Deep South Winter 2024-2025

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Ivanhater
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#461 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jan 20, 2025 12:49 am

00z Gfs, Canadian, Icon.

Totals ticking up, especially on the eastern side
ImageImageImage

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Re: RE: Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#462 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jan 20, 2025 12:51 am

Jag95 wrote:Hard to believe there's still no winter storm warning for the Mobile/Pensacola area. I mean, we are down south where 1 inch can cause havoc.
Saw this on their Facebook post Image

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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#463 Postby Janie2006 » Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:11 am

Looks like the NWS estimate for Mobile and surrounding locales of 2-4 inches is a rock-solid bet. Big 3 models are as consistent with that total as good ol’ Ringo is with his drumming.
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Re: RE: Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#464 Postby Jag95 » Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:37 am

Ivanhater wrote:
Jag95 wrote:Hard to believe there's still no winter storm warning for the Mobile/Pensacola area. I mean, we are down south where 1 inch can cause havoc.
Saw this on their Facebook post https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250120/75b014b7ab547e6c2fd89448e94ee1b8.jpg

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NOLA upgraded to a warning yesterday (I believe) and Jackson soon after. Like Steve, I thought warnings came at 24 hrs and 2-inch expectations. Maybe that's left up to each office. Not that it really matters, the watch should get people's attention.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#465 Postby Jag95 » Mon Jan 20, 2025 3:22 am

06Z NAM bullish as I've seen so far for the northern GC. Very suppressed though. Nearly 12 inches around Lafayette to 10 inches just west of Tally with differing amts in between.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#466 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jan 20, 2025 4:17 am

ICON looking great for heavy snow lovers in Louisiana.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#467 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jan 20, 2025 4:26 am

Some wild numbers with the 06z runs...7 to 8 inches for Pensacola ImageImageImage

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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#468 Postby bella_may » Mon Jan 20, 2025 4:27 am

WKRG out of mobile calling for up to “4 for most of the area, with totals being slightly lower south of mobile and closer to highway 84
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#469 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jan 20, 2025 4:47 am

06z GFS increases Mobile's totals ...6 inches for Pensacola Image

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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#470 Postby bella_may » Mon Jan 20, 2025 4:50 am

6z GFS ticked up!!
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#471 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jan 20, 2025 4:54 am

If these totals for Pensacola come even close. It will blow the record of 3 inches in 1885 out of the water. This is insane.

This will be once in a lifetime event for many along the Gulf coast :double:
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#472 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jan 20, 2025 4:57 am

Winter storm warning issued!

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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#473 Postby Jag95 » Mon Jan 20, 2025 5:00 am

With the models showing heavier bands to the east and west, hopefully the 1-3 inches mentioned in the warning is undercutting it. I'll take it though.
Pretty soon we'll be able to see where exactly that low develops. Every mile counts.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#474 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jan 20, 2025 5:25 am

Thought this was pretty neat comparison of the snow event in 1800s in Pensacola

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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#475 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 20, 2025 6:24 am

8 inches for New Orleans. Wow.

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1881301012348272816


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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#476 Postby Steve » Mon Jan 20, 2025 6:45 am

Damn. 8” would be crazy. That’s flirting with the all time record of 8.2 in 1895 but that was over 2 days.

1. 8.2” - 1895 (2 days)
2. 5.0” - 1881 (2 days)
3. 4.5” - 1963
4. 4.0” - 1853
5. 3.0” - 1899
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#477 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jan 20, 2025 6:49 am

Steve wrote:Damn. 8” would be crazy. That’s flirting with the all time record of 8.2 in 1895 but that was over 2 days.

1. 8.2” - 1895 (2 days)
2. 5.0” - 1881 (2 days)
3. 4.5” - 1963
4. 4.0” - 1853
5. 3.0” - 1899


I talked to my Grandma yesterday who lives on Pensacola Beach and she said it wouldn't snow there because of the salt air but we will see it in the city. She might be in the bullseye :lol:
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#478 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jan 20, 2025 6:59 am

Graf model valid 1pm tomorrow Image

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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#479 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jan 20, 2025 7:50 am

Anyone have the 06z Euro?
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Re: Deep South Winter 2024-2025

#480 Postby bella_may » Mon Jan 20, 2025 7:51 am

Not sure what the WRF-ARW model is, but it’s showing some pretty huge totals
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