Deep South Winter 2024-2025

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Steve
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#401 Postby Steve » Sun Jan 19, 2025 2:34 pm

Sunnydays wrote:
Steve wrote:
Sunnydays wrote:Starting to get word of schools closing Tuesday and Wednesday, Santa Rosa county Florida anyway, I'm sure Escambia will be the same ( as per phone call from the School Board)


You over in Pace or Milton?


Pace...down towards Floridatown


Gotcha. I’m between the mall and airport so roughly N 12th and Airport Road.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#402 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jan 19, 2025 2:50 pm

18z HRRR starting to come into view....high resolution only goes out to 48 hrs.

Snow shield expanding NEImage

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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#403 Postby Jag95 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 3:25 pm

NAM coming in way south of its earlier run. Still hits the coast good, but snow doesn't extend as far north.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#404 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jan 19, 2025 3:28 pm

NAM dumps 7 inches on Mobile :eek:
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#405 Postby Jag95 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 3:32 pm

Ivanhater wrote:NAM dumps 7 inches on Mobile :eek:


I guess it's the lake effect off of Lake Pontchartrain(j/k). I prefer the earlier run though.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#406 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jan 19, 2025 3:36 pm

Nam clobbers the Gulf coast...7 plus inches for South Alabama and NW Florida.

What I'm seeing in the models now is widespread 2-3 inches and models are starting to see an intense snowband setting up giving a swath of 6 plus Image

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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#407 Postby Steve » Sun Jan 19, 2025 3:41 pm

Jag95 wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:NAM dumps 7 inches on Mobile :eek:


I guess it's the lake effect off of Lake Pontchartrain(j/k). I prefer the earlier run though.



Lake effect is only a couple miles off the shore but maybe it’s picking up lift/juice from the warmer lake?
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#408 Postby bella_may » Sun Jan 19, 2025 3:46 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Nam clobbers the Gulf coast...7 plus inches for South Alabama and NW Florida.

What I'm seeing in the models now is widespread 2-3 inches and models are starting to see an intense snowband setting up giving a swath of 6 plus https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250119/13566a98c299bb6e8562f83a698ac2aa.jpg

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I’m right on the line between 3-7 inches lol. I’m fine with 3, not sure i want 7 however :froze:
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#409 Postby Jag95 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 3:46 pm

Nah, I was just kidding. It just appears that way on the map. Winds will be from the north. I have seen these models show Gulf Effect snow before though.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#410 Postby Steve » Sun Jan 19, 2025 3:59 pm

Extreme cold advisory (wind chills as low as 9 degrees issued for se MS, S Al and w FL. NWS Slidell has issued winter storm warnings for all the MS Coast and Pearl River Co.

https://www.weather.gov/mob/
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#411 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:09 pm

18z Icon an I10 special Image

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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#412 Postby wxweenie4life » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:11 pm

I hope the NAM is correct (although I know it’s probably not!). Schools are closed Tuesday and Wednesday in Mobile and Baldwin counties. Really hoping this is the snow event that makes for incredible memories for my kiddos!
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#413 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:14 pm

18z Rdps very similar

Image

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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#414 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:16 pm

That NAM run is close to disaster for me. Hope that’s not the start of another south trend. They don’t seem to stop.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#415 Postby bella_may » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:25 pm

MississippiWx wrote:That NAM run is close to disaster for me. Hope that’s not the start of another south trend. They don’t seem to stop.

I’d be sweating if I lived between Hattiesburg and Jackson. I would be surprised if it shifted any further south though.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#416 Postby NativeFloridaGirl » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:26 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Nam clobbers the Gulf coast...7 plus inches for South Alabama and NW Florida.

What I'm seeing in the models now is widespread 2-3 inches and models are starting to see an intense snowband setting up giving a swath of 6 plus https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250119/13566a98c299bb6e8562f83a698ac2aa.jpg
That puts 8 inches at my house! :froze:
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#417 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:28 pm

lol…..watch you’ll end up getting 8 inches of snow.

MississippiWx wrote:That NAM run is close to disaster for me. Hope that’s not the start of another south trend. They don’t seem to stop.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#418 Postby bella_may » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:29 pm

Also keep in mind a lot the accumulations (especially south of I10) will be sleet/freezing rain so those totals won’t be purely snow
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#419 Postby Jag95 » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:30 pm

MississippiWx wrote:That NAM run is close to disaster for me. Hope that’s not the start of another south trend. They don’t seem to stop.


I normally put a lot more faith in the models once we get into the 72 hour range, much less 48. But on this, it's a fine line. I won't really trust it until I see it on radar. Like said before, it's like threading a needle.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#420 Postby Steve » Sun Jan 19, 2025 4:32 pm

Jag95 wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:That NAM run is close to disaster for me. Hope that’s not the start of another south trend. They don’t seem to stop.


I normally put a lot more faith in the models once we get into the 72 hour range, much less 48. But on this, it's a fine line. I won't really trust it until I see it on radar. Like said before, it's like threading a needle.


Maybe. But I’m getting to the point where a bust would surprise me more than a boom.
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