Deep South Winter 2024-2025

[Jag95]

The 18Z GFS has me in a 5-7" range. Nice. The NAM is a lot in line with this as far as coverage. They'll never pinpoint the heavier bands...but this looks great for chances. Let's GO!

[Jag95]

13" over in the Lafayette area. On the GFS. Under 24 hours out. Just wow!
Actually, just west of there...14"

[Ivanhater]

GFS keeps adjusting the position of the trough so the snow shield isn't as flat and cranking the low stronger

[Jag95]

NWS Mobile:

Impacts:

Wherever the heaviest snowfall sets up, which currently is expected
across the southern half of the area, major to historic impacts will
occur. Bitterly cold surface temperatures will allow for any snow
that falls to efficiently accumulate. Any snow that falls will take
a while to melt or sublimate post-event, allowing for snow to stick
around for quite a while, likely into the extended period.
Temperatures overnight Tuesday night will be some of the coldest we
have seen in many years. In fact, the currently forecast low of 15
in Mobile would be the coldest temperature since 2014 when the low
dropped to 14. This isn`t even factoring in the wind chills which
will be extremely cold. Wind chill values areawide are anticipated
to fall into the single digits ranging from 3 to 10, "warmest" on
the immediate coast. Wind chill values like this will be very
dangerous to exposed skin with potential for frostbite during longer
exposures. The prolonged cold temperatures could result in exposed
pipes freezing and/or bursting.

Another component of this system will be a strengthening pressure
gradient across the region thanks to a 1040mb high to our north and
a sub-1020mb surface low in the Gulf which will promote strong winds
and wind gusts, particularly nearer the coast. While we aren`t
anticipating true blizzard conditions (criteria defined as frequent
gusts in excess of 35mph, visibility below a quarter mile, and
blowing snow all for 3 consecutive hours), we can`t rule out
temporary near blizzard conditions along the coast where at least
moderate snowfall and frequent gusts to 30mph can be expected
reducing visibility below a half mile at times. While power outages
are not a major concern at this time given the fluffier snow being
less prone to accumulating on trees and powerlines they can`t be
ruled out where any tree branches fall onto powerlines due to snow
piling up on tree branches and winds breaking the branches off.
Needless to say we are looking at a beyond bonkers winter storm
event in the forecast area that hasn`t been seen in many years. A
Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 6am Tuesday morning
through 6am Wednesday morning. An Extreme Cold Warning remains in
effect throughout the entire event given the anticipated wind chills
remaining near or below 20 during the day and in the single digits
during the night.

[Ivanhater]

Just WOW


Confidence has increased in a major to historic winter storm for the
forecast area, particularly across the southern half of the area in
the vicinity of the I-10 corridor Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening. Forecast guidance this morning and so far early this
afternoon continues to favor a corridor of heavier snow nearer the
coast, with snowfall totals throughout the event on the order of 1
to 3 inches areawide, locally up to 4 or 5 inches over the southern
half of the area. Confidence on higher snowfall totals exists across
the southern half of the forecast area in the vicinity of the I-10
corridor. This storm has the potential to be historic for portions
of the forecast area, with Mobile`s 24hr snowfall record being 6"
set in 1895, and Pensacola`s 24hr snowfall record being 3" set in
1895.

[Steve]

I’m about 2 miles south of the I-10 so I’m the corridor. Lfg!

[Steve]

Here’s the UK which again has only a narrow band of snowfall. I’m thinking it’s not going to score the coup and will just remain an outlier.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... -imp&fh=66

[Ivanhater]

Here’s the UK which again has only a narrow band of snowfall. I’m thinking it’s not going to score the coup and will just remain an outlier.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... -imp&fh=66

The UK is already backtracking fast

[Sunnydays]

Never in my wildest dreams, would I have thought NWS Mobile would mention the words "blizzard conditions" in one of their discussions or updates for Mobile, Alabama. Get outta here lol

[Ivanhater]

18z UK compared to 18z UK yesterday valid for same time....HUGE change


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[Steve]

After that 18 tomorrow night Ima be looking forward to 60’s by Sunday. Haha. I fn hate the cold except when accompanied by winter weather.

[Jag95]

Hey Steve, how about this little blurb from the discussion..lol. Bay effect snow! Freaking wild man.

Another unique aspect to this setup
is potential for some bay enhancement of the snowfall given the
northerly fetch over Mobile Bay, this could lead to some locally
higher snow totals across Dauphin Island and/or adjacent coastal
portions of mainland Mobile County.

[Steve]

Hey Steve, how about this little blurb from the discussion..lol. Bay effect snow! Freaking wild man.

Another unique aspect to this setup
is potential for some bay enhancement of the snowfall given the
northerly fetch over Mobile Bay, this could lead to some locally
higher snow totals across Dauphin Island and/or adjacent coastal
portions of mainland Mobile County.

Yeah that’s nuts. I brought that up with pcolaman earlier since he lives on the east side of Escambia bay. It’s much narrower than mobile bay but ?

[Steve]

But dauphin island is south of the bay on the west side. I don’t know what kind of dynamics for snow that’s coming up from the wsw or sw could enhance snow there. Usually lake effect is on the shore downwind of whatever lake the wind is blowing across. Maybe out front of the low since the winds would probably be northeast before it passed? If so that could mean me being about 2 miles west of Escambia Bay could get some enhanced. Idk.

[pcolaman]

I’m about 2 miles south of the I-10 so I’m the corridor. Lfg!

I'm on the back side of the Navy base in Pensacola. Curious how much snow happens here.

[BigB0882]

I just want to say how fun this has been tracking this for what feels like a month! Thanks to everyone for sharing their knowledge and model outputs. I truly hope we all get a historic snowfall tomorrow.

[Jag95]

Light snow starting to show up on radar in east Texas.

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current/msy

[Steve]

I’m about 2 miles south of the I-10 so I’m the corridor. Lfg!

I'm on the back side of the Navy base in Pensacola. Curious how much snow happens here.

My bad p. It was sunnydays that lives over by Floridatown.

[Frank P]

Light snow starting to show up on radar in east Texas.

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current/msy

Air is awfully dry, wonder if it’s making it to the ground?

[Steve]

Light snow starting to show up on radar in east Texas.

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current/msy

Wonder if it’s falling or caught in the atmosphere? Guess I need to check the Texas thread. Initially there was some snow and sleet but mostly an arc of freezing rain and ice on the models. If it’s starting from snow, that’s potentially a good sign.