Deep South Winter 2024-2025

[BigB0882]

How much credit do we give The Weather Channel? I’m only asking because they suddenly dropped our snow chance percentage from 100% to 90%. I know, that’s still amazing but I’m trying to figure out WHY? I haven’t seen any run come in showing no snow. If anything, the latest Euro run should have them up the totals again and keep odds at 100%. I know it doesn’t matter but I’m genuinely curious how they create their forecast because I’ve noticed it changed multiple times a day.

[MississippiWx]

How much credit do we give The Weather Channel? I’m only asking because they suddenly dropped our snow chance percentage from 100% to 90%. I know, that’s still amazing but I’m trying to figure out WHY? I haven’t seen any run come in showing no snow. If anything, the latest Euro run should have them up the totals again and keep odds at 100%. I know it doesn’t matter but I’m genuinely curious how they create their forecast because I’ve noticed it changed multiple times a day.

I give TWC no credit. They used to be good, but worthless now. I’m sure it was just a computer generated percentage. Best to go by what your local NWS office has been saying and they have steadily increased your percentages by the day.

[Stormcenter]

Well put it this way, if this were a hurricane and percentage went down from a 100% to 90% that it was going to hit your area I believe you would still think you were still in big trouble. So my point is, it’s probably going to snow.

How much credit do we give The Weather Channel? I’m only asking because they suddenly dropped our snow chance percentage from 100% to 90%. I know, that’s still amazing but I’m trying to figure out WHY? I haven’t seen any run come in showing no snow. If anything, the latest Euro run should have them up the totals again and keep odds at 100%. I know it doesn’t matter but I’m genuinely curious how they create their forecast because I’ve noticed it changed multiple times a day.

[Steve]

How much credit do we give The Weather Channel? I’m only asking because they suddenly dropped our snow chance percentage from 100% to 90%. I know, that’s still amazing but I’m trying to figure out WHY? I haven’t seen any run come in showing no snow. If anything, the latest Euro run should have them up the totals again and keep odds at 100%. I know it doesn’t matter but I’m genuinely curious how they create their forecast because I’ve noticed it changed multiple times a day.

I don’t use them except live event coverage sometime. I only use local stations and NWS and don’t factor in computer fed forecasts.

[TallyTracker]

NAM 3k is now in range of the Big Bend area. 4-8 inches of snow are shown in that area and it’s still snowing at the end of the run!

NWS TLH has been very conservative with their forecasts and rightfully so. Currently they think it’s gonna be mostly ice with less than an inch of snow east of the Apalachicola. I think with most models showing higher totals, that should go up. The only major model that matches their scenario seems to be the ICON. All others are 2-8 inches.

[Jag95]

The newest NAM dumps 7-9 inches on the norther GC, the Euro looks better, but others still not so much. They're all over the place.

[Steve]

FV3 Hi-Res. Houma, LA is second with southern Vermillion getting most accumulation. 3” for Pensacola.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[cajungal]

FV3 Hi-Res. Houma, LA is second with southern St Mary Parish getting most accumulation. 3” for Pensacola.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

I am just to the east of Morgan city.

[BigB0882]

FV3 Hi-Res. Houma, LA is second with southern Vermillion getting most accumulation. 3” for Pensacola.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

I’m not familiar with this model. Totals seem less than most others. Is there a reason to pay more attention to it than others? Is it just another model?

[Steve]

FV3 Hi-Res. Houma, LA is second with southern Vermillion getting most accumulation. 3” for Pensacola.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

I’m not familiar with this model. Totals seem less than most others. Is there a reason to pay more attention to it than others? Is it just another model?

I fd up. It’s actually edge of Vermillion Parish. FV3 is part of our future suite. It’s better than the Nam and HRRR imho but I don’t have exp with it in winter. More reading.

https://www.weather.gov/news/fv3

[Brent]

How much credit do we give The Weather Channel? I’m only asking because they suddenly dropped our snow chance percentage from 100% to 90%. I know, that’s still amazing but I’m trying to figure out WHY? I haven’t seen any run come in showing no snow. If anything, the latest Euro run should have them up the totals again and keep odds at 100%. I know it doesn’t matter but I’m genuinely curious how they create their forecast because I’ve noticed it changed multiple times a day.

I give TWC no credit. They used to be good, but worthless now. I’m sure it was just a computer generated percentage. Best to go by what your local NWS office has been saying and they have steadily increased your percentages by the day.

If it's the app... That thing changes every 5 minutes. Sometimes I'll take a screenshot and by the time it refreshes it's changed

So no I don't look at them seriously much

[Steve]

Icon focusing on S LA with 6+ across most of the southern part of the state. And Houston.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... -imp&fh=72

[MississippiWx]

Most everything has come north slightly tonight so far on the early runs. Good start.

[Steve]

RDPS similar but more extensive than ICON. Houston to New Orleans 6-9”

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[Jag95]

Hard to believe there's still no winter storm warning for the Mobile/Pensacola area. I mean, we are down south where 1 inch can cause havoc.

[Steve]

Hard to believe there's still no winter storm warning for the Mobile/Pensacola area. I mean, we are down south where 1 inch can cause havoc.

The criteria is generally 12-24 hours and rarely 36. We are 36+ hours out. We have an extreme cold warning and winter storm watch which is all we need for now.

[Steve]

GFS is running. So far it’s focused on SE TX and SWLA

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... 2000&fh=45

[Jag95]

P'cola picked up 5" on that GFS run. No room to spare though.

[Steve]

CMC a little south but beast mode.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2000&fh=66

[Steve]

NWS got us at 33, but I just went outside to smoke in shorts and it’s cold as tf. 38 +/- hours until go time. Again I don’t care if we get pellets of sleet or blizzards. I just want something. They’ve been greedy and pouting on the Tx winter thread.