Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Portastorm]

Our school district is waiting till today at noon when others around us already cancelled. All athletic events have been moved to today at 1 rather than tomorrow night. Will be interested to see development around noon on will they cancel or not. We are along 290 east of Austin

At least for me those seem like very prudent decisions.

[Ralph's Weather]

Hard to deny the model trends which over the last 24 hours have pushed the axis of moisture further and further offshore. If we do end up with a nothing burger, all of the local ISDs are going to look very foolish for calling off schools tomorrow. I didn’t understand why they didn’t at least wait until this evening to make those choices.

Schools have started making those calls almost too early here recently. Last week we were canceled and only ended up with 34F rain. There is a balance between waiting until 5am on the day of and doing it days ahead of time. At least with this storm they did it based on pretty aggressive official forecasts, that may have ended up premature. I will withhold judgement until the event occurs though as there still can be last minute surprises. I go back to last week when Tulsa got 6" while forecast 12 hours before bare showed any snow for NE OK at all and DFW was forecasted by some for 6" and they got basically nothing. There is societal pressure for ISDs to make the call early but then major backlash when they make the wrong call. It is not an enviable spot for superintendents.

Good points/comments! It’s not easy decision-making to be certain. But IMO the call didn’t need to made so early, especially with today being a holiday. They had time. And granted, I make these comments assuming the model trends for less QPF verify. Of course it doesn’t take much to create travel havoc … I’ve seen 0.05” of FZDZ shut this town down. So we shall see.

Meanwhile we have a very good, astute TV met here named Avery Tomasco. This morning he’s been all over this coming event and has noticed greater moisture return inland and earlier than anticipated. Furthermore the NAM is now showing more moisture inland and reversing the meso model trends for. Yeah, I know it’s the NAM … lol … but one must hang his hat on whatever hook he can find.

Agreed, today being a holiday should have made it easier to push the decision to today. Like you said not much has to fall to cause problems at these temps so the cancellations could still prove prudent.

[jasons2k]

And so it begins…

[Ralph's Weather]

Widespread radar returns between I70 and I20 once you get up =high away from radar sites highlighting the mid level moisture and forcing. MPing shows scattered snow reports north of I40 at this time.

[txtwister78]

If you believe the model trends- this thing looks like it’s gonna be a complete nothingburger now for most of TX outside of SETX/Houston/Beaumont.

Yet another Lucy football moment for Austin and SA. We are used to it with t-storms/rain, so why not this stuff too.

To be fair, this was never really overhyped across our area (SA). NWS kept things on the conservative side even with the WSW issuance in terms of forecast accumulations, however I still feel down here across the metro we could see enough frozen precip to cause issues with bridges and overpasses tomorrow morning with perhaps a dusting of snow before it's all said and done. Coastal lows alone (particularly how this one is going to evolve) typically don't give us the kind of moisture further inland that you need for a big event type snow. Didn't get the lift or help that we needed from the SW/Pacific this time around.

[cstrunk]

Low to mid 10s north of I20. Upper 10s to low 20s north of I10. Upper 20s to low 30s south of I10. Teens ahead of snow for E TX will allow for the ground to be cold. Nearer the coast the snow itself will have to do the work of cooling the ground. It should fall heavy enough in spots for decent accumulations south of I10. Though much lighter, the snow will be high ratio and will stick immediately across E TX.

Pretty crazy what cloud cover will do I went to bed and it was 17.5 IMBY woke up this morning and it’s 24 lol.

That mid level moisture is moving in and will bring clouds to all of N and NE TX later today. I'm sure the radar will start lighting up later today as mid level showers attempt to produce snow. Where it succeeds by later tonight will get a dusting and maybe a bit more than that.

Salt on the wound - it's going to tease us all evening/night...

[Ralph's Weather]

Pretty crazy what cloud cover will do I went to bed and it was 17.5 IMBY woke up this morning and it’s 24 lol.

That mid level moisture is moving in and will bring clouds to all of N and NE TX later today. I'm sure the radar will start lighting up later today as mid level showers attempt to produce snow. Where it succeeds by later tonight will get a dusting and maybe a bit more than that.

Salt on the wound - it's going to tease us all evening/night...

It sure will, all that blue on the radar and all we get is a few flakes most likely.

[TomballEd]

Cancelling tomorrow was a good call. A quarter to half an inch liquid equivalent storm total makes travel dangerous.

[SoupBone]

What's the current timing for the switch to sleet/mix in the Houston area? It seems like the clouds have rolled in way sooner than expected today.

And where is wxman's wall? I guess he ran out of funding to stop the winter.

[South Texas Storms]

What's the current timing for the switch to sleet/mix in the Houston area? It seems like the clouds have rolled in way sooner than expected today.

Looking like sometime this evening. And yes the clouds have rolled in several hours ahead of schedule. Hopefully this means more snow for areas farther inland tonight.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Broad area of radar returns building NW of the metroplex. DPs is very dry in the single digits so not sure anything will make it to the ground. Mention this because it is a piece of the upper level disturbance.

HP is coming in stronger than predicted, im guessing their is some frontgenesis at some level.

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS totals are unreal are I-10 corridor in Louisiana but match up with what the GRAF model has been showing the past day.

[jasons2k]

12z GFS totals are unreal are I-10 corridor in Louisiana but match up with what the GRAF model has been showing the past day.

Another takeaway from this is the banding. There is a secondary band in Northern Harris County with a dry slot in-between. These features are virtually impossible to predict so we will variable totals as you progress from the coast to the NW.

Just like any other storm, whether it's a regular rainstorm or a snowstorm, there will be spots within the broader 'lighter' areas that still have small bulls-eyes or bands of heavier amounts of precipitation.

[Snowman67]

12z GFS totals are unreal are I-10 corridor in Louisiana but match up with what the GRAF model has been showing the past day.
https://i.imgur.com/9n6PCL3.png

If that verified, the Tomball area would have a good snowfall.

[Nederlander]

Pretty quiet in here today considering it's D Day! I think all of the handwringing on locations north of I-10 missing out is a bit premature. I am still expecting 3-5 inches here in The Woodlands.

[SoupBone]

12z GFS totals are unreal are I-10 corridor in Louisiana but match up with what the GRAF model has been showing the past day.

Another takeaway from this is the banding. There is a secondary band in Northern Harris County with a dry slot in-between. These features are virtually impossible to predict so we will variable totals as you progress from the coast to the NW.

Just like any other storm, whether it's a regular rainstorm or a snowstorm, there will be spots within the broader 'lighter' areas that still have small bulls-eyes or bands of heavier amounts of precipitation.

Don't you curse us Jason. This reads much like our drought discussions from 2 years ago. You and I had rain all around us, but nothing ever hit us!

[longhornweather]

Hard to deny the model trends which over the last 24 hours have pushed the axis of moisture further and further offshore. If we do end up with a nothing burger, all of the local ISDs are going to look very foolish for calling off schools tomorrow. I didn’t understand why they didn’t at least wait until this evening to make those choices.

Schools have started making those calls almost too early here recently. Last week we were canceled and only ended up with 34F rain. There is a balance between waiting until 5am on the day of and doing it days ahead of time. At least with this storm they did it based on pretty aggressive official forecasts, that may have ended up premature. I will withhold judgement until the event occurs though as there still can be last minute surprises. I go back to last week when Tulsa got 6" while forecast 12 hours before bare showed any snow for NE OK at all and DFW was forecasted by some for 6" and they got basically nothing. There is societal pressure for ISDs to make the call early but then major backlash when they make the wrong call. It is not an enviable spot for superintendents.

Good points/comments! It’s not easy decision-making to be certain. But IMO the call didn’t need to made so early, especially with today being a holiday. They had time. And granted, I make these comments assuming the model trends for less QPF verify. Of course it doesn’t take much to create travel havoc … I’ve seen 0.05” of FZDZ shut this town down. So we shall see.

Meanwhile we have a very good, astute TV met here named Avery Tomasco. This morning he’s been all over this coming event and has noticed greater moisture return inland and earlier than anticipated. Furthermore the NAM is now showing more moisture inland and reversing the meso model trends for less precip. Yeah, I know it’s the NAM … lol … but one must hang his hat on whatever hook he can find.

It’s interesting and for some reason the Canadian has held firm with bringing solid accumulation to the Austin area. I’ve been waiting for it and the RGEM to cave but it hasn’t happened as of yet.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Models have the HP coming down the plains bigger and quicker, leading to a bit of suppression for SE Tx. Kind of wild. We didnt say that often in the Houston area. The strongest 850 omega seems to be just offshore. Still plenty of Omega up to the 700mb level coming back into the houston area, but as things stand i think if you draw a line from around Victoria to Winnie, there will be a very heavy snowband that will drop very heavy snow down at maybe 2" an hour rate.

Certainly biased, but I've been telling my friends down there, "someone is getting 8" of snow from this." Secretly, i think 10" isnt out of the question. Also, models show things starting as rain, I wouldnt expect it to rain longer than 10 minutes. Wet bulb temps are comfortably below 0C across the Houston area. Once the precip falls, it will not take long for frozen stuff to fall.

Here is the forecast nobody asked for. I hope you all enjoy it down there! I will be up watching it with yall.

[txtwister78]

Schools have started making those calls almost too early here recently. Last week we were canceled and only ended up with 34F rain. There is a balance between waiting until 5am on the day of and doing it days ahead of time. At least with this storm they did it based on pretty aggressive official forecasts, that may have ended up premature. I will withhold judgement until the event occurs though as there still can be last minute surprises. I go back to last week when Tulsa got 6" while forecast 12 hours before bare showed any snow for NE OK at all and DFW was forecasted by some for 6" and they got basically nothing. There is societal pressure for ISDs to make the call early but then major backlash when they make the wrong call. It is not an enviable spot for superintendents.

Good points/comments! It’s not easy decision-making to be certain. But IMO the call didn’t need to made so early, especially with today being a holiday. They had time. And granted, I make these comments assuming the model trends for less QPF verify. Of course it doesn’t take much to create travel havoc … I’ve seen 0.05” of FZDZ shut this town down. So we shall see.

Meanwhile we have a very good, astute TV met here named Avery Tomasco. This morning he’s been all over this coming event and has noticed greater moisture return inland and earlier than anticipated. Furthermore the NAM is now showing more moisture inland and reversing the meso model trends for less precip. Yeah, I know it’s the NAM … lol … but one must hang his hat on whatever hook he can find.

It’s interesting and for some reason the Canadian has held firm with bringing solid accumulation to the Austin area. I’ve been waiting for it and the RGEM to cave but it hasn’t happened as of yet.

Some of these models are obviously going to be wrong in a big way and so we wait to find out which one.

[Charleswachal]

There are already 1,200 power outages across houston. We are in for a rough few days with Centerpoint at the helm