Deep South Winter 2024-2025

[Steve]

Also we got that winter storm watch issued from 6am Tuesday to 6 am Wednesday for NWFL and s AL. Precip looks more like 2-10pm range but could be a bit on either side.

[bella_may]

Not sure how to post a picture on here, but Eric Jeansonne just posted a snow potential graphic, showing 3-6 inches possible from Diamonhead to Lucedale, 2-4 southeast of there and 1-3 for Pascagoula

[Jag95]

18Z GFS still just a little bit south of optimal. It shows the NW FL coast at 2" with a 6" band not 20 miles offshore.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS...snow shield a little further north and a touch higher totals than 12z

1st..18z
2nd 12z





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[MississippiWx]

18z GFS...snow shield a little further north and a touch higher totals than 12z

1st..18z
2nd 12z


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250119/053799a05fe477918a9684865e3904c9.jpg


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https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250119/03d5a6da53b0df416b06a15fb9c4cdf3.jpg

According to Tropical Tidbits comparison, the GFS is another slight shift south. I’m about two to three more runs from being out of the precip. This is getting to be panic time.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like Hattiesburg went from 1.8 at 12z to 2.1 at 18z....Mobile and Pensacola ticked up as well.

[Stormcenter]

Good thing is there only so many runs left. lol

18z GFS...snow shield a little further north and a touch higher totals than 12z

1st..18z
2nd 12z


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250119/053799a05fe477918a9684865e3904c9.jpg


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https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250119/03d5a6da53b0df416b06a15fb9c4cdf3.jpg

According to Tropical Tidbits comparison, the GFS is another slight shift south. I’m about two to three more runs from being out of the precip. This is getting to be panic time.

[MississippiWx]

Looks like Hattiesburg went from 1.8 at 12z to 2.1 at 18z....Mobile and Pensacola ticked up as well.

Yeah, but I’m watching the back edge of that precip shield…not necessarily the amounts.

[Steve]

You can always drive south to see it if those trends are real even if that’s not better than staying home to enjoy it.

——————

We are within 48 hours now baby. It’s gonna be fun not only to experience but to see which models had a read and when. Awesome stuff for us gulf of Mexicans.

[Ivanhater]

Nws Mobile/Pensacola

Winter Storm Likely... A potentially significant winter storm is
expected to affect areas along the northern Gulf Coast on Tuesday.
At this point, the "dry scenario" is pretty much off the table, and
with high probabilities suggesting that much of the area will see at
least 1 to 2 inches of snow, the entire local area is now under a
Winter Storm Watch from 6am Tuesday morning through 6am Wednesday
morning. Although there are still some precip-type uncertainties
along the coast, this will likely be an all-snow event for much of
the local area. Along the coast, there may be just enough of a warm
nose around the 850mb level to allow for some sleet pellets to be
mixed in. Otherwise, looking at temperature profiles prior to the
onset of precip, the dendritic growth zone looks to become fully
saturated by around 09z-12z overtop a very dry 0-1km layer. Precip
should initially start off as virga, or as very light flurries. Over
the following couple hours, the dry lower levels will begin to
moisten and cool (due to wet bulbing effects), likely bringing
surface temperatures/dew points into the 20s. By this point, heavier
snowfall rates will become realized and due to the colder
temperatures at the surface, snow will start to accumulate. Looking
at ensembles, the probability of accumulated snowfall greater than 3
inches continues to increase in comparison to previous days.
Probabilities now stand at roughly 40 to 60 percent, which is why we
are becoming increasingly concerned that this will be a significant
event for the local area. If snow amounts over three inches actually
occurred at KMOB, this would place us in the top 5 for historic
snowfall amounts on record for the site. If three inches of snow
occurs at KPNS, this would be actually be the highest accumulating
event since the late 1800s! It should also be noted that
probabilities have been pushed further to the south over the past
couple days, with the best probabilities lining up around the I-10
corridor. Although there could still be some more minor fluctuations
to where the heaviest snowfall will occur, these trends could lead
to some major problems along our coastal counties. We urge residents
and visitors to continue monitoring the forecast closely over the
next few days and to begin preparing for this event.

[bella_may]

NWS Mobile becoming increasingly concerned about a significant winter storm for most of the area. Right now predicting 2-4 inches for almost the entire area.

[Ivanhater]

18z Euro anyone?

Not expecting much change. We are only seeing very miniscule changes at this point

[Ivanhater]

Nws Mobile/Pensacola updated snowfall


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[MississippiWx]

I’m a huge fan of this 18z Euro run. It ticked back north and west.

[bella_may]

I’m a huge fan of this 18z Euro run. It ticked back north and west.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/GRSQH9H/IMG-5335.jpg [/url]

Isn’t totals up from 12z also?

[Ivanhater]

I’m a huge fan of this 18z Euro run. It ticked back north and west.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/GRSQH9H/IMG-5335.jpg [/url]

See. There you go! Think 18z Euro and GFS ticked up for you

[Ivanhater]

Looks like bigger totals on 18z Euro



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[MississippiWx]

I’m a huge fan of this 18z Euro run. It ticked back north and west.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/GRSQH9H/IMG-5335.jpg [/url]

Isn’t totals up from 12z also?

Yes! Looks heavier too.

[BigB0882]

Loving the trends, as little as they are. Bigger totals possible for BTR and surrounding areas on the Euro. Just one more day of model runs. Please don’t fail us now!

[Jag95]

Loving the trends, as little as they are. Bigger totals possible for BTR and surrounding areas on the Euro. Just one more day of model runs. Please don’t fail us now!

I'll take that Euro for sure. More fun for more people. With all these runs the last couple of days, there's been one constant...the Canadian. The rest are nerve wracking.