Texas Winter 2024-2025

[rw1984]

I've been worried about a warm nose all along... Very hard to get a Gulf winter storm without it

But maybe it's wrong too who knows. I mean if it's gonna not exist this would be the storm

What model is this in reference to? I haven’t seen anyone really mention a warm nose recently.


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The maps above showing sleet and freezing rain lately HRRR and NAM

I thought the NAM has been showing this all along for the most part. It seems to have been showing less QPF in general as well. HRRR doesn’t lower snow totals, it just keeps moving the whole system South into the gulf.


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[SoupBone]

This is going to end up a hilarious bust. From 3"+ to nothing. I get how hard these setups can be, but this would be really bad.

[sphelps8681]

I am in Lumberton, Tx with 4-6 in of snow and 40+ hours of below freezing. Anyone want this stuff? I don't. Had to figure out that it might be wise to elevate the generator so ventilation could continue. If not you need to keep snow build up from around the generator in either case. Did not know this about snow. We know how to work a hurricane. Learning.

[Gotwood]

Cooled off quick 19 IMBY dew 10

[Gotwood]

This is going to end up a hilarious bust. From 3"+ to nothing. I get how hard these setups can be, but this would be really bad.

For 2 weeks my area was modeled to get 6-10 inches sometimes it showed a foot or more. Hell just 3 days prior TWC posted snowfall amounts for DFW 8-12 inches. I ended up with half an inch of snow and almost an inch of rain.

[Ntxw]

What happened in DFW last week (late evening event) was that the trough became too positive tilted and colder air aloft filtered in quickly and shut off the valves. If the fail mode does happen, it would be because the trough is too tilted positive and cold pushing everything out in front, dry air filters in quickly before a fast transition can occur.

[txtwister78]

HRRR getting a lot of attention from folks on social media. It definitely got some folks across the Texas weather network talking. Lol

[Stratton23]

WRF models say hold you're horses NAM and HRRR, much more moisture in land

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What happened in DFW last week (late evening event) was that the trough became too positive tilted and colder air aloft filtered in quickly and shut off the valves. If the fail mode does happen, it would be because the trough is too tilted positive and cold pushing everything out in front, dry air filters in quickly before a fast transition can occur.

The axis of the trough at 500mb does look a bit different. It's digging a bit deeper.

[Stratton23]

no changes on the 00z RGEM, still a large expansive shield of frozen precipitation well in land

[cheezyWXguy]

WRF models say hold you're horses NAM and HRRR, much more moisture in land

The wrf models aren’t bad at forecasting precip from what I’ve seen in the past, so I think there’s some hope, but I am a bit concerned with the southward trend in the other models. At least there’s still some spread in the models, so suppression isn’t a sure bet. Let’s see how the NWS adjusts with the next forecast.

[Stratton23]

cheezyWXguy the 00z rgem isnt budging either, similar to the wrf models

[Ntxw]

What happened in DFW last week (late evening event) was that the trough became too positive tilted and colder air aloft filtered in quickly and shut off the valves. If the fail mode does happen, it would be because the trough is too tilted positive and cold pushing everything out in front, dry air filters in quickly before a fast transition can occur.

The axis of the trough at 500mb does look a bit different. It's digging a bit deeper.

It will go positive tilt and shear out in about 36-48 hours with a strong 700-850mb front, similar to the DFW event. A lot will depend on the front end 'thump' before that happens how much moisture return from the gulf low before it occurs.

I want our friends in Houston to get this snow, they deserve it missing out quite a few times in the city proper.

[txwxwatcher]

Oz ICON has about half a foot of snow in Houston.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What happened in DFW last week (late evening event) was that the trough became too positive tilted and colder air aloft filtered in quickly and shut off the valves. If the fail mode does happen, it would be because the trough is too tilted positive and cold pushing everything out in front, dry air filters in quickly before a fast transition can occur.

The axis of the trough at 500mb does look a bit different. It's digging a bit deeper.

It will go positive tilt and shear out in about 36-48 hours with a strong 700-850mb front, similar to the DFW event. A lot will depend on the front end 'thump' before that happens how much moisture return from the gulf low before it occurs.

I want our friends in Houston to get this snow, they deserve it missing out quite a few times in the city proper.

Yeah frontgenesis at the 700-850 level will be very strong.

[Ralph's Weather]

Man these recent storms have been a wild ride. Both with last minute big changes. This one could still shift back better but tends didn't look good. Still some model support for a big event but that's dwindling.

[IcyTundra]

0Z ICON looks pretty good for everyone with wide spread 4-8 inches across most of the Houston metro. Southern Harris County and Galveston County get the most snow according to the ICON though.

[txwxwatcher]

Man these recent storms have been a wild ride. Both with last minute big changes. This one could still shift back better but tends didn't look good. Still some model support for a big event but that's dwindling.

Looking great for Houston.

[SoupBone]

0Z ICON looks pretty good for everyone except with wide spread 4-8 inches across most of the Houston metro. Southern Harris County and Galveston County get the most snow according to the ICON though.

Yeah, so NW Harris is gonna get a dry slot and nothing.

[Steve]

HRRR getting a lot of attention from folks on social media. It definitely got some folks across the Texas weather network talking. Lol

Boycott weather social media imho. It’s as bad as every other category.