Texas Winter 2024-2025

[txwxwatcher]

Get ready Houston! Posted minutes ago by ABC 13:

“We are predicting 3-6" of snow to be likely for most of Houston and Harris County as well as Fort Bend and Chambers Counties. Elsewhere, 1-3" will be common. There are likely to be intense snow bands that set up over parts of Southeast Texas that could drop between 6-12" of snow, but it is impossible to determine where those will occur.”

https://abc13.com/houston-weather-forec ... ons/39346/

90% chance of heavy snow in Houston on Tuesday:

https://abc13.com/weather/

[iorange55]

Just got a really dramatic call from Travis County Emergency Services about the winter storm warning, lol.

Pretty wild for a couple inches of snow, but I guess everyone has flashbacks to 2021. Luckily, I wasn’t here for that.

[txtwister78]

ICON 12z to 0z. The trends south for most models at least are pretty clear today. The WRF members (ARW, NSSL, and FV3) and the RGEM have not budged much however from their 12z runs and now look similar to the current ICON. NAM, HRRR and RAP are in a different camp. Let the games begin. Now we wait for the GFS

[txtwister78]

No shift from GFS.

[TropicalTundra]

Moisture setting up over in Amarillo. Some should be setting up south early in the morning/mid-day

[Steve]

GFS. SETX, SWLA

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... 2000&fh=54

[South Texas Storms]

ICON 12z to 0z. The trends south for most models at least are pretty clear today. The WRF members (ARW, NSSL, and FV3) and the RGEM have not budged much however from their 12z runs and now look similar to the current ICON. NAM, HRRR and RAP are in a different camp. Let the games begin. Now we wait for the GFS

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1737288000/1737936000-A5sNZtlyemw.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1737331200/1737547200-XZTDBYMB8ZI.png

The southward trends worry me a little bit being on the northwest side of Houston, but I'm not sounding the alarms yet. Hopefully the southward shifts in the guidance stop though.

[IcyTundra]

ICON 12z to 0z. The trends south for most models at least are pretty clear today. The WRF members (ARW, NSSL, and FV3) and the RGEM have not budged much however from their 12z runs and now look similar to the current ICON. NAM, HRRR and RAP are in a different camp. Let the games begin. Now we wait for the GFS

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1737288000/1737936000-A5sNZtlyemw.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1737331200/1737547200-XZTDBYMB8ZI.png

The southward trends worry me a little bit being on the northwest side of Houston, but I'm not sounding the alarms yet. Hopefully the southward shifts in the guidance stop though.

GFS didn't really shift south on the 0Z run that just came out which is a good sign.

[cheezyWXguy]

No shift from GFS.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_kuchera/1737331200/1737482400-blT7ZQgrZ2w.png

No relation, purely coincidence obviously, but it’s interesting that the apex of the snow accumulations pretty much directly overlays the path of that long track tornado a month ago.

[SoupBone]

ICON 12z to 0z. The trends south for most models at least are pretty clear today. The WRF members (ARW, NSSL, and FV3) and the RGEM have not budged much however from their 12z runs and now look similar to the current ICON. NAM, HRRR and RAP are in a different camp. Let the games begin. Now we wait for the GFS

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1737288000/1737936000-A5sNZtlyemw.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1737331200/1737547200-XZTDBYMB8ZI.png

The southward trends worry me a little bit being on the northwest side of Houston, but I'm not sounding the alarms yet. Hopefully the southward shifts in the guidance stop though.

I'm telling you, NW Harris is going to get hosed on this one, i feel it.

[IcyTundra]

0Z CMC still looks good but is likely over doing it with most of the Houston metro getting 6-9 inches.

[Stratton23]

Eh wouldn’t necessarily say over doing, more like the potential if a heavy snow band sets up right over the metro, but still looks very good

[txtwister78]

Yeah the CMC/REGEM is in the outlier camp if the NAM is in the outlier for being too dry. Got to keep it real here.

Canadian is typically too aggressive with cold/precip and NAM is usually on the other end of the spectrum. ICON, GFS and Euro along with the WRF members more in the middle and look a bit more reasonable to me assuming they're proven right of course in terms of being further north.

[txtwister78]

Latest RAP extended. Very HRRRish still

[SoupBone]

Latest RAP extended. Very HRRRish still

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2025012003/051/snowfall_acc-imp.us_sc.png

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2025012003/051/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

I'd get almost nothing on this one.

[txtwister78]

Different topic while we wait for the Euro but unfortunately could be another challenging few days out west for folks in the LA metro region. The NWS out there has issued another PDS warning for more extreme fire danger conditions as more Santa Ana high winds are expected tomorrow into Tuesday morning. Those folks need a break from this.

[TomballEd]

Paying more attention to QPF at this point and higher res models, discounting Canadian because it is at the edge of its grid. Houston metro half inch or below looking more likely, lower end of the 3-5 inches more likely just based on total liquid equivalent

[Stratton23]

No change from the 00z Euro, id split the difference between the models and say 3-6 inches is a good bet in the metro

[Stratton23]

Regardless of the total snowfall output by models, I dont know abour yall, but im gonna be up all night tommorow just waiting to see what happens haha

[Harp.1]

Latest RAP extended. Very HRRRish still

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2025012003/051/snowfall_acc-imp.us_sc.png

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2025012003/051/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

I'd get almost nothing on this one.

We don’t know where you are.