I-10 snow villain this forum needs. Appreciate your input. I’m going to side with the hi-res models on this one.

This is so much better than the I20 boundary we normally have. Right at freezing surface and max column temps above 0C equals sleet and low ratio snow. South of I10 expect ratios to come out to between 4 and 8 to 1. Along 190 expect ratios around 10 or 12 to 1 and along I20 ratios will be 15 to 18 to 1. Moisture is much better near the coast though. That low ratio snow nearer the coast will be very wet and melts very easy. South of I10 snow will fall during the day into surface that is warm and be very wet. This equals much lower accumulations than you would expect except when it is falling heavily. The gloppy flakes will be huge and fun to look at but major roads should be in decent shape until Tue night.



Not exactly. I’m south of I-10 in Houston and our ground temps will be below freezing when the snow starts to fall. Accumulations will be signficant.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... ckDay.y=22

Surface temps is the air temp where we live, ground temp is the soil temp. I bet the soil temp will be in the 40s or 50s. And solar insolation also has a big impact during daytime snows. With surface temps just barely below freezing this will be mainly a grass and bridges event down there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6506 Postby Brazoria_cnty99 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 12:29 pm

txwxwatcher wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:
HurricaneBrain wrote:Ralph: the south of I-10 snow villain this forum needs. Appreciate your input. I’m going to side with the hi-res models on this one.

This is so much better than the I20 boundary we normally have. Right at freezing surface and max column temps above 0C equals sleet and low ratio snow. South of I10 expect ratios to come out to between 4 and 8 to 1. Along 190 expect ratios around 10 or 12 to 1 and along I20 ratios will be 15 to 18 to 1. Moisture is much better near the coast though. That low ratio snow nearer the coast will be very wet and melts very easy. South of I10 snow will fall during the day into surface that is warm and be very wet. This equals much lower accumulations than you would expect except when it is falling heavily. The gloppy flakes will be huge and fun to look at but major roads should be in decent shape until Tue night.



Not exactly. I’m south of I-10 in Houston and our ground temps will be below freezing when the snow starts to fall. Accumulations will be signficant.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... ckDay.y=22


Where are you located?I'm in Angleton.How much accumulation are we possibly looking at
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6507 Postby txwxwatcher » Sun Jan 19, 2025 12:30 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
txwxwatcher wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:This is so much better than the I20 boundary we normally have. Right at freezing surface and max column temps above 0C equals sleet and low ratio snow. South of I10 expect ratios to come out to between 4 and 8 to 1. Along 190 expect ratios around 10 or 12 to 1 and along I20 ratios will be 15 to 18 to 1. Moisture is much better near the coast though. That low ratio snow nearer the coast will be very wet and melts very easy. South of I10 snow will fall during the day into surface that is warm and be very wet. This equals much lower accumulations than you would expect except when it is falling heavily. The gloppy flakes will be huge and fun to look at but major roads should be in decent shape until Tue night.



Not exactly. I’m south of I-10 in Houston and our ground temps will be below freezing when the snow starts to fall. Accumulations will be signficant.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... ckDay.y=22

Surface temps is the air temp where we live, ground temp is the soil temp. I bet the soil temp will be in the 40s or 50s. And solar insolation also has a big impact during daytime snows. With surface temps just barely below freezing this will be mainly a grass and bridges event down there.


With all due respect that’s not what the professionals are saying at all. We’ve had freezing temperatures this morning and will again tomorrow before the precip arrives. There will be plenty of accumulation down here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6508 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 12:32 pm

TomballEd wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:Man, I wish I could see this. I currently have class scheduled on Tuesday and it's not looking like we're going to see much in Starkville. :cry:


Met major?

15-3 for the Bulldogs, they should be dancing in March, Texas is on the bubble. But we got lots of NIL money, they'll buy some talent and the Horns should be better '25-26. Far from Starkville but I had a summer internship in Laurel, MS. I found few of the negative stereotypes I'd heard in NY moving to Texas, but that year I found many of the bad stereotypes were true. But eating sweet onions as a desert after lunch was cool and Hattiesburg was a college town.

Anybody: Free image hosting site? I was using Giphy during hurricane season, now they want me to pay. I don't need to post gigs, just images.


Yes, I am graduating on May 15 with a BS in professional meteorology and minor in math. That is cool! I actually passed through Laurel when we went to New Orleans for the AMS conference.

I use imgur for all my images I post.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6509 Postby txwxwatcher » Sun Jan 19, 2025 12:36 pm

National Weather Service in Houston a few hours ago. Thankfully the consensus remains that we won’t have a major ice issue in Houston, while likelihood of significant snow accumulations continues.

“Heavy snow and sleet possible. Total snow accumulations
of up to 5 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of
an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.”

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx. ... n=-95.4874
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TomballEd
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6510 Postby TomballEd » Sun Jan 19, 2025 12:48 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
TomballEd wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:Man, I wish I could see this. I currently have class scheduled on Tuesday and it's not looking like we're going to see much in Starkville. :cry:


Met major?

15-3 for the Bulldogs, they should be dancing in March, Texas is on the bubble. But we got lots of NIL money, they'll buy some talent and the Horns should be better '25-26. Far from Starkville but I had a summer internship in Laurel, MS. I found few of the negative stereotypes I'd heard in NY moving to Texas, but that year I found many of the bad stereotypes were true. But eating sweet onions as a desert after lunch was cool and Hattiesburg was a college town.

Anybody: Free image hosting site? I was using Giphy during hurricane season, now they want me to pay. I don't need to post gigs, just images.


Yes, I am graduating on May 15 with a BS in professional meteorology and minor in math. That is cool! I actually passed through Laurel when we went to New Orleans for the AMS conference.

I use imgur for all my images I post.


Have any job offers? I used imgur and got a broken picture when I did i}mg} ingur {/img} Staright brackets used.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6511 Postby TomballEd » Sun Jan 19, 2025 12:51 pm

kassi wrote:
TomballEd wrote:Test Test. 10:1 is too high with the sleet at the beginning but 3 inches IMBY would be more than I've seen in a single storm since I lived in Bedford (DFW)

https://imgur.com/a/jxU5d6v

What am I doing wrong?


Try https://imgbb.com/upload

Copy the "BBCode full linked" url and paste it here.


Is this it? https://imgur.com/a/sKXOsjV
[imgur]https://imgur.com/a/sKXOsjV[/imgur] Image

Doing something wrong. I don't see a BBC code, only the address above.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6512 Postby TomballEd » Sun Jan 19, 2025 12:55 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
TomballEd wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:Man, I wish I could see this. I currently have class scheduled on Tuesday and it's not looking like we're going to see much in Starkville. :cry:


Met major?

15-3 for the Bulldogs, they should be dancing in March, Texas is on the bubble. But we got lots of NIL money, they'll buy some talent and the Horns should be better '25-26. Far from Starkville but I had a summer internship in Laurel, MS. I found few of the negative stereotypes I'd heard in NY moving to Texas, but that year I found many of the bad stereotypes were true. But eating sweet onions as a desert after lunch was cool and Hattiesburg was a college town.

Anybody: Free image hosting site? I was using Giphy during hurricane season, now they want me to pay. I don't need to post gigs, just images.


Yes, I am graduating on May 15 with a BS in professional meteorology and minor in math. That is cool! I actually passed through Laurel when we went to New Orleans for the AMS conference.

I use imgur for all my images I post.

A gentlemen's C in 'Systems of Linear Differential Equations' (oilfield reservoir modeling depends of solutions, approximations and transforms of some very ugly equations) ended my goal of an MS in petroleum engineering.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6513 Postby TomballEd » Sun Jan 19, 2025 12:57 pm

Latest Euro doesn't have the dream 8 or 10 inch snow. I think the NWS 2-5 inches around here seems the best estimate at this time.

 https://x.com/dene_buric/status/1881035343576936633

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6514 Postby Stratton23 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 12:59 pm

Id go widespread 2-5 inches and a pocket or two of 8-10 inches, depending on where that heavy band sets up, i still think someone could see double the 2-5 inches for sure, of course where that happens is anyones guess
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6515 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 19, 2025 1:19 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Id go widespread 2-5 inches and a pocket or two of 8-10 inches, depending on where that heavy band sets up, i still think someone could see double the 2-5 inches for sure, of course where that happens is anyones guess


Yeah that makes sense to me too and honestly you're gonna have surprises on both ends. Someone will probably get 8-10 in one spot and another spot struggles to get 2 inches. And if y'all escape without a warm nose consider yourselves lucky they appear out of thin air sometimes. There's always surprises with these
Last edited by Brent on Sun Jan 19, 2025 1:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6516 Postby TomballEd » Sun Jan 19, 2025 1:19 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Id go widespread 2-5 inches and a pocket or two of 8-10 inches, depending on where that heavy band sets up, i still think someone could see double the 2-5 inches for sure, of course where that happens is anyones guess


Reading New England winter threads, the geography of the low mountains and valleys dictates where the banding features set up. We don't have that here. Where the frontogenic bands set up is still a guess this far out, picking the winners who might double the NWS 2-5 inches is almost nowcast, HRRR type stuff and radar trends.

The link to the Reggie, pasting imgur addressed into imgur and image isn't working for me. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_54.png
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6517 Postby TomballEd » Sun Jan 19, 2025 1:23 pm

Brent wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:Id go widespread 2-5 inches and a pocket or two of 8-10 inches, depending on where that heavy band sets up, i still think someone could see double the 2-5 inches for sure, of course where that happens is anyones guess


Yeah that makes sense to me too and honestly you're gonna have surprises on both ends. Someone will probably get 8-10 in one spot and another spot struggles to get 2 inches. And if y'all escape without a warm nose consider yourselves lucky they appear out of thin air sometimes. There's always surprises with these


Poor snow ratios and even freezing/frozen can happen with a completely below freezing profile if part of the saturated profile isn't colder than about -10C. Much of what looked like snow during the 2021 freeze was freezing drizzle, it was below 20F at the surface and the entire column was below freezing, but temps in the saturated zone weren't much below freezing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6518 Postby TheAustinMan » Sun Jan 19, 2025 1:23 pm

Some folks in Central Texas might have been a little confused as to why the 12Z HRRR was such a wet blanket when it came to snow chances. Instead of snow, the HRRR gave a pretty nasty combination of sleet and freezing rain:
Source: TropicalTidbits
Image

Here's the 12Z HRRR model sounding valid for 12Z Tuesday for San Antonio / Bexar County.
Source: TropicalTidbits
Image

Well that looks entirely below freezing. What gives? Notice the area where the dew point lines up with temperature. That's where the air is saturated, and approximately represents the depth of the (modeled) cloud. It extends from about 850hPa at the bottom to 650hPa at the top. Throughout this cloud, temperatures are between -6C and 0C. Despite the below freezing temperatures, clouds at these temperatures tend to be mostly composed of supercooled liquid droplets, rather than ice crystals. As a rule of thumb, you need cloud top temperatures of at least -10C to get a decent chance of ice crystals to fall through the cloud, leading to more snow production. Unfortunately, the atmosphere at those temperatures is quite dry above 600 hPa (in the HRRR). Notice also how vertical motion (bars on the left) is maximized within the lower cloud deck, but tapers off as you get into the heights more suitable for snow production. That also makes it difficult for snow formation.

So, in this particular case, frozen precipitation type relies on the supercooled liquid water tumbling around, coalescing, and hopefully being able to freeze into ice. This is why even with a profile entirely below freezing, freezing rain and sleet can still be entirely probable outcomes.

To the east, the situation is a little different. Here's an isentropic model analysis from the 12Z GFS for the same time. This gives you a sense for how air moves vertically. Follow the wind direction illustrated, and note the pressure (cyan lines) as you follow the path of air. Check out Central Texas... those barbs are more parallel to the isobars, suggesting less vertical motion. But check out the air flowing up and over the Houston area. Those barbs cross the isobars into lower pressures, meaning that air is rising quite substantially!

Source: TropicalTidbits
Image

This increase in vertical lift over East Texas relative to Central Texas means more moisture is able to be thrown up to higher altitudes to the east, giving a higher chance of getting more moisture into the cold temperatures that more suitable for snow production (the dendritic growth zone, or DGZ). We can see this in the 12Z HRRR cross section, which shows moisture reaching higher into the atmosphere, and, critically, into that 500-600 hPa level where temperatures are cold enough to support better snow formation!
Image

So, for Central Texas, snow-lovers will be hoping that vertical motion is higher over Central Texas than what's modeled here.
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Treat my opinions with a grain of salt. For official information see your local weather service.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6519 Postby kassi » Sun Jan 19, 2025 1:24 pm

TomballEd wrote:
kassi wrote:
TomballEd wrote:Test Test. 10:1 is too high with the sleet at the beginning but 3 inches IMBY would be more than I've seen in a single storm since I lived in Bedford (DFW)

https://imgur.com/a/jxU5d6v

What am I doing wrong?


Try https://imgbb.com/upload

Copy the "BBCode full linked" url and paste it here.


Is this it? https://imgur.com/a/sKXOsjV
https://imgur.com/a/sKXOsjV https://imgur.com/a/sKXOsjV

Doing something wrong. I don't see a BBC code, only the address above.

The link I posted wasn't imgur. Click on that one. There's an option to copy the BBCode url and then just paste it here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6520 Postby TomballEd » Sun Jan 19, 2025 1:49 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:Some folks in Central Texas might have been a little confused as to why the 12Z HRRR was such a wet blanket when it came to snow chances. Instead of snow, the HRRR gave a pretty nasty combination of sleet and freezing rain:
Source: TropicalTidbits
https://i.imgur.com/k6NpbWO.png

Here's the 12Z HRRR model sounding valid for 12Z Tuesday for San Antonio / Bexar County.
Source: TropicalTidbits
https://i.imgur.com/m2NAgRC.png

Well that looks entirely below freezing. What gives? Notice the area where the dew point lines up with temperature. That's where the air is saturated, and approximately represents the depth of the (modeled) cloud. It extends from about 850hPa at the bottom to 650hPa at the top. Throughout this cloud, temperatures are between -6C and 0C. Despite the below freezing temperatures, clouds at these temperatures tend to be mostly composed of supercooled liquid droplets, rather than ice crystals. As a rule of thumb, you need cloud top temperatures of at least -10C to get a decent chance of ice crystals to fall through the cloud, leading to more snow production. Unfortunately, the atmosphere at those temperatures is quite dry above 600 hPa (in the HRRR). Notice also how vertical motion (bars on the left) is maximized within the lower cloud deck, but tapers off as you get into the heights more suitable for snow production. That also makes it difficult for snow formation.

So, in this particular case, frozen precipitation type relies on the supercooled liquid water tumbling around, coalescing, and hopefully being able to freeze into ice. This is why even with a profile entirely below freezing, freezing rain and sleet can still be entirely probable outcomes.

To the east, the situation is a little different. Here's an isentropic model analysis from the 12Z GFS for the same time. This gives you a sense for how air moves vertically. Follow the wind direction illustrated, and note the pressure (cyan lines) as you follow the path of air. Check out Central Texas... those barbs are more parallel to the isobars, suggesting less vertical motion. But check out the air flowing up and over the Houston area. Those barbs cross the isobars into lower pressures, meaning that air is rising quite substantially!

Source: TropicalTidbits
https://i.imgur.com/E5vB5kq.png

This increase in vertical lift over East Texas relative to Central Texas means more moisture is able to be thrown up to higher altitudes to the east, giving a higher chance of getting more moisture into the cold temperatures that more suitable for snow production (the dendritic growth zone, or DGZ). We can see this in the 12Z HRRR cross section, which shows moisture reaching higher into the atmosphere, and, critically, into that 500-600 hPa level where temperatures are cold enough to support better snow formation!
https://i.imgur.com/boIrcYT.png

So, for Central Texas, snow-lovers will be hoping that vertical motion is higher over Central Texas than what's modeled here.


This. Its called 'top down forecasting'. The use of only 1000-500 mb thickness or 850 mb temps to predict p-types can lead to forecasting snow when ice is more likely. About 10 years ago HGX mets just did thickness and 850 mb, and called for snow instead of ice. People were then claiming a warm nose missed by the models because top down forecasting isn't used locally, because these kind of events are rare.
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