Deep South Winter 2024-2025

[Steve]

Has the low formed yet? I think we’ll get more of a consensus on accumulations with the models once the low is established

I couldn't find it on any surface wind plots but I didn't look at the buoy data for the Gulf. You can see the flow around the trough and then the upper flow out of the SW. But note the clouds building back over texas.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis_swir

[Steve]

Here you go

[Steve]

It didn’t post. Sorry. Low looks to form off the S TX coast and come up.

[Jag95]

It's getting close to go time. Hopefully these models trend even 20 miles to the north over the next few hours to get the heavier bands of convection onshore. It seems a good bet that LA will rock. Past that, who knows. I'd really love that NAM to verify. Seems I saw a met say the NAM usually does well with precip amounts. I'm just not sure how well it is with other guidance compared to the other models.

[Ivanhater]

HRRR model has had a huge increase in just 12 hours for Pensacola.

Valid at 00z Wednesday, it has jumped Pensacola from 0.8 to 3.7 inches for the same time!

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[Jag95]

NAM coming in further north...and rocking.

[Steve]

NAM 3km 18z is focusing the snow a little farther north in S LA.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... -imp&m=nam

[Jag95]

Not quite as much qpf further east, but further north...which is higher on my want list..

[BigB0882]

I do not like that HRRR for Baton Rouge but do like it for Pensacola folks. I suppose we should all share in the fun rather than one small area getting hammered and everyone else around losing out.

[Ivanhater]

Hoping the Nam is right for Mississippiwx

[MississippiWx]

I do not like that HRRR for Baton Rouge but do like it for Pensacola folks. I suppose we should all share in the fun rather than one small area getting hammered and everyone else around losing out.

HRRR is really suppressing the system. Not saying it’s wrong, but it’s already WAY off the mark on dew points alone…by as much as 10-15 degrees. To me that says it’s overestimating the cold dry air a good bit.

[MississippiWx]

Hoping the Nam is right for Mississippiwx

I would certainly take it!
I’ll also take 2-4 with a smile.

[Kingarabian]

Latest NAM more snow less sleet.

[bella_may]

Interesting, the mobile NWS chose to go with the GRAF model in their accumulation forecast

[bella_may]

Interesting, the mobile NWS chose to go with the GRAF model in their accumulation forecast

That was fox 10 actually. Not the NWS

[Steve]

Icon

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

RDPS

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[bella_may]

Icon

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

RDPS

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

Models seem to be trending north this afternoon! ICON gives me another inch compared to 12Z

[Ivanhater]

NWS has upped totals to 3-5 inches for much of SW Alabama and NW Florida



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[bella_may]

NWS has upped totals to 3-5 inches for much of SW Alabama and NW Florida

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250120/e352be2bebb313547e60bb67e0690850.jpg

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Just north of Mobile… mine went from 1-3 inches to 2-4. I will take it

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS once again adjusting NORTH. Hattiesburg and Mobile have gone up in totals each run.

18z run compared to yesterday afternoon run


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